Chevron12345

-4 thismorning. Looking for something colder tomoz.

Has there been any response to the SSW anywhere? The PV just looks strong as normal with no change.

So the QTR is well gone...are we actually seeing a SSW response? Even in FI? Is the UKMET easterly actually because of the SSW? Is the PV actually splitting and being destroyed? Genuine questions.

PV looks so dominant over Canada/Greenland - where is the SSW?

Full on winter at GFS 276 then full on spring at 348!!

Indeed, but the rest of the ensemble spread is not that exciting at all. I mentioned the mean the other day, and still nothing notable has changed.

No no..not an outcome that could ever be considered!!

Comment related to 6z output. Thats what it showed. Maybe should of added: 'going by the 6z output...' Lots of panicing and jumping on posts again it seems.

Indeed. Put perfectly. Seems that will be how February pans out unless something significant suddenly changes.

Thanks, but is there a link. Thanks kindly.

Where can I get a closer look at the uppers on such a chart. Thanks.

Last pic shows the atlantic bashing through!!

Can we have a greenland high please? Anything from the east is always on dodgy ground. Such a strong PV continually modelled over canada/greenland. Will the SSW nuke it...a split will just strengthen the lobe over that area...maybe (?). Atlantic looks strong, even the above chart has a LP system heading to the UK. Edit...just seen a fat sausage entering greenland.

There maybe northern blocking, but to my very untrained eye all I see is a big strong chunk of PV sat over Canada/Greenland sending weather systems off the Atlantic to the UK. Until that big chunk of PV does something else or disappears it just looks windy, wet with snow over high ground. Of course its not as simple as that due to the SSW, which I'm sure someone will point out. But if the SSW was not happening it just looks like good old english wintry weather, cold and damp down south and wintry in the the north.

GFS 6z, looks Atlantic dominated right through out. Lots of cold zonal air, usual places seeing wintry stuff. In the main pretty wet and windy.

Thats great...for snow falling. But 2m temps at around -5 wont mean freezing so any snow falling will just melt. Anyway not the place for that discussion.

Only 2 just reach -10 for a very short time. Surely there should be some better (colder) upper air showing on those. -5 upper just won't cut the mustard with regard to 2m temperatures. You can see everyone complaining about the meto showing 5-6 for towns and cities come the last week of Feb!

Why would it revert to zonal when, even with a SSW? Could you just explain the bit in bold..doesn't make sense? Thanks.

Cold zonal indeed. But horrid wet, windy weather. This is certainly the theme for the foreseable...according to the current charts.

Over night min of -1 and -1.1 (two sensors). Current temp 0.0 and 0.1

Hasn't a artic high already been modelled in the later stages of output quite a few times already this winter? Why is that one different in relation to a SSW? Edit - is it because of split pv?

Guess we will need to until they show something different.

Looking cold zonal Atlantic sourced wearther for a period. GFS also looked Atlantic influenced right into FI. Good for norhern areas and scotland.

I have read all there posts, ok I will go with it...the SSW is nailed. But as you agree with me, the chances of a special event like 91 or other famous events over the years (Catcol named a few years) is beyond FI. Indeed will be interesting to see what happens in the models but many are counting on this producing the goods.

North Easterlies aren't that 'rare' -