Jemma Croton

I hope I’m posting this in the right place. Can I put out a plea to you all? As you probably all know now we have extreme cold set to invade our wet and windy island(s) next week. I’m not teaching you guys to suck eggs, but for anyone reading that isn’t part of the community; based on current runs temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for a prolonged period. Add in wind chill and some days we’re seeing temps as low as -16 in places. Snow will also be a very real hazard potentially nationwide and due to the longevity of the cold incursion ice could forming anywhere but especially on top of snow (or even worse, compacted snow). With that in mind can I implore you to do all you can to help the vulnerable and needy in between sledding, snowball fights and Olaf building. The elderly may struggle to venture out, mothers may not be able to use their prams to leave their home, those with physical disabilities or mobility issues may be unable to (or fearful to) get out and about, some may not drive or live near a shop to get essentials etc etc You can help those in need and here are some suggestions: Help clear a neighbours path for them Use public grit boxes to grit your local area where gritters do not venture Cook extra at dinner and take it to someone in need Pick up shopping for anyone stranded at home Offer company to anyone who can’t get out and is isolated Offer to take a neighbours children out with you if there are restrictions preventing their guardians doing so. The list could be endless, those are just a few ideas that could really help others through the cold. The other extremely vulnerable demographic are the homeless. Homeless people die in cold weather every winter but clearly the (potentially) biggest cold spell since 2010 or perhaps longer is going to have the potential to claim more lives of the homeless. Check your local council for any procedures for alerting them to a homeless person at risk: Many towns and cities have homeless shelters and may be able to send someone out to speak to them. Consider purchasing warm socks, hats and gloves for any homeless you see. These can be picked up so cheap in Primark etc. Rummage your wardrobes and see what warm clothes you have to donate. Ask for friends and family the same. Donate any spares coats and shoes you have Donate any spare blankets you may have You could deliver these in person or call your local shelters and find out what they are in need of If you see a homeless person, consider buying them a warm drink and something to eat. It would probably mean so much if you actually took them somewhere warm to eat with your company but a warm pastry or take out food would also do. Again this list could be endless, I’m just trying to give some examples. Please remember those who are vulnerable during this cold snap and endeavour to help them in any way you can. (This advice should apply all year round really but is extra important we take care of each other in situations that may put others at risk)

I understand why emotions are so high after years and years of backtracking. We’re all hoping for this insane cold spell but let’s be honest, there wasn’t much room for improvement from some runs the past couple of days and some wataering down is to be expected. I think the problem isn’t just on the recent run(s) but people assuming this is the first step in it all crumbling away. After all, that’s what usually happens. But, take a step back and we still have models showing the best chance of snow and deep cold for years. That still has cross model agreement regardless of the specifics of time or potential inches. Remember last week when we had massive swings from early spring on a set of runs and then back to the set of Frozen in the same 24 hrs. We pulled it back from that and the cold is getting closer by the day. Come on guys. Don’t be downcast or bickery. We have cold coming... and glorious snow. Take that frustration and uh... ?Let It Go? (Sorry, couldn't resist)

Totally set my alarm just to check the 00Z. This is just insane stuff. I am shooketh

WOAH, WOAH, WOAH GUYS. I have NEVER seen a chart quite like this one... hold onto your pants... the Polar Vortex has only gone and turned FULL LOBSTER ??

I’m so out of the loop right now. Trust half term to fall on prime model watching week. Can some one sum up the past few days runs to me to save me having to read pages on the MOD thread?

I put out a tweet to Ian Ferguson. He’s replied they are looking around the 18th still to see effects. Plus this from MV gives hope

Jesus. Even I need a shot of Kraken with the models this morning. Dismal viewing. Lucky I have blind hope that things will change for the better the next few days, this is more tense than some choice episodes of Breaking Bad.

Ugh. I forget how mean the cold, dry air is for us asthmatics. I have type 1 Brittle asthma which is nasty but better since I was moved to Symicort turbohaler. It’s an expensive drug so sometimes hard to get prescribed (I had to have a very nasty attack and hospital stay to get it) but it’s really good. Might be an option to help you with the cold. In regards to the weather for this month, I’m staying irritatingly optimistic. We’ve seen the models get it wrong time and time again and my snow starved self HAS to believe that the ECM has it wrong these past few runs. I need it to be wrong. It’s been one heck of a crappy winter (for other reasons besides weather) and snowmaggedon would be it’s one redeeming quality. So yes, optimistic.

We have. I’ve sat through it all painfully year after year but this situation is markedly different. We know that this SSW is happening and, not only that, it’s set to last 10 bloody days. This is phenomenal stuff and there’s no reason right now to throw in the towel. Come on... cheer up Charlie etc xx

Guys. Come on. The models are topsy turvy and swinging one way to the other but don’t get disheartened yet. The SSW isn’t underway yet and until it is I don’t think any models will have a proper handle on how things might progress. Ride it out and wait for the runs tomorrow onwards xx

For anyone bummed out with the flipping and flopping in output just now. The SSW isn’t underway until tomorrow so it certainly doesn’t surprise me that the models can’t decide what to put out. I should imagine that runs from maybe the 18Z tomorrow but certainly 00Z/06Z Monday will start giving a clearer picture once the SSW is actually underway. Take the charts today and early tomorrow with a shot of tequila (I recommend with cinnamon and orange over salt and lemon) . Yes, there will be the doom-sayers lauding each less favourable run over us but until that SSW (and remember this is a pretty spectacular looking SSW) is underway, don’t let them rain on your parade. Stay strong snow squad ??

Actually Dr A Butler posted out on twitter showing a VQTR with effects showing from the 15th. This was a few days ago but the 15th date expectation isn’t without foundation

I’m utterly in awe of the models this eve after the dubious showing from the previous 2 runs. In 2 days time the SSW will have kicked in and we’ll (hopefully) have a bit of a clearer picture for how next week and onwards might go. If this all verifies I will have to get an adult Elsa costume and float around yelling “the cold never bothered me anyway” while those fools that are fed up with the cold grumble and grouse.

Bit off topic but... Marry me? This was like weather porn ? On a serious note, how refreshing is it to come here after a busy day to find reams of beautiful charts being shared and talked about with excitement rather than the bickering that’s been present the past few days or so. I’m really amazed by some of what the models have shown tonight and the rather consistent agreement/expectation for a QTR. I’m the resident weather nerd among my friends (both online and in real life) and spend winters model watching and then putting posts out with charts and explanations to try and help them people understand what is coming but also wording it in a way that hopefully helps them learn about the factors in play for weather on our (snow depreived) islands. I put rather a lot of time in and yet seems like I’m always the one of us that misses out. So desperate to get my payday. I might even do snow angels in a swimsuit if the weather gods give me reason to. I can’t really say more than what you guys have already said on things. Brilliant synoptics and some really great posts today on it all. You guys are awesome. Even the GFS is awesome right now!!

This is also backed up on Twitter by DrAB and Fergie who tweeted about a VQTR of 3 days on one run

As far as I can tell many (who know more than I) are expecting a very FTR. Dr Amy (Butler) posted yesterday (I think) on twitter showing a FTR of just 3 days from the SSW event. It’s worth bearing in mind when looking at the charts as clearly the MetO are picking this up as exceptionally fast (Fergie RT Dr AB post which just adds more weight to it in my eyes) right now and I’m not sure how well the models will handle things happening quite so quickly. It’s certainly looking like a very exciting period of model watching continues and it’s great to see that despite downgrades happening and things today not giving us what was expected towards the end of last week, the models continue to keep giving us a reason to keep our eyes on the charts and that flicker of hope alive for those of us that live for this time of year. I’m dreading spring. Don’t get me wrong, I love spring as a season. Everyday is a nature school day for the children and having the garden to get invested in and plants for them to grow is most welcome after the winter months. But doing all this, checking each run and poring over them 4 times a day gives me so much focus for my overactive mind and I really miss it when it’s gone. Tried getting into model watching at other times of year but it just doesn’t interest me. So I’m extremely happy to continue having these excitIng Synoptics continue to feature for the foreseeable future.

Appreciate this isn’t strictly a weather model as it’s the rainfall radar but I’ve been tracking it since 4am with friends all over and is reliably falling as snow with the sleet consistently stopping as it comes inland. Ironically there seem to be an additional band of snow (over Gloucester ish area on this SS) which from following it seems it’s residual PPN that came in from the SE yesterday, has hit the front from the west and reversed while organising itself into an additional front that wasn’t forecast. It’s ironic because that front is just creeping over me, definitely falling as snow and yet today is the first time it’s changed to say snow won’t happen today. It’s a perfect example of how snow can pop up anywhere when the conditions are right.

Just want to say that this is a really super analogy Chio. I used it to explain things to my son with autism and it made sense to him straight away. It’s a gift to be able to put things into terms even those withoutbthe additional knowledge can understand

Can I ask someone... anyone... a favour? I should start my saying I have autism spectrum disorder and, while I am very high functioning and pretty intelligent, I often hit mental hurdles with some things which seem impossible to overcome. I’m trying to look at the options for distance learning in meteorology but I’m just getting so overwhelmed every time I try and look and I’m basically hitting a major hurdle which is preventing me from continuing to search and finding answers. Like the letters and descriptors are confusing me to buggery. I’ll love anyone forever if they can link me to some relevant courses to investigate. This is to further my learning and hopefully getting a meaningful qualification in forecasting for the U.K. I don’t know if I would do anything with it but my son (who also has autism) has additional needs which aren’t compatible with my working right now and I would love to put my natural passion here to good use and have more qualifications under my belt.

In sorry, I’m still very much learning about SSW’s. l know this is pie in the sky stuff but can those in the know give a basic (I won’t hold you to it) prediction as to how this one may effect us when it’s occuring so late in winter?

I’m worse. Put out a very public Facebook forecast ?

Tuesday is going to be bloody payday down here with snow by the looks of it. If the 18Z and 00Z continue this 9 run consistent trend then I am buying the kids a new sled tomorrow ?

Another blinding run. I’m keeping track and it’s now 8 solid runs supporting this prognosis with upgrades. I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t now verify

Good morning Walsall. Only 4 hrs and 1 run before you eat humble pie ?

Nipples like bloody bullets is what it means. i am seriously in awe of this 18Z run. I’m almost too scared to sleep in case I wake to see it’s all been undone. I’ve a feeling though that this night just be a pretty memorable period of weather (and indeed model watching) the past 36 hrs or so have been riveting to say the least