Leo97t

Slightly random question - does anyone know what the lowest 850hpa temperature that 30C has been reached at in the UK? I remember it being reached with around 10C uppers in early July 2018 but I was wondering if any lower has achieved it?

GEFS mean couldn't be more different from 18z to this morning 00z at day 10

Looking very very decent from Sat-tuesday in the SE with sunny spells and thunderstorms. The humidity will make it feel higher than the 22-24C. After that no idea. Saturday/Sunday could see unbroken sunshine in places if the BBC forecast is right and cloud cover is the one thing I rate them for

Despite the poor subtopics this weekend - surface conditions are actually looking really strong partuclary further east - I am looking forward to 24C and sunshine and showers on Sat/Sun

Yeah it hasn't actually been that wet at all but everyday has been damp and grey and depressing. May still go down as a below average rainfall month though in the SE

You're incorrect. The model is different from the UKMO and GFS within 100 hours. Given the UKMO has been far and away the most accurate recently and even the GFS is agreeing with it I find my post apt. The ECM op is not supported by its ensemble. I think its entirely reasonable too dismiss it - and I don't think its fair to dismiss a post you don't agree with in such fashion! I expect the mean has got the Azores high nosing back in around day 9 nailed however - watching the 10 day trend from the met supports this - unsure of how strongly this will occur but finally somewhat of a normal pattern

ECM is different to the UKMO GFS. I wouldn't take it seriously I think its been almost as awful as the gfs recently.

The ECM mean shows what I expect to happen with the Atlantic very slightly waking up to send us into a more normal pattern with a higher than normal jet allowing the Azores to ridge over England

GFS mean is inline with a north westerly and the gefs have been fairly good long term indicator past day 10 recently

the GFS is stunningly good but should be viewed in a just for fun capacity - similar to the NAVGEM

Spoiler : it doesn't

Unless the ukmo comes un board just ignore it

worryingly the net weather forecast is perfectly inline with the BBC - I wonder if they know something we don't

the 06z builds in a high by 99 hours - is it gonna be wrong within this period - absolutely !

Trough is much closer to the UK earlier on. Murphys law rules our weather as usual. I have to say we have been very unlucky in the last few weeks and it doesn't look like our luck is improving

I would say 15c looks a good bet at the moment as the high mins should be enough for it to start moving up from tomorrow.

No one look at the BBC monthly- they seem very confident of unsettled cool weather soon

GFS tries to bring in a southerly - unfortunately that's the coldest airmass atm!!! Still not off the north sea so surface temperatures would be similar to that from a warmer air mass off the North Sea

The second half was actually good but the first half was so disastrously unusually bad that it has a bad rep overall. I don't think we will see a worse June in our lifetimes

2001, 2005, 2019 - all others that have a bad rep deserve it. Not sure any of those have a bad rep but should have better and were all pretty consistent in July and august especially

UKMo is worse in the shorter term

It feels like you don't get average spells of weather anymore it's either way above or below - always above it winter

looks pretty set for 14.5-15.0 already with the consistent but unexceptional mean values expected next 10 days

agreed - today would make my top 10 worst summer days

its largely above average for most of the run in the se - disaster every where else and would likely be one of the coldest Junes on record further west if verified it won't verify though I think any of the models are yet to get close to the final pattern - I suspect UKMO is the closest this morning