E17boy

This doesn’t get easier. On the Met office latest update they have now moved the colder weather to later on in February. Mid Feb looks wet and mild later on in the month winds from the N or E and snow possible.

Morning peeps Well here we are back to the drawing board and yet another storm to hit us today but this one does not look as fierce as storm Isha. I am trying to look at any change in the horizon in desperation now as most of us now are. The 2 major n problems are the PV and the Iberian heights yes once again this slug has changed our pattern and past history tells us these setups can last for weeks and as some have mentioned it’s the worst situation we can be in especially this far in winter. Until we don’t see some shifts in the PV and these heights down south we are stuck in a rut. The extended output is not showing any hope yet but we live it day by day that maybe tomorrow will bring a turnaround. I know the biggest concern is the time it’s ticking we need something to give in the next week or so to give us any hope as we enter February. Here in London we have at least seen some flakes of snow this season so far but that is it, however I despair those who are yet to see their first flakes. There is me fingers crossed and living in the hope that the weather gods will take some pity and we will see some change soon. As it goes winter it’s just another day without you. regards

Hi all, Just saw this thought I share it don’t know how true this maybe but was interesting

It really does surprise my imagination sometimes that why is it that FI attracts so much attention and excitement. We have had it all this season and we could probably fill pages and pages of FI charts. Alas the reality is straw clutching in us coldies is just a way to temper our nerves even when deep down we know it’s a loosing battle there is always a Maybe when we see something positive in FI. I know the mood is downbeat at the moment due to what is showing but hey it’s the weather and it will never change for our desires. In the meantime hatches down for something completely opposite and dramatic storm Isha is blowing in. Here in NE London the wind is already picking up. Let’s hope this storm passes with least impact to human life and infrastructure. I am going to give it another 2 weeks to see if there is any shift from this pattern then maybe reality will really start to kick in that time is on the way out and even FI will not come to the rescue. stay safe all regards

I agree with everything you are saying and I am on the cusp of hanging my hat up. I know posters are saying things can change but it’s always been F1 and to be honest I know it’s hard to suck in I think we are going to be stuck in this pattern unless there is a dramatic turnaround. What makes it even worse is that the mild will extend into Europe and if we are waiting for cold on our shores to come from there then that’s not a good sign. The Iberian heights I am afraid are yet again as it stands to prove history for the reason of many of our winters past failures. Things may change but we need something dramatic now to kick this pattern .

That is really positive news. They are definitely seeing something that’s going to brew up come February after the output of the last few days I really was thinking that Exeter will downgrade their Feb outlook but we are still firmly holding on. We just need the output to come on board now. Fingers crossed .

I can feel a little uneasiness with us coldies this evening and it’s not a surprise. We all knew our cold was going and milder weather was on the cards next week. Despite this me myself still had that hope that yes this mild blip will come and be here for 2 weeks or more and then eventually we will get to see cold weather return and I am not saying I have lost that hope. Deep inside I am still crying and hoping that in the next 2 weeks we might see something pop up of more i interest for us coldies. However there are 2 main things that are making this Hope even harder. 1 - if it was still the beginning of January then maybe it would not hit so hard as in our minds we would know there is still a lot of winter left. However today is the 19th iof Jan and February is round the corner time will be a concern. Taking into account we don’t see any positive shifts then it will be the weeks in February we will be praying in desperation for one last chance 2- from what the more knowledgeable are saying there is still no signal yet if very little if any of any pattern change to cold in the next 2 weeks, and outside factors are not being favourable at the moment. This is not a post saying winter is over or anything but it’s just an insight as to what we are facing in the coming weeks. As with all of you me is hoping that come this time next week there will be some more positivity on the horizon . We have seen that patterns can change suddenly but many times we are the unlucky ones where we have a sudden change from cold to mild but we don’t often see that change the opposite way round. In the meantime no doubt the wind and rain will be making some headlines. take care all

Sorry to post this here but as the mood is a bit somber for the coming pattern the MO extended outlook still remains the same still the Easterly is in the forcast. So that is a small bit of comfort while we wait to see what happens after the wind and rain and see how the pattern evolves.

This scares me and kind of rings alarm bells. Time will tick along.. Something has to change in the coming few weeks on the output otherwise I won’t say no more.

I agree that a lack of low pressure over Iberia is not ideal for high pressure to hold and bring us sustained cold. As I mentioned in my previous post earlier it’s not just about having heights over Scandinavia all the jigsaw pieces have to fall in place. My main concern is that February may well end up with a lot of high pressure but all in the wrong place for us to benefit. But too early to make judgements yet and as we know in a weeks time the setup may well look so different whether for the better or worse who knows. regards

Morning peeps hope you are all well. A lot of comments on possible heights building over Scandinavia as we get into the ending of January. However I would say a lot has to fall in place for us to get the perfect setup for cold from the east. It depends on the orientation of the high and its positioning., also how strong the high can hold for. Many of times we have seen a Scandinavian high set up but we have ended up with a 1 day easterly wind and a few snow grains in the east and then itss gone. We don’t want the high to set up too far east as this will do us no good. So great caution is still needed with this type of setup. The jigsaw has to all fall in place, tentative signs that this may bring a pattern change to cold but too far out to make any judgments yet. The main focus for the next week will be the wind and rain and after that it’s all about how the trends play out. have a great Friday all regards

Morning peeps Well the long anticipated change to mild wet and windy weather is still on the output this morning. So it’s going to be goodbyes to the cold as the Atlantic train takes over. Unfortunately we have not ended in a position to even see a transient breakdown from snow to rain which is a shame. I think the theme for the next 2 weeks will be Atlantic driven albeit there will be high pressure in the forecast as well giving some dry weather. We have still got February to go there is me hoping outside drivers will eventually rescue this winter not forgetting the growing concerns as we go through these next few weeks that time will slowly start to tick down.

I agree with the Iberian heights thinking and they have been the spoiler of many of our winters and yes whilst these heights are present down south it is almost impossible to get a deep freeze. However we got to see where these heights go I think some posters are thinking on the lines that if these heights can drift NE into Scandinavia then we can get a cut from an easterly. However for all this to happen all the jigsaw has to fall in place and at the moment no conclusion can be made. I think we got to grit our teeth and see how the pattern develops over the next 2 weeks. regards

Yes totally agree alas seen it here too many times sometimes I call this place the Bermuda Triangle cherry charts 10 days away seem to mysteriously disappear it is almost likely now that we are staring down the barrel of the Atlantic to make inroads after this week. The models have quite clearly backed away from any decent wonderland pictures us coldies are waiting for. Sometimes I get the feeling that the writing for the rest of this winter is being written on the walls but dare I say. How long this mild train will carry on for is anyone’s guess. Perhaps February May deliver according to what some of the knowledgeable posters have said, however again it’s worth bearing in mind that factors for 15th Jan were favourable yes granted we are going to get a weeks of cold weather but not the date us coldies thought would finally bring the white stuff. No matter how favourable outside factors will look I still believe we will never fill the gab between what’s being shown as favourable and what actually happens. The weather will do what it wants. regards

Hi peeps Bit of heartache at the moment. Seems like this chase has gone in for ever but I guess now it’s time for me to hang my hat on this one. Next week may be cold but dry not exactly what us coldies have been chasing for. I am sorry for sounding downbeat but I am glad I did not have my expectations that high. Still plenty of winter left but what is beginning to ring in my mind now is that February will come and go then we will be looking down the barrrell of spring on the horizon. I know many will say things can change and it’s only the weather yes I agree with that and maybe down the line we may well get out winter still. However the most annoying thing is we put our heart so much into chasing cold for snow on our island but many of times we are left disappointed. The waiting will still go on such are us coldies. take care all regards

Morning peeps What the hell is going on this morning in the models. I have never seen so much uncertainty. We have not got a clue as to how next week is going to pan out I am loving all the comments though I must say next few days are going to be interesting model watching. uncertainties for next week how cold is it going to be? who will get snow? will it continue this cold? will it go mild later? or will the cold be extended? is there signs of at last Scandi heights??? We are in the unknown at the moment. A lot to be resolved a lot of ifs and buts to get through. Out of all this us coldies live in that hope that maybe maybe something is afoot. THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES Have a nice Friday all

Hi peeps I can see why current model runs look more favourable for the north Unfortunately for us here in the South as is the case a lot of time when we have a low come in from the southwest even if we do get some snow it’s a transient event where it quickly turns back to rain as the milder boundary comes in. I know next week is still up for grabs but here in the south we really need the pattern to establish a Scandinavian high and winds from the NE or E . This is the exact setup I I am waiting for and I really hope this does happen in the coming weeks. Yes a N or a NW airstream can deliver as well with features but a lot of times us in the South miss out on the snow from these air masses. Still a lot of modelling to go through in the next few days and a lot of ups and downs still to come. Who will get lucky no one knows yet. THE SEARCH FOR MY WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES regards

Hi peeps hope you are all well. Been dry day here in Walthamstow today but did feel cold in that wind. I am bit disappointed regarding tomorrow firstly the planned underground strikes have been suspended that means I will have to commute to my office in Milton Keynes, so I will miss any falling snow that that does occur in London as in MK I don’t think any is expected. Also I always believed this cold spell would not be the one we are all waiting for, ie east or northeast winds and plenty of heavy snow showers moving in. Yes the week does look cold but there is no sign at the moment of any significant snow event for our part here. Winds may turn northerly next weekend but as some have mentioned already that rarely does us any good in the Southeast. On the brighter side we have still got a fair bit of winter to go and I am sure if we can all get to see a December 11th 2022 again we would be happy. take care all and good luck everyone for tomorrow. regards

Morning all Very good point from catacol . I think what it is that because we have experienced the severe cold of 2010 and 2018 that has been laid as a reaching point in order to match these years. However like we saw last December it does not have to go to that extreme for us here to get a good snow cover. Here in NE London where I am last year the evening of December 11th brought a fair amount of snow to the SE from a feature that came from the channel. That snow then laid for the next 5 days and the cold at that time was not as cold as 2010 or 2018. So with the models showing a cold or at times very cold theme in the days to come is a good start. Anyway having said the above I know a lot of people are concerned about the amount of snow in the setup. Yes a lot of dry weather is on the cards but as many have said features will appear and there will be surprises. I myself am now looking and very much hoping that we get this high to move to Scandinavia that will help open doors to tap in to some cold from the east or north east hence allowing a better chance of snow. I have got my fingers crossed for this so let’s see how the next days pan out. Taking all the above still early days so as always caution is not not forgotten. ARE WE GETTING CLOSER IN FINDING OUR WINTER WONDERLAND have a nice Sunday all regards.

I don’t care if you have been fed from a silver spoon this is not a game this is model watching from hell. In the coming week ECM ICON, GFS, UKMO, GEM and PUBRUN will be completing the task of bringing cold and satisfying the coldie market. And at the end of all this whoever does not complete this one or all of you will be getting fired . Is that clear, now go away and I will see you all back here on the 15th

Hi peeps hey I hope everyone is well. I have not posted for a few days been under the weather but slowly recovering from a cold. Here in NE London we had some sunny spells today but as the day went on the shower activity has increased and it’s been on and off this evening but dryer for now albeit temperatures have dropped and it feels like what falls now will be wintry in nature. So where are we on the models and this cold spell. The way I am seeing things Monday and Tuesday look to be the coldest days of the coming week at least here in the south when there is a chance of a few white surprises from showers. Then the rest of the weeks looks like slightly below average temperatures with frost and fog but nothing severe in terms of cold. The fun and games start probably from later next week but at the moment I would say nothing is clear. We need a few more days yet to see what the models churn out and what happens to this high pressure that has been the top story and attention for the past week. Till then I don’t want to jump on anything but we are on middle ground at the moment. The much awaited mid Jan timeline is coming on the horizon. Before then some interesting stuff in the form of showers on Monday and Tuesday . THE TIME IS GETTING CLOSER WILL WE FINALLY SEE OUR WINTER WONDERLAND regards

Hi Peeps I know there is more hope of colder weather which is excellent compared to what we have had in December. However my only concern is the dry and frosty weather that keeps popping up. Yes it will be nice to have the cold but it will be such a big shame not to get any snow. I know it’s early days and a lot of you will say let the cold come and the snow will follow. However if we are to get any convection or features then the high has to be further north for us at least to tap into some continental flow. I really hope all the jigsaw pieces come together and that this spell of cold weather is not just going to be cold with harsh frost and we all have some snow chances. regards

Looks like things are improving today after GFS getting fired yesterday. What I will be looking for in the coming days ….TO SEE IF THE COLD POOL TO OUR EAST CONTINUES GROWING …. WILL BE SEEING IF THE HIGH IS UNDERCUT. THE MORE UNDERCUT WE GET THE MORE CHANCE THER IS OF THE HIGH NOT SINKING. …..WATCHING HOW MUCH ENERGY THERE IS TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS THIS WILL IMPACT WHETHER THR HIGH CAN PUSH FURTHER NORTH There is still a lot to get through in order for us to reach our final destination. Just maybe today we are finally beginning to move in the right direction. Although still far to early to throw caution out of the window. Fingers crossed regards

If GFS is correct in the new pattern then expect the Met outlook to change in the next couple of days. I really hope not. We just need to stay on our seats I am sure there are still many twists and turns to come. The nerves hold on. Will WE FIND OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IN 2024????? Happy new year all regards