James Maidstone
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
James Maidstone replied to Eagle Eye's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Supacell go to Dungeness area -
Two things which strike me about Isha are: 1.) Just how much of the country will be affected by these winds, it seems quite rare for the whole country more or less to be under a wind warning 2.) The duration, whilst the wind speeds aren't going to be the highest ever, places will be seeing warning-worthy wind gusts for12-15 hours, often storms pass through within a few hours, but many places will have winds of 50-60mph+ for a long time
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In terms of the track of a low 96+ hours out 50 miles is nothing. I agree with this, although I think we need to be realistic now that it is an outside chance and the bulk of the model runs have in increasingly tracking South, well South in some cases, but there are some that don't and recent model runs to my untrained eye show the depth/strength of the Northerly as not quite as strong which potentially could help to buck the trend. Personally I would wait until Monday for calling the Atlantic low a bust for frontal snow, however I would expect reasonable odds if I were to back it affecting mainland UK at this stage.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
James Maidstone replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
..He was previously chief forecaster -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
James Maidstone replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The OP is not "wrong" it is a model based on data inputs , therefore it isn't wrong, it just shows a different outcome to what you are hoping for expecting and also differs from other model runs -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
James Maidstone replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Be interested to see where the GFS 18Z sits in the pack, miles ahead or above hopefully! It is just one GFS run, no need to over react to it. Let's see where we sit within 24 hours. The Met Office deep dive and week ahead video's should make interesting watching this week. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
James Maidstone replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tides in the 5-7 day range aren't spring but neither are they neap either -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
James Maidstone replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Arome had everything modelled way further South than this morning too. Rain/Snow/Sleet went possibly 100 miles further North than Arome was showing. This was Arome's 00Z for 11am this morning: -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
James Maidstone replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In 6 weeks time the sun will be at the same angle and the nights will be the same as today -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
James Maidstone replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM doesn't go that far out does it? -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
James Maidstone replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
In parts of Kent we got 5 inches of snow in a couple of hours one Sunday night from a channel low which moved North. Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. Then it stuck around for a week. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks, - I get that, but at range the models indicate that frontal snow would sweep it aside and milder air follows quickly, but if I remember correctly in 2010-2011 the block kept pushing back, but the block was colder and stronger then? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In terms of extending the cold snap, there seems general consensus of the models for letting the Atlantic in 7/8th December, although a minority of cross model ensemble members support retaining the cold. Historically, how often does the block delay the warm up or more than hold its ground and extend the cold? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last year a cold week was enough to bring the SST near enough back to average, so a lot less time than you may think for the North Sea -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, but you need the temperature cold enough for it to influence whether it falls as rain or snow, finely balanced. Remember 3 years ago in early Jan we had about 30mm of rain here from NE winds, air temps around 2-3 degrees, dew points just the wrong side of marginal. Had we had a colder North Sea we would have had close to a foot of snow (although had it been colder then there would have been less precipitation in the first place). It's a fine balance! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only thing I would say to this was I was surprised how quickly the North Sea cooled down last year with only a week or so of cold temps -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
James Maidstone replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hardly getting buried "The Scottish Highland receive a few cm of snow in December" about as normal as you can get -
Just by understanding about Earthschool, it is still only being updated with information from models, not verified data?
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To my eye that is definitely a fair bit further North than for 21:00 on the 12z ECM (Pictured) and in also the 12z GFS for that matter
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It's toeing the line with UKV and keeping a Southerly track moving through London. Really Arome out on a bit of a limb now with GFS/Arpege/Icon in the middle ground
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