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Tracy Flick

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Everything posted by Tracy Flick

  1. Tracy Flick
    Digressing while it's dead around here: does anyone know if there's any disquiet at ECMWF caused by Brexit? They're based at Reading and I assume the UK can continue to be a funding member (Turkey is a paying member too), but it was founded by an EU-funded organisation (C.O.S.T.). I was wondering if anyone has heard of any politicians or staff suggesting that it should re-locate to an EU country on ideological grounds, even if the UK does continue with financial support.
  2. Tracy Flick
    Even at 300hour GEFS mean has an observable deviation from it's normal zonal output, this time with a distinct northerly component for the UK: Normally any deviation from typical weather is washed out at this range.
  3. Tracy Flick
    The far reaches of the JMA, while mild for the UK, gives some peace and quiet for Norway and Svalbard. As others have said, still plenty going on to keep the interest.
  4. Tracy Flick
    As Mucka states, the GEFS 12z ensembles aren't overly excited about standard westerlies in the longer term. e.g. at day 10 the 'purple' low geop. height values aren't really dominant in the cluster, numbering <5:
  5. Tracy Flick
    I think 'battleground' could become a theme over the next few weeks for the UK. Just 100-200 miles could make a big difference.
  6. Tracy Flick
    Yes, particularly away from the south coast this is a solid ensemble for proper wintry weather.
  7. Tracy Flick
    Ah! But that data is 6 hours older! Could well have thundersnow coming off a still-warm North Sea pushing well inland from these sort of synoptics.
  8. Tracy Flick
    The JMA at 156h and 192h: Ugh.
  9. Tracy Flick
    Yes, a cursory glance at the GEFS suggests excitement should be reined in, at least for a little while longer. Westerlies still seem to have the upper hand IMO.
  10. Tracy Flick
    I think Greenland's problem is it's altitude... the raw data has to be adjusted to sea level values(?)
  11. Tracy Flick
    We could be using our snow shovels to clear Saharan sand off the sidewalk before the month's out.
  12. Tracy Flick
    GFS 192h control and EC 192h are very much on the same page.
  13. Tracy Flick
    The JMA hints at an interesting north-south divide over the UK in the 240h+ range.
  14. Tracy Flick
    The JMA at 192h gives breezy, unsettled, cool, returning polar maritime. Seems to be the theme now.
  15. Tracy Flick
    I love how 20 GFS perturbations somehow contrive to produce 25 different clusters.
  16. Tracy Flick
    Not at all shabby around Baffin Bay. The high's going west-ish.
  17. Tracy Flick
    Some of the current output's starting to somewhat resemble mid-late winter 2013-2014. Hopefully the the output's wrong or the pattern won't sustain.
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