Chevron12345
-
Posts
104 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Chevron12345
-
-
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Just another point about the Gfs 00z, it really fits with the MO updates for atlantic fronts to push up against the cold block and stall across the uk with potentially significant / substantial snowfall amounts as cold air remains in situ.
Well at 96hrs GFS the SE is barely holding on to any -5 air. What 2m temperatures will be or what -5 air equates too, I presume is certainly no where near freezing during the day, maybe 4-7?
At 108 only a small finger of the UK under -5's but the majority under 'milder' upper air. Then Atlantic Air at -5 uppers looks like bringing a wash out/slush fest with more snowy conditions up over much higher ground.
and at 144 a mess of uppers barely at -5 except for Scotland.
Then the Atlantic again through the later stages as per today's model at 108.
I'm not seeing any surface cold with temperatures near freezing or ice days. I'm not seeing any good snowfall days between now and end of week, unless at elevation. I'm seeing a very watered down version of the charts shown last Wednesday.
Lot's of talk about the SSW must be now influencing our tiny tiny island and therefore pushing back the Atlantic - Really?
All talk is now about Thursday onward. Just normal winter fare this week.
-
4
-
-
BBC weather - 7 degrees London Monday. Lol
-
Just post your model thoughts in here and be area biased. Forget the MOD thread.
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
We've been waiting few years now, surely another week won't hurt LOL
The difference for me this time, is we are not looking at an undercut or channel low, or northerly that could be scuppered at any point by a pesky shortwave. Deep cold arrives from the east on Sunday, that's as good as nailed now. So maybe the Tuesday front won't make it, but right now it looks like it will. If not then the chances next week are rife. I understand the caution by some, but our chances are very good, no question about it. It's not inconceivable that we get 3 snow events next week. Decent ones!!
Lets hope. I must admit, I have never seen it snow and settle, then a couple of days later snow again on top......and again....well that would be incredible.
-
2
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Because they are still unsure about the eastern extent of the front on Tuesday, still a lot of uncertainty regarding it.
Yeah...think that's pretty obvious.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
Remember the temps shown on those apps will be maximums! it will not be 4C when/if any precipitation arrives, not a chance!!!
If that front does hit our region, it's a snow event on Tuesday!
Dp's - Check
Precip - Check
Iso - check (conducive for snow)
MAX!!! Temps - check
It better push in on Tuesday, don't want to keep waiting and waiting. Otherwise it will just been cold for a period then back to mild.
BBC (for what its worth) said snow events later in week, nothing about Tuesday..
-
1 minute ago, jessandjon said:
my Snowflake is back :-)
Good luck mate. 2m temperatures not conductive to lying snow, but hope you see it falling.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I think that's irrelevant as there will be very little snow this weekend anyway.
As in what the weekends upper air models will show with respect to snow next week. We all know ppn this weekend is minimal.
-
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:
This run is not really that different from the 12z out to 150hrs. Uppers slightly higher but just variations on a theme really. This is a complex set up and details of any snowfall will probably not be nailed until T24 or less
Uppers will gradually get watered down as the weekend gets closer. This will effect 2m temps and lowland snow cover.
-
1
-
-
Amazing that everyone is talking about snow at day 5? Like its nailed? A lot can change in that time period.
-
2
-
-
Not going by any model output until Sunday. Especially regards to Tuesday snow. It will either not reach us and come to nothing due to increased strength of the easterly component or deliver wet horrid frontal snow with drizzle mixed in. Anything from the Atlantic carries the risk of slush in my book. Still time for this to go wettish/slushy for us in North Somerset anyway.
-
1
-
-
GFS cold uppers not as deep as the 18z. A lot more 'milder' air around with mild sections.
2m temperatures in most places (except high ground) not that cold, definately not at freezing or below during the day.
-
1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:
I dont agree. After wednesday it may not continue but sunday to wednesday has trended colder. We will just have to see however upgrades *appear* to be the trend.
Fair enough, and yes the charts have upgraded for the period you suggest. Good luck to you, don't be too disappointed when this easterly fails again.
-
Just now, Paceyboy said:
The trend is towards colder though Chevron. We have gone from seemingly nothing to at least a 4 day cold spell over 36 hours of modelling.
Never mind the trends...experience tells charts we are now seeing will not verify, with a much watered down version actually happening.
-
4
-
-
8 minutes ago, joggs said:
Cautious optimism as we sail the rocky model boat forward.
Let's get the easterly with t48 lol.
Indeed, with great charts like this at 144 the only way now is to watch as everything back tracks. Just a tease again guys.....
-
2
-
-
Overnight low of 2.2.
4.2 at 6.15 am.
Not even cold enough to describe the last few days as 'cold spell'.
Just a cooler spell, with hail and rain.
-
1
-
-
Just aint cold enough..simples
-
4 minutes ago, MP-R said:
The snow bit was around Flax Bourton and the LA bypass nearest Dundry. The windscreen test tested positive to hail and sleet everywhere else.
No snow in Yatton...i meant...and rain now.
-
1 hour ago, MP-R said:
Just driven into Bristol along the A370 through a mother of all hail/sleet/slush/wet snow storms. Really heavy at times and was beginning to leave a covering in places.
My car's ice earning even felt the need to contribute haha.
Temp dropped to 2.6 in yatton around 3.30pm during hail shower. 100% no snow.
-
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
But for those that do live in Poole
The Ap for Poole may show snow. But Metoffice website shows different.
-
Just now, karlos1983 said:
I Don't live in Poole.... NEXT
ha. whats your location?
-
1 minute ago, festivalking said:
It' the hope that kills you.....
For Poole? Think he may need to check again.
-
Hail/Sleet, Temp from 7.1 to 3.2 Yatton
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, Ashme said:
Too soon to have knocked this up today then!! ??
Told my 9yr old we could have snow next wknd ?
Brilliant. But will just gather dust..ha
-
1
-
Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Indeed I am, in reply to Frosty about the GFS 00z today...Your correct.