[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

 No it isn’t. 
it might be the first run you’ve seen, but GFS has been modelling a cold spell for a while now. 

How did that work out just the other day? there is no soiled cross model agreement for any cold spell, perhaps a few days of cooler conditions with intervals of warmer or just close to average weather     

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

?? No it’s not that is not in its usual home 

That's just one run yes? lets see where it is later this evening the purples are building behind it will be a different story later. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

At 168 the UKMO still looks loaded, with the heights heading up through Greenland!! 

The Pv is looking pretty strong there and anchored in its usual winter home. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

 

00Z Showing possibly something colder from the 29th for a few days then something of a climb back up to average or just below the 04th of December, this pattern will change again of course by this evening.   

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

In my twenty odd model watching experience,  if the UKMO model is not on board, then be afraid, very afraid.

It is the best model for handling of Atlantic energy.

Spot on MShadow, its the first run and is being taken as a given it don't really help people who are learning or new to the model watching. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

UKMO a world away from GFS at 168. GFS winter wonderland run is based on a low tracking south under the block. A very rare occurrance these days, i think i know which will end up closer to the mark..

 

The GFS Gets rolled out every year when it shows winter wonder land synoptics Ktom, then there's hype of it only to be brought back down to earth with other models. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

 

18z? will the 00z show the same of what looks like to be cold spells followed by warmer just above average to much disagreement beyond the end of November to even make a firm forecast. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

 

18z shows pretty much of a standard affair going into the next five days, then something colder of late from around the 25th, to the 26th then a spilt in the members PPN spikes building for the spilt on the 27th which would suggest a wind direction change, No signs of a prolonged cold spell or a winter nirvana 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

A lot of purple building to the north seems the PV Is waking from its summer slumber just in time for winter then. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

 

Not seeing much in terms of something dramatically cold, perhaps a Northey toppler, Temps look to be around the same as we seeing now with just a little over at times.  looks to be more of a flat zonal high where we see clear nights may get a touch of ground frost and fog in places, that's about it no 2010 repeat looks likely.  

Best keep the feet firmly on the ground and not get caught up in the hype.

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

00z brings back the trend for something colder from the 03rd of November for a few days, Higher elevations could possibly see snow the further north you go. Seems to be some rain mixed in with theses days but as above snow higher you go. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

12z keeps the temperature around the average mark for the next week, showers  seem to be the outlook. After that it’s just a mess perhaps some sort of change to something colder. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

00Z Still shows a trend to temps close or just below average for the rest of the month, mixed in with this  looks to be showers and heavy at times. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

00z not with out interest, the colder conditions, then what looks to be a slight warm up then back to colder conditions starting to trend. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

18Z Still shows the colder conditions from Saturday out to Wednesday then something warmer teetering on  close to average, the models have been toying with something cooler again after that a trend perhaps? but something more settled and dry looks to be setting up from the 19th.  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

00z still shows the decline in temps to something very wet for Friday the 13th, then the trend for something colder from the 14th-18th which brings a drier interlude after that looks like the temps will go just above average with mixed spells of showers, but that's way out in FI at the minute 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just to add i hate to say this but latest gfs 06z looks the same again as its 00z run so maybe its on to something here!!!!!

If continues to trend with the same output tomorrow I'd say its pretty much the outcome. 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

00z wow the trend is still there for something colder if that comes off what a massive difference in temps and a shock to the system, with the set up especially over the hills would deliver snow. 

talk about different end of a spectrum 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

18z still shows the warmth for the weekend this looks to stay around until the 11th then the trend for something more colder more what we should expect for this time of the year. around the 12th-13th looks like there will be a massive nose dive to cooler weather after that looks like there is wind rain coastal gales further west you go, Cant see the record being broken this weekend the record currently stands are Oct 1985 29.8c and Oct 2011 29.4c cant see that being reached.

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

00z offers this morning the same as the last few days something of a warmer spell followed by a slow descent to something more Octoberish from around the 12th, then from around the 14th its a mess in terms of something set in stone. must likely outcome is temps slightly above average with Rain, Gales in western coasts hello October.    

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep, those two tropical systems.

There's only one left now i think Phillipe which is heading WNW.  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

00Z The warmth of the coming weekend remains in place for many up until around the 09th, then we see a decrease in temps from the 10th onward. the picture looks messy but the GFS And Control will level up with the mean by tomorrow, the trend for something more cooler is still showing and as been for days.  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

06Z shows the warm spell peaking on the 07th-08th of October then a decline in temps as the wind changes direction to a NNW bringing cooler temps from the 11th-13th with some showers chucked in. after that a lot of disagreement it will more than likely hover just above or close to average for this time of year enjoy the warmth this weekend because autumn is to follow. 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC46 looked mainly westerly dominated last night. 

I would imagine Exeter will alter their settled outlook for early Oct soon.

Looks cyclonic with a familiar look of a block towards NW Russia and an active Atlantic hitting the buffers near the UK...

They sort of allude to it yesterday in the 10 day outlook, the track of the hurricane was crucial to the weather for the next week or so. 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

 

Last nights 18z shows the effect of the hurricanes out in the Atlantic the trend on the gefs as been there now for over a week, anyone expecting a warm end with wall to wall sunshine of Sep into Oct should pack the shorts away now. Looks like the Atlantic is waking up to its Autumn rumblings.