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BruenSryan
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Was greeted with these conditions at the Barnesmore Gap yesterday evening in Donegal at blue hour.
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Summer 2020 was an abomination in Dublin, worst summer I have lived through for somebody who seeks the most amount of sunshine possible in this cloudy climate. It was my cloudiest on record, each month was very cloudy... June the cloudiest since 1993, July the cloudiest since 1986 and August the cloudiest on record. It was also very wet with below average temperatures. I did not get any heat from the August heatwave after the 7th. In fact, whilst places had nearly mid 30s on the 10th, I had low cloud, drizzle/light rain and 16C. This must be what it's like living on the northeast England coast during a heatwave or easterly period. Not jealous, don't usually get that here but that occasion had high humidity which was a recipe for it.
Summer 2021 was just fine. Doesn't stand out overall. I'd take it any year but meh. July heatwave was absolutely brilliant though and final week of August minus last 3 days was also wonderful bringing the best August weather I had seen in years despite such a poor, cloudy 3 weeks beforehand though August 2022 would be even better. July either side of that heatwave though was rubbish and June was fine but rather benign. Very dry but not much standout memorable warm, sunny days.
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Was only a kid but this is what I'd probably put for the weather in Dublin and my preferences if I were to redo the 2000s but be like I am now.
2000 - Autumn (echoing most I'm sure and obvious why, extremely wet)
2001 - Autumn (a mediocre Sep with a mild Oct/Nov, no thanks)
2002 - Summer (cloudiest of my lifetime until 2020, June and especially July terrible.. August meh, still too cloudy but not awful)
2003 - Winter (none of the seasons overall bad, excellent year but winter mostly benign and not much snow to speak of but very sunny Jan/Feb)
2004 - Summer (very wet but not the worst in the world, pretty warm with some decent periods in June and August, a poor July and August thunderstorms)
2005 - Spring (all months mediocre rather than complete write offs)
2006 - Spring (a lovely April but terrible March and very wet May)
2007 - Summer (exceptionally wet with awful daytime temperatures)
2008 - Summer (exceptionally wet again - August 2008 one of the worst summer months in living memory with record-breaking flooding rains)
2009 - Autumn (I vaguely remember 2009 seasons and didn't dislike any of them but autumn the worst if I had to pick for the forgettable October and very wet November. Summer 2009 I liked)
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Keep the reports and pics coming. Very much appreciated. Thinking of making a journey to the north this week as I will get zilch here in Dublin for another fortnight at least. However, will only make the trek if it's a decent covering.
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2nd March 2011. Great Dun Fell had a RH of 6%
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8 hours ago, Don said:
This current spell of weather is reminding me a little of November 2009. However, I personally do not expect a 2009/10 repeat and think the best we can expect (for those wanting a cold winter) is something akin to 2000/01. Just my opinion though.
Given I had two very decent snow events that winter and a lovely frosty January, I will more than take it! 7cm fell on 28th Dec and 10cm on 27th Feb. Though the same patterns now would no doubt bring cold rain pffff
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8 minutes ago, Frigid said:
Shap seems to be a cold spot, always see them pop up during cold spells. Impressively, they also recorded -8.4C in April 2021 and -5.8C in May 2021.. not sure if those are records but could well be. What a cold Spring that was.
Only went down to 1C last night but we did get a frost on Sunday morning, with a temp of -0.8C.
It has records since 1992. These are its monthly records.
Jan -16.1C 8th Jan 2010
Feb -11.6C 11th Feb 2021
Mar -14.1C 2nd Mar 2001
Apr -8.4C 11th Apr 2021
May -6.1C 18th May 1996
Jun -1.1C 7th Jun 2005
Jul 1.4C 23rd Jul 2011
Aug -0.2C 22nd Aug 1999
Sep -2.6C 22nd Sep 2012
Oct -9.2C 16th Oct 1993
Nov -11.7C 24th Nov 1993
Dec -17.9C 8th Dec 2010
-5.8C in May 2021 is not a record as May 1996 had -6.1C. May 2010 also had -5.8C.
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9 hours ago, Daniel* said:
Looks like the earliest -4C in England since 5th October 2003?
For the UK as a whole, don't have to go back very far... Altnaharra and Braemar achieved -5.0C in late September 2020 as early as the 24th.
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5th consecutive 20C day here in Dublin. Mad for October. Had only 3 20C days during October this century before 2023 and now 5 on the dot. Dublin Airport had 23.2C yesterday too which bet old October record by 2 degrees. That's the September and October records broken in the same autumn. November for the hat trick? I hope not though it would be a quirky stat. My birthday (11 Nov) last year was stupidly mild. No thanks to a repeat.
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4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Do we have the January and February and March charts.
All in the link I provided but here they are.
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Just now, Don said:
November chart looks excellent, but December not so, with low pressure to our west, meaning we are likely to be 'at the end of the line' of any easterlies. However, could be some good battleground scenarios?
I was thinking more from a stratospheric point of view to be honest and keeping the stratospheric polar vortex disrupted. I've certainly seen better actual synoptics, February 2024 on the ECCC for example though there's that Russian ridging again that just didn't seem to relent in 2020-21.
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3 hours ago, sundog said:Can't remember early March 2015. The first few days of Feb were the coldest of the winter. Cold snap with frost.
Surprised, was a pretty good fall as far as polar maritime is concerned though it was gone quickly as with nearly all PM episodes (minus January 1984). I believe the video below is from Meath though not 100%.
C3S seasonal models are out now for anyone that wants to check.
Charts | Copernicus
CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EUParticular interest from the UK Met for November and December...
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9 hours ago, sundog said:
Was winter 14/15 the sunniest on record for parts of the UK and Ireland? It was a winter that for all the pm air I was always waiting for something more substantial to happen which never did. Frustrating.
Was certainly here in the east of Ireland. 1962-63 and later 2017-18 were sunnier for the UK as a whole, I believe England had its 2nd sunniest behind only 1999-2000. A very frustrating season indeed. Though I wasn't on the scene back then, I've read back about all the hype surrounding it and the "October Pattern Index" which 2014 was very negative and provided hopes for the winter AO/NAO. 2014-15 was one of the most positive NAOs on record in the end. Least it was more seasonable than some of the warmth we've seen. Think your region had a fair amount of snow from the NW'ly on 1st March 2015. Remember a rare mention of Dublin and snow by Peter Gibbs on the BBC forecast as the Six Nations was on in the Aviva that day.
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44 minutes ago, SunSean said:
What's that website? Looks pretty useful for stats!
The best stats site around, made passionately by one of our Mets in his free time!
http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/ukobs/sun_month_summary_map.php
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On 02/10/2023 at 16:28, SunSean said:
Damn, I always imagine Ireland as exceptionally cloudy but you got some good totals in there! Some of the worst months in my area (May 2021, August 2010, June 2013) you got great levels of sunshine! You even beat us for December 2010 & 2022, quite surprising. Thanks for the info.
There is an amusing tendency for Ireland to "behave different" at times. I mean look at that sunshine total distribution in May 2021 in the map below of Ireland vs Great Britain generally. August 2010 we were fortunate to find ourselves in a clearer arctic maritime airmass, pretty unusual and rare for a summer month. Didn't get that lucky in rubbish like summer 2020 or July 2023 though
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13 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:
I was in Cleadon in South Tyneside in 2007, where the first 10 days of June had persistent low cloud and at times sea fret and came out even duller than the period of wet weather that followed. Eastern Scotland was also heavily affected and, remarkably, in Aberdeen, December 2006 had more sunshine than June 2007. However, in Tyneside while July was wet, sunshine was just slightly below normal and then August was quite sunny and dry. Also there was that exceptional April beforehand.
In 2012 we had that phenomenal March, especially the spell late in the month, but then I remember the rest of that spring/summer mostly being a washout and being very dull, apart from a fine spell late May and a spell late July/early August when we had two dry sunny spells sandwiching a spell with sun, showers and thunder.
Thus for me, since the turn of the century 2012 just about edges it. 2002 is another candidate for me, though I remember late March and April being warm and sunny which probably just saves it from getting the wooden spoon.
Going further back, 1988 sticks out for many parts of England (though not Tyneside, which unusually had more sunshine than London that summer) and 1993 for much of Scotland, as the fine weather of early and late June 1993 struggled to penetrate north of the Scottish border. Perhaps also 1998 in some parts of the country, again especially Scotland, as August 1998 was another north-south split month.
Not a surprise you had sea fret with a pattern like this in early June 2007. A pretty good spell for Ireland as you'd expect with easterly winds though the first weekend of the month was an absolute washout by slow-moving active fronts coming up against the anticyclone to the NE.
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The king is late June/early July 2018.
Morecambe Bay had 113.7 hrs of sunshine from 29th June-5th July 2018 which is a UK record for any 7-day period.
Dublin Airport (my closest official station) wasn't too far off with 107.4 hrs from 28th June-4th July 2018 which is probably an Ireland record.
Other very sunny 7-day periods for my locale:
23rd-29th June 1995 104.6 hrs
15th-21st June 1957 101.8 hrs
4th-10th June 2013 101.4 hrs
18th-24th June 1949 101.3 hrs
16th-22nd July 2021 99.3 hrs
29th May-4th June 2009 99.2 hrs
27th May-2nd June 2020 96.5 hrs
13th-19th July 2006 95.7 hrs
7th-13th August 2022 95.1 hrs
29th May-4th June 2006 92.1 hrs
29th May-4th June 2016 92.0 hrs
22nd-28th May 2012 88.1 hrs
6th-12th July 2013 88.0 hrs
27th April-3rd May 2007 81.8 hrs
3rd-9th June 2018 81.2 hrs
21st-27th May 2010 81.0 hrs
27th April-3rd May 2011 80.3 hrs
I had 14 consecutive days of 11 hrs+ from 21st June-4th July 2018. Had 14 consecutive days of 10 hrs+ from 14th-27th August 1976.
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4 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
If we had 17-19C 850hPa temperatures across England during July, somewhere could see 33-34C on the surface!
I don't think July this year managed anything above 18C. Barely scraped 30C one day.
I believe the highest measured from a radiosonde was 15.4C on 8th July at Herstmonceux. Looks like there could have been 16-17C based on reanalysis. Significantly short of today's value in Cornwall anyway.
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On 06/10/2023 at 16:01, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
Where does 2007 sit mate on this? I know we had a positive AO in May, until AAM collapsed in June and it was a pretty disappointing summer overall with May to July having exceptional rain totals that year. Also 2007 was the start of a climate change pause which resumed again from July 2013 onwards.
The index was 211 for 2007 which was better than 2023 and is slightly above the 91-20 average showing how much the spring skewed it (especially April of course). 2008 was much worse with 184. The mean max for spring/summer in 2008 was over 0.5C cooler than the same period in 2007.
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850hPa temperature at Camborne today was 18.8C at 12z, a record for October beating 17.4C on 16th October 2017 (Ophelia). Likely was higher achieved that day going by reanalysis but Herstmonceux did not ascend at the time the record would have been set. Nonetheless, I think it's safe to say this is a record warm October airmass. I have not seen 850s as high as 18/19C on historic October charts. 8th October 1995 did impressively bring 17C 850s into Scotland.
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29 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Nice to know we have some overseas IWO fans
21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:More foehn effect, I reckon.
That blue sky to my west disappeared without ever passing over me. Ah well. It looks a bit clearer tomorrow on the models, but still some high cloud.
Really feels like a (cloudy) summer’s day.
Indeed very likely foehn inducive as the station is on the leeward side of the Wicklow Mountains with a southwesterly wind. Still the highest since 1969 anywhere in the country and highest in the Republic since 1959. Probably the 4th highest October value on record in Ireland and with a lot of cloud. Indicative of how warm this airmass really is. Makes you wonder if the sunshine was widespread..
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On 04/10/2023 at 21:06, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
July 2007 was worse than 2012, much wetter and cooler. The only consolation prize was near to average sunshine.
In the north, where he lives, not the case. In July 2012, the jet stream started to take a more northerly track by the 21st and 22nd which meant a drier and warmer period for the south whilst the north continued to be wet and cloudy. In 2007 the jet stream was consistently on a southerly track. July 2007 was actually very sunny in the northwest of Ireland as a result and was miles better than 2012 there.
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On 20/08/2023 at 12:59, BruenSryan said:
Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.
The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]
I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error.
The best spring/summer combo years:
1995 262
2022 258
1976 257
2003 248
1955 247
1984 245
2018 243
1911 243
1989 242
1949 241
1990 240
The worst:
1912 148
1920 149
1985 151
1924 153
1931 153
1979 156
1916 157
1927 159
1963 159
1954 161
The worst this century is 2012 with 176.
2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?
Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation.
Getting back to this post, the final 2023 value was 206. Not that far off the estimate I gave. So very slightly worse than 1991-2020 average.
The number of rain days was 80 which was the highest since 2012 though historically is not that exceptional. 1907 had as much as 95 rain days and the infamous wet year of 1903 at 93. This century, only spring/summer 2008 and 2012 had more rain days than 2023.
The relatively sunny May and very sunny June skewed the sunshine and it was only the cloudiest spring/summer since 2019 with 982.4 hrs. 2019 had 978.9 hrs. 2012 is the cloudiest this century with 875.8 hrs.
Overall a very forgettable spring/summer skewed heavily by the exceptional June. Historically insignificant period.
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2 hours ago, Alexis said:
Somebody show me 2010's forecast from the archives!
The closest we have is the Glosea and original CFS.
You said "2010" which I'm unsure if you mean 2009-10 or 2010-11 so here's both.
2009-10
Glosea October update showed a huge positive pressure anomaly over Iceland and southeast of Greenland with low pressure around the Azores. Good forecast.
CFS also was keen on blocking over Greenland and lower heights over Europe.
2010-11
Glosea picked up the blocking quite well again with ridging tending to be close to the UK & Ireland. It picked up on the fact that the second half of the winter would become zonal, westerly driven with any anticyclonic influence near Greenland completely gone by January-February-March anomaly.
CFS did well too on picking up the Greenland blocking.
Pretty successful all round as far as their October runs go.
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Most extreme mild Jan-Mar periods
in Historic Weather
Posted
Here's the mildest January-March periods for the UK mean since records began in 1884.