CameronWS

Really? I thought the runs coming out right now looked better for frontal snowfall?

West of Scotland and Central belt areas near Glasgow are drier than the majority of the UK in most northerly’s. More often than not battleground events occur further south. Just hope someone somewhere in the UK ends up with a big fall.

What’s wrong with that?

My location in Scotland is harder to get snow than 90% of England. Northerly = dry, North westerly has to be especially potent or it just falls as sleet near the coast, Easterly depends on perfect alignment of winds to funnel a streamer in the SE-NW direction. Battle ground events also seem to be more common in England than Scotland - so while it’s extremely unlikely to actually happen, the GFS run look pretty exciting for me. IMO I wouldn’t be surprised to see the cold blast for the 24-26th upgrade and end up a battleground for England as the low weakens slightly.

Actually the most snowy GFS run of the winter for some. Really frustrating when people only comment based on what it shows where they are.

Some very strong gusts here at the moment. Feels like the Met Office are underestimating things.

I mean…it is a snow storm

Based on this one run alone (just for fun), what level do you think it would snow to?

How does next Monday look on ECM?

Based on the people shouting massive downgrade or upgrade you would think there’s been a complete pattern change… in reality the models are just either shunting the cold northerly East or West a few hundred miles. If it goes Far East we miss out, in the middle we get a partial northerly (better for the east) and if it goes far west we get a belter. Also worth considering it was just last winter at this range Northerly’s where being modelled to directly hit us - they all ended up going west. What to say the models won’t shift the core cold west again this year which would actually be favourable?

How’s the chances of snow looking for this Thursday into Friday?

Obviously just for fun but that bottom chart is probably the most insane I’ve seen on here ever! There has been hints in recent runs of a stalling front around the 31st - tbh if that’s showing at this range you’d probably expect it not to get anywhere near reaching us by the time but we can hope GFS model looks closest to the MO’s long range forcast as a wedge (?? Correct me if I’m wrong) forms in the Atlantic allowing the cold air to build and eventually attempt to become a south easterly. I noticed the wedge initially first showed up right over us a couple of days ago but has been gradually moving further west. Could this be where MO think the extended cold is going to come from into January? If I remember correctly wedges are also pretty prone to toppling in the modern climate particularly?

Thought you were away to bed because you’d written it off as a bad run??

Think the route forward looks more simple now. I expect ECM to be further south either tonight or in the morning and from then on the models will very marginally shift south up to the day. South west probably ending up with the best chance of any frontal snowfall if it makes it. Said by me - an absolute novice btw

Do you think snowfall would likely be to sea level, say based upon the latest ECM?

Aren’t southward correction normally in the short-term where we see a slight shunt from run-to-run? Is it possible the timeframe we are most interested in is still out-with the timeframe of southward corrections starting?

I’m completely clueless here but if the band is too south, wouldn’t there be a strong probability of showers off the east coast… and that they could potentially be fairly intense due to warm sea temps? I know not ideal for those in the west but there could still be streamers (in certain areas) and disturbances, plus with the cold air locked in for some time at worst a snow-rain breakdown event could be possible. Thoughts?

Wow, how typical that I would actually end up too far EAST for today’s snow! I’ve mainly missed out this far due to being too far West for the heavy precip to make it I basically live on the west coast.

Finally got a dusting here! Nice to see as it will probably remain here for a couple of days. A couple of showers going through Stirling finally decided to reach here. Any idea why now? More of a flat easterly flow?

Nothing here at all. Angle of the streamer all wrong, pretty gutted but looks like we won’t get anything lying. hope everyone is enjoying it though! Some of the totals sound very impressive!

Anyone know if the flow could become just north of west? Right now everything is falling just south by about 5 miles

Nothing here and not confident - all the warning are just east of here. A shame because I was just hoping for 1 small covering all winter

Encouraging signs here on west coast. Not expecting anything til tomorrow but we’ve had very light flurries all day and a proper shower has now made it through here! Nothing to show for it on the ground but good to see.

950? I’m so confused now I know about 850s, 500s, 2m’s, wet bulb and dew points but now I’m lost

What would be the difference? Looks less disruptive to me - but I’m pretty clueless so just wondering