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BruenSryan
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Posts posted by BruenSryan
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32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Those in the north who like cold and snow would happily take another 20-21. it had its moments, plenty of light snows, just lacked a big snowfall eveng here. Dec was a sandwich month, cold start and end, similiar to 2008, Jan was generally cold, Feb cold first half, mild second. Overall very 08-09, and quite 00-01.
I'd prefer something much better! Feb easterly was especially a hard pill to swallow with lots of graupel, very little snow and seeing Scotland/eastern England coasts... ugh.
Feb 2009, Dec 2000 and Feb 2001 events were miles better than anything here in 2020-21.
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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Got to look at that Giacamo Masato model with glee as a coldie. Blocking near Greenland of course but more so for that huge block over Scandi and the Urals. The polar vortex will very likely be toast if that comes off and the big SSW that could be generated from that setup.
It's identical to 2020-21. With all those eastern Europe heights and the positioning of the trough, I don't consider it that great personally.
He also said that is the top analog, so no coincidence here.
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3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Dunno about the CFS but here's CANSIPS
Very intriguing forecast, not least because it's the CanSIPS going against its usual grain but it shows blocking in an area that would be likely conducive to a disturbed stratospheric polar vortex. Very EP Niña esque. It contrasts with the mid-Atlantic ridging signal that was apparent on many seasonal models for their September runs.
Wonder what CanSIPS is seeing to produce such a distribution of MSLP anomalies.
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1 hour ago, Climate Man said:
December 2.5 deg above my station average over last 30 years. January 0.7 above. February 1.8 above. Not a snow flake.
You sure that's not 2021-22... I don't see anybody here that said the winter just gone was cold..
2020-21 was cold in the north, average elsewhere. Simple as.
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36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Mmm some stronger or neutral heights over the Pole there.. looks a cold trough scenario to me, no stromg euro high and azores high displaced..
Apologise if this is turning into a winter prediction chat, inevitable such chat would kick off now summer gone.
Same in 2013-14... as per the reanalysis in Met4cast's post.
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9 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Manchester Summer Indices
1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
2018 272
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2022 261
Dublin by the same index.
1995 278
1976 262
2018 249
1984 247
1989 246
1975 245
1959 244
1955 242
2006 241
1969 237
1968 237
1983 236
2013 234
1949 232
2022 230
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Good definitely sums up the summer for Dublin, not quite up with the greats of 1995, 2006, 2018.
June too windy and lacked the warmth here. Avoided a lot of the rain Ireland had though. Was cloudy but nothing atrocious. Disappointing after a disappointing May.
July was too cloudy to be considered great. However, it brought the warmest day by far here on record, had plentiful warmth regardless and often very dry so it's to be given some points.
August best in my lifetime, better than 2003. Warmest and sunniest since 1995. I don't have any memories of 2003 anyway being an itty bitty 2 year old! Second week was easily best August spell I have seen, the consistent clear skies was brilliant.
I preferred 2013 and 2018 but a better than average Dublin summer for sure.
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3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
Been out of the UK but: it's remarkable how warm this summer is looking given that (from what I can make out) it has not been an especially sunny summer, perhaps significantly less so than not only 1976 but also years like 1983, 1989, and 1995.
Has it been the case that it was only really sunny between about June 13-22, July 4-18 and August 5-14, and otherwise generally cloudy? A lot of dry, warm but cloudy anticyclonic westerlies I guess.
How is August's sunshine looking? From what I'm reading on here I would guess that much of the country is only on about average sunshine and some places to the north and west, perhaps below average.
On track to be the 4th sunniest in the UK on record (beaten by 1947, 1995 and 1976). The graphic below via here takes current sun hrs per day avg and fills in remaining days to get an estimated final total so not to be taken literally but no getting away from the fact that this will be up there with the sunniest on record.
Hypothetically if 203.8 hrs were the final total for August 2022, the UK as a whole will have had 579.0 hrs in Summer 2022 which puts it as the 11th sunniest since 1919. However, Northern Ireland using the estimated August total will have had a relatively cloudy summer but not exceptionally so due to a sunny August but June and especially July were notably cloudy. For England, it is looking like the first summer since 1989 where all 3 meteorological summer months have had 200 hours or greater and the 5th/6th sunniest on record since 1919. These stats are prone to error due to the August estimation.
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Worst summers in Dublin using the Manchester summer index (since 1942) along with notes why index was poor
2012 157 (all months wet, high number of wet days and cloudy)
2020 157 (exceptionally cloudy and high number of wet days)
1985 161 (cool maxima and cloudy, not overly wet compared to some)
1958 162 (wettest on record)
1980 162 (very cloudy)
1986 163 (very cloudy July and cold/deluge August)
2007 166 (exceptionally wet June/July)
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3 hours ago, Frigid said:
Is 19th July the warmest day on average? Seems like most hot days reside on that day. Examples are 2022, 2021,2016, 2013, 2006
In Ireland, 30C has occurred on 19th July in 2006, 2013, 2016 and 2022 recently.. yet most years we don't see a single 30C. Amusing quirk. It's also known as "Thunderstorm Day" over here for how frequent we can get thundery showers or thunderstorms on it compared to others. At least 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2022 have seen such recently.
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2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:
No CET or EWP yet as of writing this post.
Although it didn't break records or come close to doing so historically, it's good to note that the January to June period of 2022 in England has been the driest respective period since 2010.
2022: 290.7mm
2010: 290.0mm
Before that, have to go back to 1996 to find drier (288.0mm).
The driest on record was back on 1929 when Jan to Jun recorded only 198.7mm. 1976 was 2nd driest with 229.8mm. I'm interested in the SE England region in particular to see how 2022 compares historically.
The data came in for the region in question a bit after I posted this and...
Again it didn't break historic records here but would you believe it was the driest January to June period in SE England/central southern England since 1976?
Apologies if this isn't the place for posting such data.
EDIT: Also, why do I keep getting duplicate images whenever I paste one?
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No CET or EWP yet as of writing this post.
Although it didn't break records or come close to doing so historically, it's good to note that the January to June period of 2022 in England has been the driest respective period since 2010.
2022: 290.7mm
2010: 290.0mm
Before that, have to go back to 1996 to find drier (288.0mm).
The driest on record was back on 1929 when Jan to Jun recorded only 198.7mm. 1976 was 2nd driest with 229.8mm. I'm interested in the SE England region in particular to see how 2022 compares historically.
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11 minutes ago, reef said:
Definitely a massive east-west split this month. We've just passed 225 hours which already makes it the 5th sunniest June in 42 years of records. 1989, 2003 and 2018 had 244, 230 and 241 hours so it wont be that far off that group by the end.
Some difference!
157.7 hours here in Dublin to yesterday, somewhat cloudy. Unremarkably so, much like May.
March had 203.1 hours!
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:
I'm intrigued to see what the June stats for Northern Ireland will be like, because as far as I'm concerned, it has been dreadful with only 3 days I would class as proper Summer. Tomorrow looks like a fitting end to diabolical June.
According to Meteociel, Magilligan in Londonderry has seen only 60.7 hours of sunshine to June 28th. Thomastown in Fermanagh not much better at all with 69.3 hours. That Magilligan total is otherworldly atrocious (Thomastown seems to be vulnerable to such dire sunshine so not a surprise there). I'm almost inclined not to believe it but reading your reports throughout the month, maybe I do!
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
June hasn't been bad truth be told. Currently 0.8c above average - but a bit of a disparity between some warm days and cool nights. If the night time temps had been a bit higher then we could have easily seen something like 1.5c above.
Are we on for the most above average first 6 months of the year ever??Month CET Anomaly
January 4.7 0.8
February 6.9 3.1
March 8.0 2.3
April 9.2 1.3
May 13.1 1.9
June 14. 9 0.8
Every single month above average, with Feb-May exceptionally so. Stattos help!Not quite. If June 2022 CET were to hold at 14.9C, 2022 would have a running CET of 9.466C for first 6 months. 2007, 2020, 2014, 2017, 1846 and 1822 all milder.
Excluding January, then it's 10.42C which would be 3rd mildest behind 2017 (10.64C) and 1822 (10.44C).
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Finally got to see something myself in Dublin, mostly eaten by the incoming cloud but it's a start.
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The way I decide it is always have ISO the lowest possible and be a last resort. Only increase it if you need more light but want to get the NLCs sharp without movement (or of course if you're shooting handheld, which I don't generally recommend for NLC capturing). Aperture and shutter speed very much dependent on the brightness of the landscape and the NLCs. If it's a bright landscape with a fair amount of light pollution, I veer towards f/11 which is a standard for landscapes in general for me. Then I change the shutter speed appropriately until it gets to a necessary level of exposure but if the NLCs are moving fast, I will then bump up the ISO and keep the shutter speed under 10 seconds if possible.
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45 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Didn't it get to 27c in the SE on the weekend 14/15 May ? If it it did it was only a brief incursion of warmth.
It was on the 17th but yes. 27.5C at Heathrow that day.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
Not sure that's quite the case: October had spells of cyclonic weather (not continuous, but potent while they lasted), December was pretty cyclonic, February was stormy, and the first half of March and second half of May frequently affected by low pressure. There were at least 6 named storms this winter, more than 2019/20 when there were, I think, 4 (IIRC Dennis was the last one in 2020, Franklin this year).
To me the past 9 months have seen a return to an average anticyclonic/cyclonic mix, though with a notable lack of northerlies and easterlies hence little in the way of cold. By contrast, most of the period June 2019-August 2021 seemed unusually wet, except spring 2020.
It is the case though, very much been more high pressure than low pressure since the end of August.
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3 minutes ago, emmett garland said:
I totally agree ,today in Dublin is the most appalling conditions with driving drizzle an ocasianal rain feeling like a day on January 9th to be honest. Rotten is the word I cant believe its 4 degrees warmer than new years eve and even colder than the minimun temperature on jan 1st. For stained glass window sake its abysmal that we we can have the same boring bloody temperature every month of the year and I can only say its for the love of where we live and the love of our country that we put up with it, IM sitting in fire on and watching multiple episodes of superstore,its a bank holiday Sunday aaaarrggghhhh not a hope of anything nice happening today and the outlook is appalling.. Thank you MOAN thread RANT OVER...beer o clock now,,
Feels like 3 June 2012 déjà vu. Only a max of 10.6C in Dún Laoghaire that day with gloom all day, drizzle/light rain. We had an ok week in fairness given the pattern but today is pure rotten.
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13 hours ago, richie3846 said:
These are very interesting groupings because it puts the discussion into a wider context - evidently there hasn't been a general trend to cloudier summers, and 89-21 are actually sunnier if you add them together.
Also, the gap between the highest and lowest is only about 55 hours or approximately 10 percent, not really much at all.
A difference of 55 hours is fairly significant for an average over 18 years but I hold the thought too as above that 1989-2006 was a highly anomalous period for summers in this country. The Augusts I have noted before with every year from 1994-2005 having a CET mean max of 20.0C which was very unusual.
In Dublin, my summers have 100% become cloudier over time. July especially recently has been hit hard, April is now sunnier than it. Summer is the only season that received a negative reduction from 81-10 to 91-20, the rest all gained a positive increase. The 1971-2000 period was quite bad granted. So many exceptionally sunny springs this century, very few summers (2006 is the only one here).
The 2007-2021 period has been strange. So many summers dominated by high latitude blocking, some extreme southerlies in the more recent years that kept reoccurring via a wavenumber-7 hemispheric pattern, the same months consistently poor.
Pretty miserable here at the moment. 11C, gloomy, light rain. Poor enough
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19 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
It would be interesting to see southern England figures (particularly south of the M4 and west of Kent) though as @SunSean's figures clearly show a drop in sunnier months since 2007.
Perhaps the cyclonic SW-ly anomaly since 2007 (as shown in @BruenSryan's maps) has meant that southern England has suffered disproportionately since then? Certainly there have been years when the north has done better (e.g. 2021) and from what I gather the extreme SE (Kent) and East Anglia don't do quite as badly for sunshine, and cool daytime temps, in the cyclonic SWly setups common in the past 15 years. I remember many occasions when east Kent, Suffolk and Norfolk were enjoying bright conditions and 23C while Hampshire was getting dull overcast, intermittent drizzle and high-teens maxima in the past 15 years. Basically it seems like this area (the central south) is no longer favoured for summer weather in the way it was in the 1989-2006, and perhaps 1971-88, periods.
Incidentally I live in that 'grey' area on the central south coast for 2020, so little surprise I perceive that summer as significantly worse than quite a few other contributors. 2021 is also thoroughly 'grey' here though surprisingly 2019 doesn't look so bad.
Some more numbers for you. First a time series of the summer sunshine data since 1919 for the "England S" region as outlined by the Met Office (which encompasses the Midlands, southwest England, East Anglia and southeast of England into the equation too), in a similar vein to the way they do them. There is another dataset for central southern England and SE England that does not consider the Midlands, SW England or East Anglia which could be more relevant to you. Regions and data can be found here. I put the running average as 18 years because of the discussion.
Now the averages for those periods previously mentioned with 1919-1934 (15 years) included too for the sake of it.
2007-2021: 576.3 hours
1989-2006: 610.8 hours
1971-1988: 557.2 hours
1953-1970: 555.6 hours
1935-1952: 575.9 hours
1919-1934: 577.7 hours
So 1989-2006 was by far the sunniest out of any of the periods whilst 1919-1934 was second but only narrowly beating 2007-2021 which also narrowly beats 1935-1952. 1953-1970 and 1971-1988 by far the cloudiest periods.
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Definitely underrated to me to some extent. June 2009 deserves much more credit than it's given. One of the sunniest on record in Ireland, mostly dry with only a few days of downpours giving near or above average rainfall and very warm. I never hear it get any mention for how good it was.
July wasn't good as others have touted but least it had a lot of interest convection wise so I'd take it over other dreadful summer months like July 2020.
August was very wet in the north and west but I escaped a lot of it and came away with a forgettable, ok month.
Seen far worse summers.
If I was photographing, I'd have loved it solely for the noctilucent clouds and volcanic sunsets that weather-history mentions.
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1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:
On the historical stats, it would be interesting to see JJA mean pressure patterns for 2007-21, 1989-2006 (the period of notably good summers), 1971-88, 1953-70 and 1935-52 (all 18 years except 07-21) - to see if the recent dullness of summers, or indeed the brightness of the 89-06 period, has coincided with unusual pressure patterns. Would also be good to see if the pre-1975 period exhibited similar dullness to the period since 2007 - I do know that the 60s summers, excepting 64, 67 and 69, were all varying degrees of poor.
Top left 2007-2021, top right 1989-2006 and the bottom 3 left to right are in reverse chronological order (newest to oldest) to the periods you've named.
2007-2021 features a strong -NAO pattern with well above average pressure over Greenland and Iceland whilst conversely well below average pressure over the North Atlantic into the UK & Ireland. This goes along with the frequency of -NAO summers since 2007 which all bar 2013, 2018 and 2021 featured -NAO conditions more often than +NAO; 2017 was closer to neutral. The 1989-2006 period was completely different with deep low pressure over Greenland and above average pressure through the UK & Ireland into most of Europe.
The other periods have less of a standout pattern but 1971-88 featured a lot of ridging to our west, 1953-70 had a lot of Euro troughing with slightly above average pressure near Greenland but not a strong anomaly whilst 1935-52 was rather unsettled.
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Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
That's the case for much of the country yeah, I do best from easterlies though or even better, northeasterlies which proper ones are silly rare. I rarely get any showers from NW'ly unless they're very blowy and manage to bring the showers across the land to here before they die off.
Issue with February 2021 here was the convection was very shallow. You can see how it was shallow on the reanalysed charts here with a lack of low heights to give instability to the flow. Storm Darcy also killed any chance of convection plus the dull, damp period beforehand meant an intense fall was required to give a decent covering. Didn't have those issues in the 2018 BFTE when it wouldn't stop snowing for like 72 hours and did manage to keep the covering topped to an extent despite the melting due to the time of year. Then Storm Emma stole the show altogether.
Anyway, I guess I would still be ok with 2020-21 if it were to be the case again as it was at least seasonable a fair bit of the time and surely we can't be as "unlucky" (in my preference that is) if we had a re-run with regards to that stubborn Ural high just sitting there for ages and the lack of cold residue over the arctic and continent which was a clear issue here earlier on in the season along with the abnormally warm Siberia.