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ScottishSnowStorm

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Everything posted by ScottishSnowStorm

  1. ScottishSnowStorm
    Everything still looking good this morning from the ens yesterdays 12z EC and todays 0z EC both have stellar means the 0z op looks like it went a bit wrong compared to its ens And the GEFS 18z then 0z and 6z all looking good apart from a few stray runs but they aren't all going to be the same Cold still looks on track and incoming
  2. ScottishSnowStorm
    Can't complain about the trend in the ECM ens for here in fife yesterdays 12z todays 0z and todays 12z they are on there way down
  3. ScottishSnowStorm
    The coldest weather will inevitably transfer to the north though as the block moves into greenland
  4. ScottishSnowStorm
    Not alot of change in the ensembles for fife from the 6z to the 12z the mean actually a little colder at the end
  5. ScottishSnowStorm
    Does anyone have the ECM clusters to post again that are causing so much cause for concern because if it is the same ones i am thinking of then they still show heights over greenland and a cold solution anyway
  6. ScottishSnowStorm
    So many people in here looking to when this cold spell is going to disapper from the models even while there is so much support for it through all aspects of the models. Just sit back and enjoy the viewing and only look for things to derail when there is actually anything in the output to show that we will miss out because all we are seeing from now is things of beauty and nothing to suggest we will miss out
  7. ScottishSnowStorm
    Fantastic GEFS 6z ens for here in fife the mean never getting above -5 even out to the end and a good number of runs still around the -10 mark Bring it on
  8. ScottishSnowStorm
    The cold coming in a little later wouldn't be all that bad as the timing of the cold coming in is due to the block tilting but this is the point the block starts to cut off the cold pool from the siberian pool so a little longer just means the deeper the cold could get
  9. ScottishSnowStorm
    Looking like the reload might be better on this run
  10. ScottishSnowStorm
    They're all different times
  11. ScottishSnowStorm
    Only upgrade from here would be the whole bank of coldest u uppers moving from eastern siberia directly into europe
  12. ScottishSnowStorm
    You should be using the 126 12z for side by side comparison
  13. ScottishSnowStorm
    To me it looks later as well the problems are in the run the ens seem pretty solid with the mean up till the point the high sets for the easterly and then it goes to the mild side of the ens I am in fife the scottish central belt
  14. ScottishSnowStorm
    Even if the easterly is missed initially i can't say hieghts going into greenland is things going tits up especially when you would look at the whole PV coming round the top into siberia and if you look at the 850 charts all the deep cold would be coming round our side of the globe and even the ECM 240 chart shows a good pool of cold uppers moving south that would link up with the cold uppers going to the south of the UK
  15. ScottishSnowStorm
    ECM was always modeling the cold to take longer to arrive with us than the GFS has been
  16. ScottishSnowStorm
    12z a bit worse for me here in fife compared to the 6z more scatter early on but slightly better towards the end A few talking about longevity of this cold spell well i did see a tweet earlier today from micheal ventrice over in the states and he was saying he reckoned that once we get locked into this cold pattern and he was talking greenland hieghts his thinking was europe would be in the cold for even 4+ weeks
  17. ScottishSnowStorm
    Looks very much like the ECM ?
  18. ScottishSnowStorm
    Full ensembles for fife are stunning A definite upgrade from the 0z
  19. ScottishSnowStorm
    Short ensembles for fife and in good agreement 5 runs down to -15c there
  20. ScottishSnowStorm
    Definite step forward here compared to the 18z hopefully one for everyone as well
  21. ScottishSnowStorm
    Short ensembles are looking good for here in fife with the mean around -10c
  22. ScottishSnowStorm
    Surely we are going to go through a second period of model volatility like we have just been through with how it has handled the warming with how they handle how things will pan out come the second warming? We have got the first part getting there with heights to the north east and an easterly looking on the cards now we have to wait and see how the next part of volatility works out with concerns to the second warming
  23. ScottishSnowStorm
    Don't know if it is a site issue or something but the GFS 18z op looks way off compared to the rest for central belt here in scotland Just noticed it says 12th as well and should be 13th and should be tonights 18z up by now surely?
  24. ScottishSnowStorm
    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/938494181617618944
  25. ScottishSnowStorm
    https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/936655558517641216
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