Everyone seems to have forgotten how hot that first week of august was
Maxes for Heathrow were
1st - 26.5
2nd - 30.4
3rd - 32.6
4th - 29.0
5th - 29.8
6th - 31.0
7th - 31.2
Even more notably it would extend the run of consecutive summer months reaching 33c/90f to 8 starting from June 2018. Perhaps even 9 if it is also reached on the 1st August. Almost certainly not happened before
The only way the hot spell could extend would be for the low to rapidly sink southwards and become cut off but I don't see this as a possibility really.
Yes the last 2 weeks have been poor, but there was heatwave before that. April and May were the sunniest on record and May was the 3rd warmest on record in the south. I think you need a reality check. We are overdue some poor weather
Weird quick is the only three summers to average 25C in both July and August in London: 1976, 1995 and 2019. It was very warm in London. If it had had a little bit more sunshine it would be a solid classic
Big improvement south of the m4 next week - looks really good but elsewhere will have to wait until around the 10th of July. The high looks pretty robust in its ridging and not too reliant on any shortwaves so I think this will come off. I always say that the stronger the high is modelled, the more likely it is to come off.
I actually think the recent augusts since 2003 being historically bad is a myth - it has been consistently just above average. Only 2008,10,14,17 being awful and 2005,13,16,19 being really good
I actually like the look of the GFS 06z I'm expecting something along those lines. With the AAM around neutral as are other background signals the NW/SE split is the favoured option. I'm concerned about Friday though doesn't look hot anymore
output looking slightly worrying for the weekend with lp stuck around high pressure on four sides of It that setup can be very pervasive but still early days
Hmm gradual dings afterwards of a more mobile spell on the means and this is backed up by this met office and BBC forecast being quite bullish about this transition lasting a while. I've also noticed increasing amounts of northern blocking on each GFS run I wonder if this is gonna be forcing a less settled spell