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James Maidstone

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Everything posted by James Maidstone

  1. James Maidstone
    UkV still sticking to the Southern Tracking. Very interested to see the 12z GFS, ECM, Arpege and Arome. Icon 12z is alligning with a South Coast track
  2. James Maidstone
    Assuming it is strong enough then it would be safe. No flying debris issues etc
  3. James Maidstone
    Notable that no Ensemble members take the centre through London or even Luton, all further North and/or West. Just highlights the major uncertainty which still exists where in relative terms principle models are still a long way apart
  4. James Maidstone
    UKV now really at odds with other models with maintaining more Southerly track. Any idea where the latest GFS and ECM sit within the ensembles? Hope we are not about to have a Met Office fiasco!
  5. James Maidstone
    Listening to the deep dive from the Met Office and the reference to the rapid cyclogenisis only taking place a few hundred miles West of Cornwall tomorrow afternoon, how accurately can they actually model the track at this stage? Does it increase the "error cone" substantially in comparison to a mature storm coming at us from distance?
  6. James Maidstone
    Why would there be an amber warning extension for winds northwards when the models are trending further South?
  7. James Maidstone
    Saturday wants some attention too, far from a done deal
  8. James Maidstone
    GFS 6z enters further South but hooks NE fairly dramatically and exits over The Wash. If it were to "hook" further West then damaging winds still on the agenda for the South. Still lots to firm up, the storms formation is still in its infancy don't forget
  9. James Maidstone
    60 would inland, especially over the South East
  10. James Maidstone
    Arpege and Icon in line with GFS on track of storm now. ECM kind of on its own both with the initial position further South an the track across the country
  11. James Maidstone
    To me he seems to be playing the storm down a little in compairson to the charts most of the models are churning out
  12. James Maidstone
    Wouldn't rapid cyclogenesis be modelled more accurately these days though? All models are in agreement though that this is to be a very deep area of low pressure, the fine detail is key though. ECM favours a more northerly track with today's 00z having the low centred over Bristol at 12pm Thursday (yesterday's 12z had the centre about 80 miles South). For comparison todays 00z has the low centred over East Anglia at the same time and the Path further South meaning destructive winds less of an issue for the South Coast in comparison to ECM. If the ECM shunts North further still of pulls the storm track more NE then the impact on the South Coast could be a lot more severe. As the saying goes "awaiting a big ECM run this evening!"
  13. James Maidstone
    It was very impressive from Maidstone looking North over the Downs around 4:30. The white cloud dropping down was menacing and circulating for about 30 seconds
  14. James Maidstone
    One question about surface vs upper temps. Looking at ECM 0Z Op in FI, the high pressure over Scotland shows uppers of around +7. Why are daily maxima 2m temps for this only around +5? Is this temperature inversion?
  15. James Maidstone
    To suggest that the GFS has stumbled out of the pub after being threatened by the bouncers on multiple occasions for ejection, only to stagger out onto the street and start swinging wildly at Mr Met Office and ECM as they retire from the local wine bar would be an understatement.
  16. James Maidstone
    2 questions: 1.) With regards to yesterday's 12Z from ECM and it being at the top of the pack, what determines the Operational run and with yesterday's 12Z from ECM how could that run be considered to have had "The best data"? 2.) With regards to the warm SST and the effect they are having on DPs and temps around prevailing coastal areas, how much could a 2 or 3 week cold spell moderate these so that if the current synopsis is still here towards the end of December the SSTs become less of a factor? Thanks
  17. James Maidstone
    Latest 6z Icon reverts closer to GFS, i.e. slower to shift the heat which would be encouraging for 40 degree chasers
  18. James Maidstone
    The devil is in the detail for the Met Office warnings. Look at the matrix, "Unlikely"
  19. James Maidstone
    just another nasty accident!! wasn't Hot Fuzz actually set in Wells too?
  20. James Maidstone
    it is worth referencing that the said gust is for a fairly exposed location in Capel Curig. It is a fair bit higher than Betws y Coed, but gusts there (and rainfall totals) are always accentuated by the local relief. I would imagine in Betws that gusts are at least 20mph less than Capel.
  21. James Maidstone
    These are max gusts from the whole of the storms evolution, so the 200kph is the storm passing through there SW of Ireland in the early hours of Friday and the associated gusts with it.
  22. James Maidstone
    I think todays 12z are important to see if the southerly trend continues, but as other posters have said it is going to be short term forecasting and gives the Met Office a bit of a headache, especially with this one hitting populated areas. Go red too early and it is only really "Amber worthy" and doesn't develop as expected or the stronger winds are too far south then the standard tabloid reader/bloke down the pub will be giving it the biggun "Useless/panicking over nothing as usual" etc. Leave it too late and people will say they weren't warned. Ultimately people in this country just don't listen to the detail, they don't listen to the experts and either way the experts are too often forced to water down information to suit the lowest common denominator. Either way, it is a very interesting period of weather watching.
  23. James Maidstone
    That's way better, much better, not a "bit" better... Ozzy will be flying home for it!
  24. James Maidstone
    "There is a light and it never goes out"
  25. James Maidstone
    Isn't Buxton at about 800ft ASL?
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