Nick2373
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Posts posted by Nick2373
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
Spot on.
The vast majority of us on this thread share a common theme,we remember the magic of snow ,the excitement of it evokes childhood memories usually happy memories so of course it's natural to feel deflated when things appear to be going in the opposite direction to cold and snow.
I've kind of given up on the idea of a cold Xmas after viewing the 00z data, I'm more concerned about post Xmas now!
Nws agree I'd love nothing more than a winter Xmas card outside, cast your mind back to the year before last when the models were showing a winter wonder land for it only to flip at the 48hr mark if my memory serves me right. So sometimes the vast amount of information from across the board can sometimes be incorrect, Not saying the Xmas period is going to be mild or cold but if there was default switch the UK would 8 times out of 10 fall to the mild side of things
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One run and the reapers are out for somethings that's 14 days away? anyway onto the here and now 00z still shows the dry mild period 14th-21st then a cool down with a 50/50 split at the moment but this is in the far reaches of FI. So a break from the rain allowing the UK To dry out, back to the 21st onward there is a pattern change which way it goes is yet to be decided and the seasoned model watchers should know this.
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00z the consistency is remarkable its all about trends and you couldn't get a finer trend to what this as been pumping out the last few days, the 23rd is a long way off in forecasting terms FI If you like. but hopefully we will see this trend next week then we could see some pre Xmas excitement But!! remember its like a roller coaster loads of twists and turns and most importantly keep your arms and legs in the car because to much excitement could lead to disappointment. If i remember it was the year before last when the models were showing a Xmas nirvana only to have it stolen away from us in 24hrs.
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3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
I said this yesterday
while not exactly 99% confident the odds surely are better value than normal
5/2 with BoyleSports
Newcastle5/2 with BoyleSports
Belfast3/1 with Ladbrokes
Leeds/Bradford7/2 with BetVictor
current odds pretty rubbish lol.
18 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
Ties in with this is i suppose.
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As I've been banging on about the last few days the trend still counties with something dryer from the 14th/15th then a dip in temps from the 21st but this is a long way out, but its nice to see a trend for dry conditions still there.
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2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
I gather from the negative responses, that some folks find the prospect of anticyclonic gloom exciting!
Better than constant days of rain and flooding i suppose.
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10 minutes ago, johncam said:
Seas are warmer than normal , would say 9 or 10C, all academic, not what we are looking for.
The sea temp can vary Current temp is 7.2c recorded off Blackpool this morning no definitive set temp
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30 minutes ago, TillyS said:
In terms of something appearing to be seasonal, yes, agreed.
But the problem with an inversion high scenario (‘faux cold’ is my favourite new phrase!) is if they stick around, and around, and around. It’s easy to lose several weeks of winter without anything synoptically meaningful from it. A case of be careful what we wish for?
Anyway, at the moment the runs don’t really support a solid HP stagnating over the UK. Even on the GFS the HP looks mobile (if the GFS 0Z is ‘positive’ then are we grasping at straws a little bit?) and on the ECM it’s both mobile and to the south, keeping the north, and especially the north-west of the UK, mild to very mild. In fact with the kind of airflow in place there could be some high Foehn effect temperatures from that.
There’s such huge zonal mobility to the north of the UK on these runs. No block anywhere to be seen now. And it will continue to push away the hard-won cold pooling over Scandinavia.
We’re only one week into winter so it’s hardly cause for despair. A zonal week ahead though. And maybe more.
Four days at best before a wind direction change bringing more in showers with a temp of around 7c-8c feel winds from NNW quadrant
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4 minutes ago, johncam said:
Yep in these set ups we are cloudy and mild with not a hi t of frost , need the high further north or too much cloud getting drawn over the top.
Wind bearing from the NNW Or NW From around the 14th wont bring the feeling of mild conditions 7-8c max
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8 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Hunting in fi for a clear direction. Where will the high go? This lot don’t give an answer imo so we continue to wait.
The high could push NW It looks good the moment could be sleep walking into something good for the time of the year.
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00z still shows the continue trend to something dryer and more seasonal from the 14th at least it looks to be settled going into the xmas week.
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18z still shows a trend for a high pressure building in from the 14th onward it looks to be a similar cold spell as the last one with temps dipping off towards the end, but don't forget even if temps are higher than average that don't mean its going to be boiling the clear nights will produce frost. The main thing it will be dry for some days and not like this grey rain dross we are having now, 00z looks promising so far with a dominant high starting to build around the uk.
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I'm looking at the period 14th onwards for High Pressure taking over -
Hopefully the 12zs continue that theme,I'm OK with a cold High in the run up to Christmas.
The trend seems to be there at the minute, each run shows some sort of change from the 14th onward when i look at the GEFS I Like to watch the moisture levels flatten sometimes this can be a good indicator of something better than gallons of rain.
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19 minutes ago, Gowon said:
The slight warm up before we go cold again? - They seem to take a nosedive at the end.
Yes its interesting something is stirring i think we will see some good charts in a few days time.
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06z not without interest from the 14th/15th onward, the ppn spikes seem to be demising on each run a suggestion of something dryer and slightly above average temps. At least it will be dryer if this comes to fruition
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The trend continues from the 14th onward for something dryer, close to average temps one to watch.
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00z there looks to be some sort of trend setting up from around the 14th i think we'll see a dryer spell with temps just below or average for the time of the year.
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00z shows the wet period from the 07th to the 11th, then something of a change seems to be there trending from the 13th/14th December that looks to be dryer than what we will see the next week.
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06z looks to be picking up on something more cooler and less settled from around the 14th trend as been there a few times now one to watch.
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18z what a mess after the 06th, its all over the place like swimming through glue there's a pattern change mixed into that from my perspective, and sticking to just trying reading this model over the years, it looks like periods of milder conditions with mix of colder two three day shots.
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8 minutes ago, LRD said:
But even then we saw a cold pattern 1st half of Dec only last year. And what was being progged very rarely looked any better than 2022. So, for some to say that we haven't seen these model developments early in winter since 2010 was hype
Had the same in March this year - a 3 day slushy/wet snow fest and we had predictions of the coldest March since God was a boy
There were a few getting carried away with the suggestion of 2010 why i don't know? it was showing a trend for a return of something of the normal for several days, but folk chose to catch the band wagon and jump on swept away with tales of winter nirvana and promise full of Turkish delights
3 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:Also, last December the models predicted a breakdown to occur 3 days later than the beeb and the beeb adjusted and extended cold spell at the last minute. Models sometimes come up trumps
Not this time I'm afraid. all aboard the Westley choo choo.
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25 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
Sundays LP is much more south on the latest ecm compared to the previous run.and lately they all been correcting them south sooo.could this be a snow event for the south eventually?
The purples are snow, you could have snow on the leading edge but look at the blues, greens, yellows, they are rain
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18z still shows the trend for a cold snap, then the trended return to something just above average South Westley's, no surprise there! but what is surprising is this was showing for days previously but when certain posters where pointing this out they were shot down in flames, personally for me model watching is looking for trends not seeing a cold snap develop and thinking it will extended. if it was going to, the trend would have been there just like 2010.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I don't think model watching is for you then, because the default for the UK is usually mild conditions going into the winter period so I'm afraid there will be quite a few posts that you wont accept.