James Maidstone

One thing which doesn't correlate are certain news channels and warnings saying we are looking at widely 5-10cm of snow over areas such as Kent. The forecast is for nigh on 36 hours of continuous snowfall for many parts of Kent, I appreciate that will break into streamers/bands later on into Sunday/Monday, but if there as going to be a system bring rainfall which forecasts were describing as heavy and persistent in that time-frame I would be expecting well over an inch. This would equate to 25-30cm of snow quite widely and probably in the downs 40cm plus. There seems to be a gap in forecast versus modelled lying snow?

Something would have had to have gone seriously wrong! Especially as Larkfield on the correct wind isn't blocked by any high ground. The actual transition time will be interesting, looking like 2am currently, I imagine it will be quite abrupt when it happens, especially if heavy!

The Met Office has been the steady ship over the last 10 days or so, I would be very disappointed should it let us down at the final hurdle. It is only really Icon/Aperage pushing the low further East

I assumed that was from the perspective of the precipitation amounts rather than the temperatures enabling snow? the greater the sinking SE then the less the risk, but also less of a reward

Harmonie ties in very well to the Met Office Amber Warning

So in election night style are we able to call it for the Beast yet? The models look well aligned enough in my limited knowledge of models to call it. Or do we still need to wait for some seats to be counted? How is the swingometer looking?

I may be a novice amateur when it comes to meteorology, but from what I can see there are two salient points As they say "Get the cold in first and then worry about everything else -that now seems fairly likely for the vast majority of the country? Worry about the exact position of the low at 96/120/144 and how it affects precipitation streams is unnecessary detail at this stage, since the position of the low which is currently being modeled for Sunday/Monday is not where it will actually be and thus the precipitation charts are not worth worrying about at this stage? You have got to be in it to win it and we are getting closer to being in it? I hope I am not barking up the wrong tree with the above points?

That is a big change, must be 300 miles SSE

Avalanches are pretty common in the Highlands, as are huge volumes of snow, however wind re deposition of snow is far more responsible for vast build ups of snow in certain areas which are more likely to cause avalanches than just a uniform snow fall

Where?

If you look closer though you have to be North of the Midlands to get below minus4 uppers. Not a done deal for the whole country..

if the BFTE comes in and it is the right side of marginal then couldn't this aid the snow creation and subsequent precip rates?

Maidstone. V brief sleet/snow shower as part of the line travelling SW from the Downs. ASL 230ft, DP 0.5, temp 1.4

Sleet here in Maidstone 230ft asl

Light to moderate snow in maidstone for last 45 mins. Covering on grass, cars and some of the pavement. Heavy stuff yet to hit. 230ft asl

it is relative. Originally I was from the Midlands and the place I lived for that area was very low lying at around 100ft, there would quite often be nothing there but as soon as you drove away and got to 200ft you would start seeing bits on the verges, go 4 or 5 miles away to Redditch at 300-400ft and it was often a winter wonderland. The same in Maidstone, I live at about 250ft and in marginal events have driven down to the train station where there has been nothing on pavements etc when the road outside my house is covered. Even this year there has been nothing but I look across to the Downs and I see snow from 400ft upwards... In summary I think living at 250ft I have a better chance than sea level, but I would hardly call where I live "Higher Ground"..

The Met Office seem to be a little out on a limb for this one, the other models aren't really giving signals of settling snow for Kent, either not cold enough or the precipitation intensity is only sufficient over East Anglia.. Interesting one to follow. GFS has uppers way to high for one..

Currently in Maidstone 230ft ASL: 5.0 °C, DP 4.9 °C 19mm of rain since midnight. Surprised no yellow rain warning out for today tbh. Still think the Downs will get a covering late doors which will then freeze over.

Big contrast in current temps across the South East currently. Dew points corresponding too

Phenomenal amount of rainfall in Snowdonia and still continuing, especially in the Northern part of the area.. Likely to cause problems

Also an outside chance of the UK Temp record being broken

There was talk of 38 degrees to break the cap, the way things are going it isn't going to be far off. 34.6 at Heathrow and zero cloud...

The Metoffice have actually removed the warning. This is outrageous, in this part of Kent this is the worst rainful since 2013

Hirlam was the only model to pick up on this yesterday. BBC did mention the pivot but the Met Office have been caught with their trousers down on this. Warning very late on. Trains already I'm a right mess. Just been through Tonbridge/Paddock Wood area, all fields totally flooded by standing water and still raining heavily.

It is worth remembering that there are exceptionally high spring tides next week, so any big storms coming from the Atlantic could be something to keep an eye on from that perspective.