Chevron12345
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Posts posted by Chevron12345
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4 hours ago, Banbury said:
Looking at the variation in the models what’s reliable ?
Well its still there on the 06..
The sytem is arriving/happening so thats reliable. Definately a wet and windy week for most, after the storm is another matter.
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9 minutes ago, Surrey said:
History tells us though that the GFS loves to blow low pressure systems out of proportion to back track closer to the event.
The fact the ECM also shows it is odd usually you would have some kind of discrepancy between the 2 on its depth and track.
At so far out though it could vanish altogether
Not really, its pretty much in the reliable at 96hrs.
Pretty much a wash out Wednesday and Thurs exceptions of Scotland.
Temperatures around 5 degrees in the south, 7 in far south west, not that cold really.
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Wednesday and Thursday look like a wash out for the majority. Scotland may be ok.
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
pretty Decent 12Z our to about day 10-
If I lived in any of these locations I would be salivating at the models ( +150 M )
-Lake District
-Yorkshire dales
- western Pennines
- peak district
- Shropshire hills
- Exmoor
- Beacons & Snowdonia
- Sperrin in Ireland-
possibly even the Cotswolds -
we could see DEEP snow accumulating from when the cold spell starts lasting 7-10 days...
somewhere is going to get North of 30cm of snow from convective showers followed by frontal Atlantic sliders -
The most snowiest spell for the UK since 2010 ... let’s hope it’s backed up by the North Easterly Post 192....
S
Indeed - but the most uninhabited places in the UK. It always snows over the hills and mountains in winter!
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1 minute ago, andymusic said:
and more snow
Shows a lot of rain too. Especially in wales and south & west.
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16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Precip-type charts are a waste of time at this time frame.
The NetWx-MR higher resolution charts show pretty much the same from the first image to the last image I have posted.
That's just an illustration to show that the GFS precip charts are a waste of bandwidth at this stage. Not only that, it get's members hopes up because they just show wide areas with snowfall, and that just won't happen.
Exactly.....and anyway these (though maybe useless) clearly show rain for South Wales and the West Country.
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4 hours ago, andymusic said:
Wednesday
Second chart shows a lot of rain for the south and south wales. As bluearmy said there isn't much to be excited about unless you live at elevation.
3 hours ago, andymusic said:let it snow let it snow let it snow
? Not sure why you keep posting these charts. Yesterday a chart you posted showed more snow in Portugal and Spain than anywhere in the UK.
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If you follow the GFS precipitation maps throughout the run, the SW and South Wales has quite a bit of rain. Not sure why anyone is expecting snow unless you are on the Mendips or the Moors in Devon.
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33 minutes ago, jethro said:
And the fog has gone again as quickly as it came. Most odd. Guessing it was a particularly large and low cloud passing the hill tops.
Think your in for another wet depressing coldish week next week, this time from west not east!
Mind you temperatures will be probably warmer than last weekends slack easterly.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
Think you will find most of my posts over the recent past refer to NW Britain...never mind..carry on.
NW Britain - Northern Ireland and NW Scotland then. Or are you confusing yourself with NW England..
Anyway the models are showing an impressive incursion of PM from the Atlantic. Looks like normal winter weather where Scotland and High Ground in the north might see some good snowfall.
Apart from the pretty wet and miserable. What comes after this spell of rain/sleet/snow for the UK is what is interesting, but again that's ten days away.
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The Scandi High ever present still in the models. Thought the High was supposed to pushed away but later this week? It still has influence on the weekend. The UKMET model has been consistent throughout with keeping it in situation fighting any Atlantic attack. Will this PM air actually arrive as currently shown in FI on the GFS?
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Chasing Artic Highs/Ridging in FI is the new theme. The Scandi High was the big theme in December then was witten off late December but actually did appear this week...confusing. Give me a Greenie High modelled at 72 by UKMET please.
The current output on the UKMET is not shifting the Scandi high as fast as people are predicting. The ECM has some agreement too.
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No need of really cold uppers to have cold conditions at ground level in this kind of setup.
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2.8 max today. Pretty cold for this warm area of N.Somerset.
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Max 4.9 today, Yatton N.Somerset.
Cold spell here for sure, light snow shower/s this morning giving a very very light dusting on roofs. Ground temps certainly dropping away.
Cold wind.
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0.6 LIGHT SNOW Yatton N.Somerset
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NH looks interesting though in later stages
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Didn't get higher than 4.1 today. Will be interesting to see how temperatures pan out this week.
Model output discussion - mid-winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Models show wet and windy..for most.