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Tracy Flick

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Everything posted by Tracy Flick

  1. Tracy Flick
    Probably the first time I've not wanted the jet to be cut off.
  2. Tracy Flick
    Springtime in Poland, wintertime in Germany? It's like The Producers, but in reverse.
  3. Tracy Flick
    With the ridging displaced westward it could still be wet though... just cold rain rather than warm rain.
  4. Tracy Flick
    The professionals don't base their forecasts on the GFS because they have better resources. But this forum loves the GFS because it's 4 times per day, goes out to +16 days and is free of charge. It might turn colder week after next however, so that's maybe causing some excitement. Well that's my take anyway.
  5. Tracy Flick
    The EC looks believable given what others have been saying. e.g. there's some amplification of the Atlantic ridge but not a massive amount. (Isn't that what GP was saying?)
  6. Tracy Flick
    It will be correct. And it will continue to forecast mild through the rest of the winter and will continue to be correct. And both EC and GLOSEA will forecast a mild winter next year and they will be correct. However, at some point in the next 5 years one of the models will forecast a proper cold spell and it will turn out to be incorrect.
  7. Tracy Flick
    Some members still offer a northerly or north-easterly. Some don't.
  8. Tracy Flick
    The JMA at 228 is... curious.
  9. Tracy Flick
    Last I heard ECMWF uses spectral methods whereas GFS doesn't. I don't know about UKMO but I don't think they do either. I'd imagine solving all those basis expansions is hugely computationally expensive, but at a theoretical level it is a huge difference.
  10. Tracy Flick
    The JMA and the EC are both brief northerlies in week 2 before everything washes eastwards. I fear the GFS will be very different tomorrow unfortunately.
  11. Tracy Flick
    All this makes me think of Werner "It Is Not A Significant Bullet" Herzog and the Burden of Dreams. "We have to get acquainted to this idea that there is no real harmony as we have conceived it. But when I say this, I say this all full of admiration for the [atmosphere]. It is not that I hate it, I love it. I love it very much. But I love it against my better judgement."
  12. Tracy Flick
    The JMA is also on board with this theme. It's remarkable that 6 hours ago the GEFS never really offered this.
  13. Tracy Flick
    The JMA isn't great either.
  14. Tracy Flick
    Well if this is the definition a northern block then it's a northern block. night all
  15. Tracy Flick
    I like extreme weather... but yeah the flooding and wind damage wasn't good. Also, today's GEFS output is suggesting northern blocking isn't favoured. Something is working against it, not just averaging of data. But things change quickly, so...
  16. Tracy Flick
    Good, but the ridge seems reluctant to amplify any further north: by 240h it seems to be retreating back toward its comfort zone of the Azores. It'd be nice if one of the ridges would amplify to Greenland and actually stick there.
  17. Tracy Flick
    It's been almost a full year since Britain last had a mild winter. So to be fair, a mild winter is long overdue.
  18. Tracy Flick
    The JMA is chilly from Tuesday all the way to +264h. Unfortunately it's mostly dry too. 216h and 264h:
  19. Tracy Flick
    Do experienced members consider this to show genuine northern blocking, or a strong mid-latitude Atlantic ridge?
  20. Tracy Flick
    The JMA at 192h keeps block-like: Similar idea to ECM.
  21. Tracy Flick
    GFS and UKMO aren't really that different, locally at least. The UKMO high is slightly farther south, but I doubt it's critical in the grand scheme of things going forward(?):
  22. Tracy Flick
    Both GFS and ECM are suggesting proper northern blocking now. As others have said... what could possibly go wrong?
  23. Tracy Flick
    The JMA at 192h is GFS-ish.
  24. Tracy Flick
    The farthest reaches of the GEFS 00z (like the 18z) continue to ignore low heights around Greenland. Like Sonny Landham in Predator, it senses a disturbance in the shadows but doesn't know what it is yet.
  25. Tracy Flick
    The problem with these sort of setups is they tend to degenerate to 12 hour topplers as the day nears: Hoping I'm wrong.
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