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BruenSryan
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Posts posted by BruenSryan
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Both July 2020 and July 2021 here had less than 35 hours of sun up to the 13th in Dublin. July 2023 is significantly ahead of both with 63.3 hrs albeit that's still hardly great, just not as bad and 2021 got a very sunny spell soon after with a heatwave so got a huge boost and became the sunniest since 2013 here. 2023 will not be the same.
A good place to view sunshine (aside from SunSean's tables) is Roostweather:
Starlings Roost Weather
STARLINGSROOST.DDNS.NETHere's the latest to 14th.
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4 hours ago, plymsunshine said:
Out of interest - what would the stats be like if we got a June 2023 combined with a July and August 2022? Some three consecutive summer months even if they did span over two years. Would it challenge 1976 for temperature and sunshine?
In terms of UK stats (some people have mentioned the CET). 1976 in brackets
Mean temp: 16.30C (15.70C)
Mean max: 21.40C (21.01C)
Mean min: 11.33C (10.44C)
Sunshine: 635.4 hrs (672.1 hrs)
So yes it would smash in terms of temperature but sunshine no. July 2022 was actually quite cloudy in the north and brought down the UK average (179.5 hrs compared to 223.8 hrs in 1976). August 1976 was also decently sunnier than 2022 but both were still very sunny.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Didn't the final two days of 2020 make it? I remember the 30th being really sunny and dry as well as hot, the 31st was encumbered by mid level cloud in the afternoon.
July 2020 was a bit meh but IIRC it was less cyclonic than what the models are showing for the next two weeks or so. A lot of cool and cloudy weather, rather like today and yesterday. (So far this month hasn't been terrible - just a bit cool and cloudy - but obviously the worst of it hasn't arrived yet).
30th failed with 29.7C. 31st got to 37.8C.
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16 minutes ago, Frigid said:
I'd say poorest since 2020, we didn't reach 20C until the 12th with many days stuck around 14-16C. The theme for the past few years is weather systems being persistent, the dry weather we just had started in early May and didn't end till late June. If this theme continues then I wouldn't be surprised to see a July devoid of any notable warmth - when was the last July that failed to reach 30C..?
2011. Was meant to be 2020 if it weren't for that last day..
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Just now, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Nope, I simply misremembered, the incredibly hot spell was in July my bad. Was out the country for 3 weeks in Spain around that period so it's a little hazy.
Not just simply misremembered, you also stated as if the temperature values on one or two days make a month the hottest on record when it's the mean temperature that does that. For example, July 2022 may have the absolute highest maximum temperature on record but it is not the UK's warmest/hottest July on record. That is 2006.
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11 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
How? We had high 30s and a 40c last year in June in London.
Please tell me you’re joking..
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On 14/06/2023 at 15:22, richie3846 said:
We're seeing more spells like this pop up out of the blue and without perfect conditions for the highest temperatures. For example, many areas have had downpours the last few days, so that rules out dry ground as a prerequisite. Also one of the days was quite cloudy and very humid. Even with those factors we have seen this record breaking spell, with new date records set for the UK on at least 3 days I believe.
Another one... the 7-day CET mean max for 9th-15th June 2023 was 26.6C. Only 3 other June weeks since 1878 have been as warm or warmer than this - late June 1878, late May/early June 1947 (phenomenal spell) and of course the exceptional late June 1976. (Late June/early July 2018 also achieved this technically speaking)
Not that unusual to have a 26.6C in July but in June, very remarkable and the first half too. Only the 1947 spell has achieved that in the CET max record since 1878.
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CET has had 4 consecutive days with a mean max of 27C or more from 10th-13th June 2023. You have to go back to June 1976 for the last time this occurred in the month of June for both consecutive days and total days overall. Very very impressive and it was 2 weeks earlier than 1976.
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6 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
"It took until the 3rd for the temperature to reach 20C somewhere in Britain for the first time in the year - the latest since 1983. On the 4th it reached 27.7 at Northolt (London), the earliest 80F has been exceeded since 1995, and the highest temperature of the month."
The quote from Trevor Harley was more location specific than I remembered, but it had been years.
Fair enough, the April 2003 warm spell was west centric with being easterly rather than southerly.
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2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
A bit of a funny one
May 3, 2006: the latest date to reach 20°C since 1983
May 4, 2006: the earliest date to reach 27/28°C since 1995
April 2003 achieved 27C mid-month though which was 2 weeks earlier.
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The years I know of since 1970 from memory:
1975, 1976, 1989, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022
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My lifetime for this one as I do not know historic poor months too well apart from the obvious likes of August 1912.
January 2013
February 2017
March 2013
April 2017
May 2015
June 2002
July 2020
August 2020
September 2016
October 2017
November 2019
December 2018
A common theme: All very cloudy! And in the case of September 2016, far too warm for the time of year. June 2002 I don't have memories, I was just over 1 and a half years old but statistically it was quite poor and I would have hated it I'd say. June 2019 at least had an ok second half, fine ending and June 2012 I liked the novelty of it being so wet.
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January 1881
February 1895
March 2022
April 2007
May 2020
June 1940
July 1955
August 1947
September 1959
October 1921
November 1919
December 2010
Obviously most of these not in my lifetime!-
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15 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Can we nudge into the 4s or hold at 5 degrees, next couple of days looking quite mild, I'd say 50/50 either way. Good to know last time we had a Dec end in the 3s and a Jan in the 4s.. not many a case recently. Indeed good to just see two winter months back to back not produce a silly 6 degree plus figure, lets see if Feb can hold off doing the same.
1923-24.
Dec 3.8C and Jan 4.7C
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1 hour ago, Singularity said:
I subsequently improved my SSW analysis with better targeted 'impact periods' for the historical events. That reduced the difference between displacement and split type events with respect to temperatures across NW Europe , though the latter remain the more conducive to cold conditions.
From reading around over the years, my impression is that split type events tend to produce longer-lasting, less marginal cold spells compared to displacements. Enough so that the cases where a cold spell stops short of the UK are outweighed in the mean for split type events but not displacement type ones where it balances out.
Note the different story in the eastern US where displacements tend to hit harder. I believe this is due to a propensity for such events to place a stratospheric high near or over Canada, leading to an Arctic High regime over N. America. Unlike here in the UK, though, both type of events tend to result in notable cold spells (but over different timeframes - often it turns cold in the US at around the time that it becomes less cold in Europe).
Somehow I missed this, bloody algorithm, thanks! That's much more like what you'd expect, was flabbergasted by the original results.
So both events do create blocking but the tendency for the cyclone track following a displacement event tends to be further northward over Europe giving that unreliable nature - more of a west based -NAO?
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Singularity did this 2m temp reanalysis of periods following PV displacement and PV split events. Clearly the signal for cold in Europe and indeed North America is significantly stronger following a PV split compared to a displacement. The signal doesn't favour colder or milder than avg following displacement in western Europe but there's a great difference over Greenland following both. Much colder following displacement there indicative of +NAO whilst much warmer following split indicative of -NAO.
As he says though you would have thought there'd be a greater signal for cold in NA following a displacement than what this analysis shows.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Though I'd say December probably beats it. We have had a few mostly settled Novembers in the past 10 years (2013, 2016, 2017, 2021), but struggling to think of a December with prolonged settled spells. 2014 is the only example since 2011, I think.
Eh, 2016. Dec 2016 has the 2nd highest average pressure for Heathrow of any month this century so far.
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3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:
2010 was very much a calm year for the Atlantic and the start of drought conditions across much of the UK. Wouldn't surprise me if synoptics follow a similar route with a quieter than average Atlantic.
Wasn't the North Atlantic Hurricane Season also a late starter and silent one?
? 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record...
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Interesting, and somewhat different contingency planners forecast from the Met for NDJ 2022-23.
October update
November to January
- The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.
- There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.
- Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.
- Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.
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21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
And it wasn't cool overall, December 2002 was above average
Indeed. I didn't say in case as I wasn't looking at stats typing that reply. The only thing noteworthy about that month was how grim cloudy it was. I'd imagine a lot of frustration that month with eastern Europe severe cold and the easterlies here never getting that severe.
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
01-02 had a cool December (high to the east brought cool, dull south easterlies) but the rest of winter was horrific.
05-06 saw the coldest second half to November since 1993 along with a very cold first half of March. The winter itself was very sunny, produced more than 30 frosts here in West Yorkshire and a couple of snow events albeit low amounts. It was a winter known for ‘easterly topplers’ whereby an attempt would occur (Europe had a cold winter) but the high would end up too close. It had its moments though..
A few days of snow for the north east.
Almost, not quite.
Success at last.
That cool dull Dec you speak of was 2002, not 2001. Dec 2001 was the sunniest on record. But yes the rest of 2001-02 was horrific.
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2000-01 was colder than 2005-06 in the north, milder in the south. 2000-01 was also colder than 2008-09 in the north. 2005-06 in brackets and the other figures are 2000-01, all tmeans.
UK: 3.51C (3.81C)
England: 4.21C (3.96C)
Wales: 4.07C (4.03C)
Scotland: 2.14C (3.31C)
Northern Ireland: 3.83C (4.86C)
Central England: 4.3C (4.2C)
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1 hour ago, Don said:
Those C3S charts are from August though so are now out of date.
I didn't mean to cause confusion with showing those out of date charts, just the point being made that z500 anomalies are vulnerable to thermal expansion from warming whilst MSLP isn't, why we often see those z500 forecasts with so much positive heights and how they require more careful interpreting with where the blocks and troughs are situated.
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9 minutes ago, LRD said:
I know these charts are not to be taken literally but that is a weird bit of modelling. Basically, high anomalies dominate virtually the entire globe north of the tropics. Seems unlikely.
However, what I would read from that is that the NH winter jet stream might be weak and will not be generating many unusually deep lows. The deeper red anomaly in the Atlantic and Svalbard might be a good sign* though, I s'pose
*if you want a cold winter this year, which, bearing in mind the s***show the world (and the UK) is at the moment, I know might not be to everyone's tastes this year. A cold winter would be proper sod's law, though
Simon Lee brought up a good point why geopotential charts may do that. I tend to lean more towards MSLP anomalies as a result for forecasts.
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July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by BruenSryan
The following years had June with the highest CET mean max since 1970. (second warmest in brackets)
1993 19.6C (July/August 19.1C)
1992 20.9C (July 20.2C)
1970 21.7C (August 20.4C)
July had a higher mean max in 2010 with 21.4C vs 20.3C.