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Ǝssex Ǝasterly

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    Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Essex Easterly.

    Is it strange that this far out almost every model is showing the same kind of story?

     

    A well developed / slightly developed low, sat over some area of the UK.

     

    I know the track and intensity will change 100 times before next weekend, but each model is showing the same kind of LPS, is this common?

    Possible Storm This Weekend Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Essex Easterly.

    It looks look like the first week in November could be a stormy one. .

     

    Some monsters showing up on the GEFS.

     

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    Wow. Last night was pretty exciting, but that chart is just mental!

     

    Not too many people are gonna want to see something like that forming near our shores, the UK will be ripped to shreds Posted Image

     

    • Like 3

    Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Essex Easterly.

    Good helpful,post. I was going to ask if anyone knows whether that chart takes into account the level of exposure in any given location. For example obviously it'll be windier at sea than a few miles inland. Would that chart make that allowance. Possibly yes as it shows the windiest location in the channel, but that could be the windiest regardless do topography - we don't know.Can anyone give a link to the NAE (not on netweather as far as I know) and at what time the charts come out please?

     

     

    Here's a link - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=15&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

     

    Every 6 hours

    • Like 1

    Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Here is another update from a teleconference that I was in an hour ago with the Met Office and various aviation agencies and departments.

     

    The low is expected to track across a line drawn Milford Haven to the Wash. The strongest winds are expected to be around the Bristol/Cardiff area between 0000-0300 identified by a feature on recent high res modelling to the western side of the low (described as a pressure surge on the western flank). The estimate for these areas is a wind speed of 45-50KTS with gusts of around 70KTS with a 30% chance of gusts in excess of 70KTS.

     

    The London area should see winds averaging around 40KTS between 0300-0600 with a chance of gusts in the 60KT region.

     

    The south coast of England should see mean winds between 40-50KT with gusts of 60-70KTS. Exposed coasts and hills may see higher mean wind speeds and gusts but not expected to be much greater than 70KTS.As an aside, the night time flying ban at Heathrow has been lifted for tonight to allow eastbound transatlantic traffic to land early. Eastbound flights are projected to arrive earier due to a strong jet.

     

    The low system should clear England by 0900.

     

    Information accurate as of 1430 this afternoon using industry specific information.

     

    Is that jet stream? or Sting jet?

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