ScottishSnowStorm

Show charts where the atlantic is waking up?

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That was my thinking with talk of an eruption becoming worse so there must have been signs but all of a sudden it has just died off but sometimes you hear of volcanoes developing blockages which build to a far more eruptive experience

Another model that splits the energy in the atlantic and also looks similar to the rest over eastern canada so pattern less likely to flatten out and still chances of a northerly

Can it be FI when 4 models in medium range are all showing similar evolution to the atlantic and canada?

Wasn't meaning to come across like there was any kind of problem sorry if it seemed lile that. Was only saying all models are dealing with the atlantic better which is what was destroying the output because the lows didn't seperate and it all moved north so in the medium term along with eastern canada being better orientated then we have more hieghts pushed into greenland and less likelihood of the pattern flattening than we have seen and all models seem to agree on this so while no northely we aren't going zonal and anything aimed at greenland could develop as we go along

go look at all models GFS, ECM, GEM, ICON all models seperate energy in the atlantic leaving low pressure around the azores all have better profile over canada all push hieghts into greenland on similar evolution and UKMO at 144hr looks similar to the rest so although no short term northerly really only GFS was holding onto we have cross model pattern emerging better than we had

Can't understand why there is so little enthusiasm in here after the 0z runs?

Looks like we either have end of eruption or sometimes the case the quiet before something bigger happens

GEM and ICON are having good goes with similar evolution as well

ECM 168hr and lows in the atlantic have seperated and not merged and pushed north and looking ok over eastern canada

ECM moving in right direction as well Further west over canada and lows in atalantic seperate

ICON same theme GEM similar as well

This is also a very similar pattern we saw develop on yesterdays ECM 0z And also with this mornings UKMO 0z you can see where this pattern could come from this chart

The 0z as i looked at it wasn't all that bad yeah it didn't produce the northerly that we are all expecting but that was never stuck on with realistically anything past 120hr being a shot in the dark right now but there are aspects in the 0z which stand out in the evolution that are worth noting. Lets start with our first charts at 156hr and as we can see from this chart there are a few things of note Firstly the low pressures in the atlantic which instead of merging and moving northward actually seperate and part of the energy moves north east and leaves a seperate low pressure south in the atlantic Secondly we see better development of WAA over the eastern seaboard of canada which in turn starts to produce a stronger ridge in this area Next at 180hr we see the one area of low pressure being left alot further south in the atlantic which is good and we also see the WAA really going up the western side of greenland another good thing to see The one bad point in it all is how deep the low over the UK is but it is certainly starting to displace the hieghts over europe Then as we see this develops into hieghts being pulled towards greenland with the low in the atlantic aiding the push of WAA into greenland in doing this now we could probably do with that part of the PV being a little further from greenland but with the NOAA prognosis earlier was calling for that part of PV moving northwestward away from greenland so i am sure we would gain a little westward movement Also to notice from this as well is hieghts building east of greenland which is always better for us here Now eventually the run doesnt work out and the ridge starts to fall as seen here So although not giving us our northerly it is quite a good solution up stream for us which shows better WAA into greenland than the weak shortwave filled affair we have been seeing But of course it is just another solution and is always open to change especially the way the models are acting

GEFS ens slowly going in the right direction here in the scottish central belt

The ECM 12z decided to throw us a bit of a wobbler but found this from the 0z and from a cold winter outlook it looks good to me Not all winter obv but looks to make a good start

Hard to see for the cloud but has the eruption got stronger as that plume looks to be going quite high?

GEFS 18z diagrams for here don't seem to be as good as the 12z ealrier

It's just going to be another wait and see tomorrow then but isn't it always ?

Hasn't the UKMO always used there own model output to make up there fax charts?

The GFS is the one model from them all being so aggressive with building the western russia block compared to the ECM and other semi respected models Now hopefully the GFS won't be the front runner with this cos as we see towards the end of its run theres a chance these hieghts could link up with the atlantic hieghts and would then cut us off from all the deep cold and while producing a decent easterly could well leave us a much longer route to tapping into any deep cold uppers

Everyone is moaning about how bad the UKMO is during the 12z run and while it isn't as good as the GFS or ECM i don't see it being all that bad the only place it differs is the low in the atlantic If this low pressure was modeled a bit further south and with the WAA being modeled aiming up the western side of greenland then it would be a similar evolution to the ECM and GFS and there is scope for this to change in future runs So i don't see it as being all that bad it only misses in one key area and could easily come in line with the other two in future runs