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Leo97t

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Everything posted by Leo97t

  1. Leo97t
    They look pretty hot to me I'm not sure what your expecting
  2. Leo97t
    It definitely did overall from my memory 30C was exceeded every day from the 26th to the 11th July but obviously not every day a specific region
  3. Leo97t
    5 days are extremely common Almost every recent summer has had five days or more at at least 30C in total (8 last year IMBY) If you mean in a row its still very common with 1947, 1976, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2017, 2018 all achieving it off the top of my head Some like 1947 1976 1990 2003 2006 had loads of days over 32C consecutively If we are just talking about June its a bit rarer with 1947 1976 2017 2018 off the top of my head
  4. Leo97t
    18z has London reaching 30/31C from Wednesday to Sunday with the Azores reinfocring the settled spell. Perhaps we can expect a July similar to last year which was brilliant in the South
  5. Leo97t
    spoiler : its not an outlier
  6. Leo97t
    it was the 17th last year and it didn't turn out too far off in the actual solution... at least synoptically
  7. Leo97t
    oh god the GEM is unreal it actually breaks the June record - I wonder whether this may be beginning to unfold - still no consistency yet so we should wait for consensus
  8. Leo97t
    GFS showing a proper heatwave lasting 4 days. I think the option of a more intense burst lasting shorter like the UKMo or the longer less hot GFS will be an interesting watch
  9. Leo97t
    I'm surprised the GFS is modelling 31C. That kind of temperature normally requires uppers of around 14-15C unless it has been extremely dry recently which is certainly has not. Perhaps the flow is perfectly oriented from the south which I know can boast temperatures, does anyone have a solid reason?
  10. Leo97t
    don't bother reading them I have been looking through the updates for July from the last few summers and they are all hilariously bad although 2018 not so much. It's pure guesswork
  11. Leo97t
    This has continued to be forecast to rise since the beginning of the month and isn't getting any closer I would think it was a model bias to rise aam
  12. Leo97t
    I'll admit that the GEFS 06z mean is fantastic at day 5-10 but we've seen a very good GEFS mean unsupported by the ECM eventually collapse, I think this evening's ECM is crucial
  13. Leo97t
    I really am not seeing Greenland heights? A brief 1020mb high doesn't constitute northern blocking its gone by the end of the ru n
  14. Leo97t
    All I'm saying is this is still in FI in my opinion. People should not be expecting a heatwave but rather a couple warmer days in the SE - setups like this always correct east and when you get a heatwave appearing on models you normally get perfect synoptic simulated before some small downgrades. I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it yet confidently
  15. Leo97t
    its no doubt turning more settled but doesn't look good in the north as it was a few days ago
  16. Leo97t
    I don't agree its been continually pushed back - looking like a non event across the board on current output - not surprised by lack of comments
  17. Leo97t
    Im really not sold on any particular outcome yet but it think the ECM Mean is along the right lines with a Azores building in temporarily. I really don't see much support for a plume, no model mean has yet to show this and would require the low to dig further south and east which again has yet to be modelled. I would hold off calling any hot weather for next week until at least Friday
  18. Leo97t
    Wow so 18/19 was the first time 35 has been recorded in consecutive years I didn't realise that I wouldn't be surprised to get a third in a row this year
  19. Leo97t
    ICON GFS UKMO now all going for a slower progression of the Azores high to get overhead Edit: GFS not keen on a high at all
  20. Leo97t
    GEM is a stunner - lots of different options rn but none look too bad especially the further SE you are
  21. Leo97t
    There's literally every single possible synoptic pattern I would't give them a second of your time
  22. Leo97t
    I think the GFS Is overplaying the low at day 7. I expect the ECM to be closer on this one
  23. Leo97t
    GFS raws show 27C in London on Tuesday - maybe 29/30 achieved. It would be weird for it to be wrong at this range but it probably will be
  24. Leo97t
    It's not the outlier the Mean supports it. The jet just looks like its becoming very flat. I think that so long as the UKMO is going for the more amplified set up its possible. I think that it will swing to the ECM tomorrow though. Not too bad for the south
  25. Leo97t
    Yes looking at the reanalysis, many days in 2018 reached it with 10-12C. Almost certainly due to the dryness as the wind direction isn't even particularly favourable
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