ScottishSnowStorm

Great model runs from the 12z suites apart from the GFS but that doesn't really bother me too much at present it is just good to see some consistancy between the models and the ECM 12z giving us all what we want to see tonight all the way to 240hr and even giving hints at extending beyond. If we look at 192 when the ridge has already made its push north for greenland we can see the first signs of another attempt at ridging already getting set across eastern canada as circled in this shot here Which then further develops on into the 216hr chart again circled Then as we hit the 240hr chart the low following along behind slows as it approaches the ridge and we see the contour lines on the eastern side of this start to straighten Then we see the start of another push of hieghts which look set for the eastern side of greenland and would hopefully help to keep the block in place here instead of hieghts falling more into a scandinavian block and the further push can also start to be seen from the 850 temp charts as a slight push of warmer uppers start to appear Now not that a scaninavian block wouldn't be nice but it also comes with downside like it getting sucked into an siberian high but in this situation i feel it would be our longer route to the colder uppers and some proper snow where as if the block was to stay east greenland based and would tap into the deeper cold upper air temps residing across siberia much quicker and pull them towards europe Now of course this is all depending if the overall pattern is correct which as we know it is probably likely to change but with alot of models being in some agreement then it may be right that we will have to wait and see but we all need to remember a pattern doesn't always set on the first push of ridging sometimes it can take several goes to get that block to stick and set up right. As for the GFS i am not too worried about it going zonal after all if you look back the archives it didn't really cover itself with glory in how it handled the block back in 2010 at extended range. A good days model watching and onward to the 18z and hope the other models can keep the pattern up over the coming days and we see lots of the white stuff.

Need to stop worrying about short term deep cold and snow and look toward the later end of the month and see how the pattern progresses but there has been trends in the models that should the pattern remain for greenland then things may look more positive. First model the GEM 12z and this is looking good and blocked at the end with an easterly flow Now the 850 temps are showing all cold air taken from canada over to siberia which if pattern persists would put us in a really good position Next is the extended JMA 12z which also shows us inside of an easterly flow And again as seen from the 850 temps wants to steal the cold canadian air into siberia Now extended GFS 18z shows the same with pressure charts having us under an easterly influence It wont let me upload this pic but we all know how it ended And again 850 temps taking all cold out of canada to siberia The only stick in the ointment is the ECM 12z that has went pretty messy and is at odds with the others over western canada and would be questionable how good an easterly influence we would be under And as well with 850 temps differs from others and would be questionable how much of the cold air would transfer So from what i see in the short term there will be nothing spectacular but it has never shown that we would ever see anything like that but should the patterns and trends continue in the models the end of the month is looking far more promising and if we keep hieghts around greenland and the 850 trends continue could verge on the spectacular if the siberian cold moves in our direction