Tracy Flick

Only the 1st week of February and new record temps are being set for February. #Weird

The increase in the number of pensioners with broken bones would cost the NHS more than the extra money it would get. Ice warnings etc are a big deal for the frail, even if not so much for the rest of us.

Not much light will be escaping from that giant circular monstrosity. As for blighty's backyard: A general westerly flow with an occasional northerly component will probably mean slush and early-morning ice could be a theme for many over next 2-ish weeks. Roll on spring, I've had enough.

Just 3 days to wait for the prognostications of Punxsutawney Phil...

I don't think the word 'teleconnections' does it any favours... it sounds disturbingly close to telekinesis. At the end of the day, it's either based on solid physical/mathematical foundations or it isn't. Sounds like it's fair to say that at least some of it is, even though it's initial discovery was apparently from statistical data. (Beware correlation being causation, and all that).

I wouldn't want to be a farmer on the Somerset Levels if some of these GFS FIs come to fruition. Hopefully the drainage channels are in good nick(!) Anyway, I'm sure Ian Ferguson would be expressing concern by now if the MetO were even slightly buying it.

He/she says 'meaningful' and 'spell'... his comment doesn't rule out colder snap... seems fine to me.

I wasn't aware of this either. Maybe this is a negative side-effect of tweets/MetO-updates being religiously removed from this thread... I don't really have time to check every corner of this website so perhaps if one or two posts on these topics were allowed it would be helpful. What is GLOSEA if it's not 'model output' anyway?

A "glass is half empty" take would be Glacier Point's dreaded Euro high might be starting to appear. As ever, hoping I'm rubbish at this.

If that 16-30 MetO forecast tomorrow evening still indicates snow before week 4 anywhere other than Pennines+mountains, I will eat my hat. I'm just totally mystified by the stubbornness of it. What in the holy hell are they seeing?

Well, I haven't been following much but by the sounds of it the EC model is being consistent in forecasting a flatter pattern, so if the models 'flip' (as suggested) it's a success for the GFS IMO... unfortunately if they don't the EC will be strutting like a peacock instead. (But the caveat is that much of the EC data is paywalled, so maybe the differences aren't as pronounced as they appear to be to us.) Overnight developments have pushed the swing-o-meter more towards the EC I feel. But hey what do I know.

A quick look at how GFS,EC modelled the 0-10 days approach to the Dec 10 snow. The black isobars are what actually happened i.e. 0 hour: EC240: GFS240: Both models have the right idea at 240h. The EC is already hinting at an undercut but has Scandinavia as anticyclonic whereas GFS correctly has cyclonic. Both models have a low centre too close to Iceland. EC216:GFS216: EC gets the Greenland/Iceland/Norway cyclonic pattern broadly correct, but GFS has Greenland/Iceland high pressure too far east, and GFS has North Sea low pressure not extending far enough north. I prefer EC here. EC144:GFS144: At +144h both are good. EC seems a bit slow in its evolution though, showing a still well-defined 'slider'. EC96:GFS96: At +96h the EC still has the 'slider' at a too-sharp angle, whereas GFS is picking up on the flattening as the low starts to move E rather than SE. EC72:GFS72: At +72h EC has rectified any problems and is now close to perfect. GFS has the cyclone/anticyclone centres in the right place but the isobars deviate a bit more wildly at times. EC24:GFS24: At +24h, EC is such a good match that the black isobars are often covered. This 'perfect matching' occurs less with GFS. Finally, here are the full 10 day GIFS: EC:GFS: Conclusion: EC had the clear edge at < 72h. GFS spotted the trends at longer timescales fairly well however. GFS is a bit like the American personality: It broadly answers the fundamental questions but is too brash and impatient to be bothered with the finest details.

The problem with much of the Netweather Forum is that any strong disagreement with the popular consensus is often considered trolling. People with minority opinions aren't trolling, they are often simply challenging lazy assumptions which are too readily given an uncritical pass. They are trying stop the spread of what they consider to be false information. 'Truth' should not be defined by how popular and assertive the poster is, particularly when they provide zero evidence to support their assertion.

How's the 'slider's always correct westward while the EC adjusts to the GFS' hypothesis holding up?

There are some interesting possibilities for cold and snow fans. But the southerly track of some of those vicious lows in other FI ensemble members has to be a concern for wind and rain in the south-west, even if it is just a brief transitional phase.

I think every time someone posts these day 7 charts it should be accompanied by 'hard to say with this view...' Beyond Caribbean tropical storm stuff I can't see who or what it is supposed to be produced for.

Not what people care about right now I know, but the last few FI GEFS runs have suggested some nasty vortices spewed into the mid-Atlantic. Starting to look like an irresistible force meeting an immovable object... who will win? Hopefully the lows will lose else the south-west could be in the firing-line: Or maybe the tune will completely change in due course.

The JMA is slider after slider after slider, some colder than others.

...but it would be understandable if the MetO have lost motivation to provide the BBC with anything more than the minimum required by their contract at this point. As for that forecast which I haven't seen: while northerlies can be largely underwhelming for many of us, this forecast was nonetheless probably strictly not beyond Friday. But yes, they seem wide of the mark here.

It had Thursday's low going south of the M4. Now it's going over Shetland.

I'm not sure even this captures just how epic these charts are though Knocker. They remind me more of when I was a young lad hunting mammoths in the last days of the Pleistocene era.

The output is all ridgy this, topply that. It smells of frozen slush in the morning. Nobody will be getting powder snow from these synoptics, not in December anyway.

I think apparent toppling is what is wanted, if we want the jet to be able to throw the lows from south of Greenland toward northern France.

Here's the 2010 archive to start: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=11&hour=0&year=2010&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=ncep