[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

hopefully we'll see the ppn spikes drop a dryer warmer spring like conditions showing on the 00z 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Weatherman_93 ? 13c max south feeling like 10c in the wind 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Anyway onto the 06z the trend still from the 22nd onward to something colder moisture spikes pretty much still around but should imaging we'll see theses drop away next few days to more of a showery regime.  With the SSW in play and with the UK already in colder conditions it may work to our favour something to watch. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

The trend for something colder still showing on the gefs from the 22nd to 27th five days who knows but at least its still there, i should imaging there will be some towels picked from the floor if this trend continues. What impact the SSW Will have is anyone's guess but interesting to say the least.  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

Cooler conditions still flirting around the 23rd Feb, there is a trend something to watch there is to much faith put in the long range models most of them have shown their true colours this winter.

I'm not ready to chuck anything yet, 10 days is a long time in terms of weather FI To be fair SSW I know doesn't always produce in terms of cold but again given how fickle the UK weather can be nothing is 100% set in stone.     

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

06z shows the road we are taking but there is so much scatter from the 18th i think anything goes, what the long range shows well they haven't been spot on really this winter to be honest.

i think we'll see a pattern change soon.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 BarnetBlizzard Given the statistics for the UK i know where my money is, 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

00z well not much to write home about, cooler from the 11th onward to the 13th then hints of a height raise from the 15th Feb cold rain coastal areas South snow the usual higher elevation the further North you go  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @TillyS   End sequence being the 14th February 16 days out way way out in FI Not really reliable time frame.    

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 

Just one run and the bandwagon is full and playing a familiar tune,  Anyway 00z shows a steady decline to cooler conditions from the 09th onward there are more perts over the colder side than above the 30year mean. 

We all know that signals can change at the drop of a hat granted its not looking spectacular at the minute but there are hints of something closer to average around the 10th  certainly one to watch.  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

06z as per post this morning of a pattern change, some sort of change on its way from the 05th onwards. Control goes off on one but what is interesting is some members are toying with going just under the 30 year mean. A Greenland high quite possibly and a big one at that 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

00z look at the scatter from the 05th from years of studying and learning this model that’s a pattern change coming up which way? Is the question 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Potential emerging at the end of EC 00z

 

 

 

 

Nice warming going on up in Canada possilbe punch through the PV

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

06z shows starting to show a transition  a quick one possibly to a scandi high  28-02Feb could it be a quick one? it as happened before you never know. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Nxt week pretty much set in stone @ mobility.. and unseasonably mild!.. but the question is .. is this the by point for transition to a different outcome!! I’d say so.

Spot on was just about to type that thank you. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

00z shows the climb up then back down to just above average over numerous days,  so not really a theme of continued mild weather ppn spikes dropping lower after the 24th. around the 29th-30th there's a massive spread in the members with the GFS And the Mean coming closer to average temps indictive of a patterrn change possilbe will there are hints of a high pressure set up but the question is will it feel spring like or cold? whatever the outcome at least there is only a few days well one day of heavy rain southwards then its pretty much what we are used to i suppose in the winter. 

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

12 minutes ago, TillyS said:

0z ECM continues the 0z UKMO theme of very mild south-westerlies, with the Iberian / Euro high back in situ:

 

A mild final third to January. The real meteorological story for the UK will be strong winds and flooding, as well as some unseasonably mild temperatures.

At ten days out that's FI The pattern can change over two to three days even by next Wednesday the temps are around the 9c-10c mark not exactly mild considering the wind is from a WSW direction.    

[Moans, ramps and banter]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I hope it will be one worth chasing, unlike the one we have at present which apart from some low nighttime temperatures has been a huge disappointment despite all the hype it got in here.

And this is the factor at times i suppose on any forum, excuse the pun its like a snowball rolling down hill as its going it gets bigger and bigger until everyone can see it and believe it. you have to keep a level head and stay grounded and not become wrapped up in the moment, the last spell in my eye's wasn't going to deliver South due to the lack of moisture winter always favours a North/South split, same could be said in the summer its usually sunny clear sky's here and rain further North. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Pointless even thinking about a chase that far out you have to wait until next month now.

 

??? Nothing not pointless about it, there is quite a lot of evidence not just from the GEFS but other models of something colder towards the end of the month. when i review and look at the GEFS I look for trending in patterns yes granted you may not end up with what its showing but what i find is you end up with pretty much not far off in temp or condition wise with the GEFS.  It picked up on the last cold spell and was showing a trend quite a few days out in the realms of FI. I've stuck to this method for years learning looking and analysing the GEFS and its patterns I'm confidant there's a chase on and will stick to my guns on this of a shift to something colder. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

18z still shows what we are all expecting in terms of the transition from cold to  avenge for this time of the year, but it also shows a dryer period from the 24th with what looks like to be periods of cooler sectors popping in and out at times. But them its all eyes to the end of the month with more member's dropping down past the the 30 year mean to something colder is the chase back on?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12z here we go look at the members towards the end of the month pattern change coming up quite possibly sooner than we think

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

06z still shows the trend for something of a wet day all around for the 22nd then an improvement to some high temps above the 30 year mean,  i can see this dropping temp wise as the days go forward  the GEFS Always over cooks both cold and warmth and then drops them closer to the mean on the dates shown. The moisture spikes also have dropped again  the 29th onward looks interesting there's a signal of all the members in disarray this could herald the next chase looks to me from observing this chart and looking for trends a patterrn change is on the cards    

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

00z still shows the trend for something dryer from the 25th onward the PPN Spikes are diminishing on each run for the period the 21st to the 25th worse day looks to be the 22nd in terms of high levels of rain. there after hints of things settling down, towards the end of the month few members toying with the idea of something colder    

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12z still continues the theme of something dryer from the 24th onwards also PPN spikes dropping on each run at this rate it will look like a short lived unsettled period, where it’s clear at night will deliver frost etc. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

06z shows the trend for something above temp and dryer this run seems to have dropped a day to the 24th from this mornings run which had it at the 25th,  also the ppn spike seem to be dropping when observing the GEFS Its all about the trend in the pattern. it picked up on the current cold spell, there now also seems to be a few members starting to look like dipping below the 30year mean from around 30th of Jan again one to watch. So it looks to be a short lived affair in terms of zonal as some have put, looks like four days then a return to something dryer, if the sky's are clear this will certainly deliver frosty nights.