[Irish Washout Of Late August 1905]

Some other totals (but in millimetres) from this rainstorm.

Bray, Fassaroe, Co. Wicklow with 114.3mm on the 25th
Newcastle, Co. Wicklow with 104.4mm on the 25th
Dublin City with 87.4mm on the 25th
Phoenix Park, Co. Dublin with 85.1mm on the 25th
Trinity College, Co. Dublin with 83.8mm on the 25th
Clongowes Wood College, Co. Kildare with 74.4mm on the 25th
Roches Point, Co. Cork with 50.8mm on the 24th
Birr Castle, Co. Offaly with 49.3mm on the 25th

It would be the worst rainstorm in this part of the country until Charley in August 1986 which hit on the same date. 

[The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record]

14 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Spring 2013 was a siberian season in the UK, it was dominated by a negative NAO and the strong SSW in January was responsible for causing it as the PV was then displaced in the wrong place and then it was basically destroyed.    

Wonder @mushymanrobwhere 2013 fits in to everything?   

You can see it in the graph I showed...

It had an index of 218 which is better than average in spite of the very cold spring. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

26 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

As well as days with 16/17c maxes and 14/15c mins... Lol.

Like this classic example I had on 31st July 

[Extreme months without extremes]

May 2022 was the epitome of that! 

Phoenix Park, Dublin had its warmest May on record with a maximum temp of only 20.9C. Records here began in 1855...

Funny thing is, May 2023 would end up equalling it too and it was also very unremarkable. Max was even lower with only 20.5C.

[Who else remembers this storm?]

Very poor and pathetic really given how many had to suffer with the heat but no storm to end it. 

Ireland/Dublin was equally poor but I guess I at least seen some rumbles and lightning compared to most.

One lucky guy in a hospital managed to capture a lightning strike hitting the Poolbeg Chimneys on his phone from this.

 

[August 1912: Coldest, Wettest, Dullest]

13 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

There are other parallels between the Augusts of 1912 and 1986.

Apart from both being so poor, the Norfolk floods giving up to 8 inches rainfall in part of Norfolk occurred at the same time in August 1912 as did ex-tropical storm 'Charlie' giving its trouble in August 1986.

The Septembers of both years produced welcome droughts but they were both still very cool.

There was also an infamous rainstorm on 25th August 1905 in the east of Ireland which was the exact same day as Charley in 1986 and both events impacted the same places very badly. 

25th/26th August not great dates 

[August 1912: Coldest, Wettest, Dullest]

31 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

18% of the average for sun at Margate, 81.8 hours is horrific

I think that's % of possible sun rather than % of avg. 81.8 hrs / 444 hrs (theoretical max possible August sun for 51N where Margate is) = 18%. Actual % of average sun probably somewhere in the 30s which is still absolutely atrocious mind 

Mean max: 15.5C (-4.0C below avg)

Rain: 139.1mm (190%)

Sunshine: 67.3 hours (44%)

Phoenix Park, Dublin stats for it with reference to 1991-2020 averages. Clearly a banger of a summer month 

[Autumn 2023]

4 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

I take particular notice each year, of when trees begin to change and what species turn first before the others, etc. Last year was the latest I have ever seen them change in my 40 years of life and they were still green in some parts in December, until that cold spell finally froze them off. 2010 was the most spectacular colour show I've ever seen this country display. At least in my part of the world (North Wiltshire). I'm really not sure why. September was quite ordinary that year but we had a very cold week in October towards the end and it just seemed to set the countyside on fire in a way I've never seen before or since. Interestingly it was followed by THAT December. 2017 was a year the trees turned very early and put on a good show. Every single explanation I read about why the colours change claim its dictated purely by reducing sunlight levels and this only. But I know from my own lifetime of observations that this isn't true. Cold weather really does produce more red colours and makes them turn quicker. 

I usually get a fairly good idea which was its going to go by the first week of September. Horse Chestnut doesn't count as it always reliably turns the last week of August no matter what the weather, but among our natives: Birch, Hornbeam, Hawthorn, Lime (or Linden), and Rowan are the first to turn. If they don't show any signs of colour in that first week of September then I know it will be another crap, semi-tropical autumn. Ash never puts on a show. Oak and Beech are glorious but turn very late (except in 2010 when they were on fire by the end of October) This year I have definitely seem some early tunring. Was it the chilly nights we had a week ago? The Limes are already yellow and the Hornbeam is going that way. Birch and Rowan are still green.

Cold weather can also make trees lose them all in one night! It's finely balanced as with a lot of things in life.

The best years of recent times in Dublin were definitely 2013 and 2021. Both years shared similar evolutions of weather - cold springs, though of course overall 2021 wasn't nearly as cold as 2013, which delayed the onset of growth. Chlorophyll has a particular lifespan before being lost so I see this as a starter sign of maybe autumn colours will later be seen. The rainfalls of October 2013 and 2021 helped the leaves to stay in good condition with no worries of drought despite dry summer spells. Then cooler nights later in the autumns helped the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly but nothing severe as to destroy it all instantly. Both autumns also tended to have a lack of strong winds, wasn't really affected by the Judes Day storm here in 2013.

So as a result of autumns like these, when I see them not turning early and a late onset of spring, I tend to take it as a positive for a spectacular display of autumn colours by November. 2022 was an exception, that was horrific. I hardly seen any colours thanks to the lack of cold nights and persistent windy conditions through October and November. I guess the very early growth of spring also didn't help. 

Some of the colours here in 2021, no enhancements. Sure it's hardly New England but pretty damn good for here!

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

That's upside down!!  

We wish mate.

[Summer 2023 chat]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

End of meteorogical summer is in sight, and for here at least, no sign of anything notably warm or settled on the cards, Summer 2023 will be classed by me as poor.

Not quite sure where to rank it in the last 20 years. Not as bad as 2007, 2008, 2011 or 2012. Probably worse than our more recent poor summers, 2015, 2017 and 2020, largely on account of such an abysmal high summer period and with that our worse since 2012. The persistent wet dull weather and little in the way of appreciable warmth since late June being the reason.  

Definitely not worse than 2020 here in Dublin on the other side of the sea. June 2023 was way above anything in summer 2020.

June 2023: 226.7 hrs

June 2020: 130.0 hrs (6th cloudiest since 1942 and cloudiest since 1993)

July 2020: 104.2 hrs (3rd cloudiest and cloudiest since 1986)

August 2020: 97.1 hrs (cloudiest on record, beating 2008)

That alone makes summer 2023 significantly better than 2020 despite July 2023 technically being worse than 2020 though it wasn't as cloudy and August 2023 will be forgettable but not terrible. 

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

18 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This is interesting how CFS is already going for a weaker vortex right out to November.

Maybe why a lot of long range models are showing blocking signals.

Fixed it for you.

[The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

where did you get the formula from?.... ive created my own based on central england, but havnt merged spring/summer yet.

Kevin, Mr Data, Weather-History.. whichever name you call him  formula he uses for his Manchester summer index. 

[The worst combined spring/summer seasons on record]

Getting back on track to this thread... I had a look at the UK data and used the Manchester summer index formula to calculate statistically the best and worst spring/summer combos on record. This is the data I found, can go back as far as 1910.

The formula: 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)]

I used the current August scaled up estimate from Roostweather for sunshine in 2023 and for rain days, I used the 1991-2020 average so 2023 will have a fair margin of error. 

The best spring/summer combo years:

1995 262

2022 258

1976 257

2003 248

1955 247

1984 245

2018 243

1911 243

1989 242

1949 241

1990 240

 

The worst:

1912 148

1920 149

1985 151

1924 153

1931 153

1979 156

1916 157

1927 159

1963 159

1954 161

The worst this century is 2012 with 176. 

2023 is much higher at 208. Not that bad. In fact, that's almost bang on the 1991-2020 average of 209. Would be the lowest since 2016. Recency bias and heightened expectations after such a good 2022?

Note this is the national UK average and does not account for regional variation. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Last 3 days IMBY have been very pleasant and sunny. I did post a cloudfest picture yesterday morning but it dissipated an hour later to a sunny day. I feel for anyone who has missed out on sunshine these past few days. Hope you get something decent before August is out. Not good for the mentality to go too long without sunshine.

Last day here with 10 hours or more of sunshine was 22nd June  I don't recall going this long in summer without one before. Even 2020, which I begrudgingly despise, managed one in July and August. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

50 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

I can't think of a year where all summer months were fantastic. Usually one month ends up with terrible and cool weather. I feel like the worst part of this year is the terrible spring weather, it was freezing cold with a north-east breeze right up into the back end of May.

1959. July was wet because of intense thunderstorms with some of the highest rainfall rates on record in the UK, it did not have a high number of wet days. In fact, it included a 2 week rainless spell for the SE. May-October 1959 all warmer and sunnier than average, September and October exceptionally so. May, August and September very or extremely dry. Places had a drought from mid-August to mid-October with no rain in the east.

About the most wonderful extended summer in terms of persistence of fine weather but without the extreme highs though it still got to 34.4C in July at Cromer. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Not massively shocking considering the June we had. But as you say, it demonstrates why stats don't paint the whole picture, and there's alot more to factor in, most notably, rainfall levels, cloud-cover, and wind chill, all of which made many otherwise 'average' days feel absolutely grim throughout July and early August.

Indeed, as warm as most of the June was, it doesn't change the fact that - outside of the shift over the last 3 days or so, and that warm day on July the 8th, it's been consistently cool, wet and very dull/cloudy for the last 6 weeks. 

June could've been 30c and 100% clear skies every single day for all it matters - because, when followed up by a 6 week long period of unsummery conditions, that June weather becomes a very distant memory in terms of our 'perception' of the season from an ongoing, and more importantly, a present, perspective. When there's no sun for more than 15 mins at a time for weeks, and every single weekend plan gets ruined by rain for basically whole of July and first chunk of August most people don't really care how hot / sunny it was back in mid June. 

Got to also bear in mind - these are mean temps, so obviously are affected by the temps of the lows at night as well. Which mean next to nothing in terms of how we actually 'experience' the season (unless you're wandering about outside at 3am of course, lol). 

If isolating out the mean max (so no skewing from nights) using the current August estimate, then it drops to the 15th warmest since 1884 with higher mean maxima in 1976, 1995, 2018, 2022, 2006, 1899, 2003, 1933, 1911, 1947, 1983, 1975, 1887 and 2013. 

Just more evidence how much June has skewed things. In statistical terms, a "hot" June will make more difference than a hot July given how low the baseline is for June and it often brings the seasonal mean down. This is why summer 1976 is still by far the warmest for the Central England region with no June coming close to 1976 since then up until 2023 though of course 2023 will fall flat because of a mediocre July temperature wise and August will be slightly milder than average by the looks, both very different to their 1976 counterparts.

[Summer 2023 chat]

8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

according to Chat GBT the warmest summer in the UK was 1976 

ChatGPT would be correct, in terms of mean max. 1976 had cooler nights than some of the others bringing the mean down.

[Summer 2023 chat]

2 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

2023 just two spots below 1995 is absolutely insane to see. The perception amongst most of the general public of 2023 is that it's been a poor summer which is such a contrast with the statistics. Shows stats don't tell the full story. 

I guess it will end up quite wet though?

I myself will look back on this summer as a poor one despite what the stats say and I'm usually an advocate for stats over people's recollections. 

If we take the estimated value above from the screenshot, which is a scaled up total to month's end using current average millimetres per day, summer 2023 would be on the wet side but not exceptional (around 116%). Since 2010... 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2020 will have been wetter. 

This will change however unlike the temperature which I don't see changing much unless a sudden cold spell (yes cold, not just cool) comes out of nowhere bringing freezing cold nights for the time of year. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

Hypothetically, if August finished with the estimated UK mean of 15.4C, it would be the 8th warmest summer on UK record since 1884. Look forward to people's reactions to that at the end of this month. Goes to show just how much the ridiculous June skewed things. 

Only the following summers would have been warmer since 1884:

2018 15.76C

2006 15.75C

2003 15.74C

2022 15.71C

1976 15.70C

1995 15.62C

1933 15.38C

2023 15.37C 

It will be so strange to have 2023 amongst those summers because all those were absolute classics. Can't say the same for this atrocity (minus June).

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

18 hours ago, Don said:

I thought winter 1997/98 was in a westerly QBO?

It was westerly in the lower stratosphere (50hPa) but slowly transitioned to easterly reaching 30hPa by February. It was a transitioning winter rather than a particular phase of dominance unless you go lower down.

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

How well did CFS do for predicting the July just gone? 

Indeed how did any of these long range models did for July 2023?

A good test for the performance of these long range models. 

 

Forecasts through various points in June. Started off with an anticyclonic signal to the east which would be a very warm/hot month. It began to raise heights over Greenland coming to the end of June and our anticyclone disappearing. It eventually caught onto the low pressure in July itself. IE CFSv2 didn't forecast July well, at all.

[Summer 2023 chat]

The summer only keeps getting better. August wetter than average after an overnight deluge from storm Antoni with 51mm of rain, 5 days in not even. Dublin Airport is having its wettest summer since 2012. 

Following on from the 2nd wettest July since 1939.

[Summer 2023 chat]

19 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

What makes a Greenland high a summer killer but a winter dream? I would guess that it makes northerlies more likely and blocks warm air please correct me if I am wrong 

If you get blocking high pressure over Greenland, it tends to correspond to a trough undercutting beneath with the jet stream on a southerly track bringing relatively cool Atlantic air and low pressure systems to the UK and Ireland. Summer wavelengths mean the jet stream doesn't go as far south as it can in winter typically. In wintertime, provided the blocking high isn't all the way towards the Canadian side of Greenland (west based negative NAO), this can bring along severe cold weather with winds from the northeast and last a prolonged period of time.

[Summer 2023 chat]

Donna Nook, Lincolnshire MSLP bottomed out at 982 hPa according to WeatherOnline.

The last time I've been able to find a depression as deep as that over England in the first half of August was all the way back on 5th August 1985. Other deep depressions have been either over Ireland/Scotland or in the second half.

[Summer 2023 chat]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Did anyone anticipate how wet this July would turn out? Was there any indication that we were looking down the barrel?

I had doubts about this summer in a post back in February fearing it would be more like from the 2007-12 summer grouping but the start of June dispelled my fears so I didn't  expect July would turn out to be the wettest on record for NW England, wetter than July 1988.

 

I did not but there was always the warning from nature in my opinion that if the westerlies were to take hold, the North Atlantic sea temperatures would enhance atmospheric river type setups giving a lot of rainfall. I suspected that happening more from thunderstorms though which apart from the brief plume-type setup on the first weekend clearly did not happen in July. 

I consider July 2023 a spectacular flop on winter fail proportions from seasonal forecasts and long range models, especially the EC46 which did not catch on until the first week of July that the month was not going to be warm and dry. 

[Summer 2023 chat]

Finally at the end of this atrocity of a July. Only July 2009 has been wetter in the 84 year Dublin Airport record than 2023 for July. It's also been the 6th cloudiest since but not as cloudy as July 2020. Wettest month since November 2019 and wettest summer month since August 2014. Erase it from existence.