D KARLSON

Well its taken all day for these very large CB s to push in from the east over cleveland north yorks; started about one o clock and its taken all this time to develop and finally its arrived ;dont forget the longer it takes to arrive the longer it takes to leave ,this mass of very heavy CBs come across from scandinavia starting life as a very cold pool of air minus 20s pushing out from there and crossing the north sea and the temperature contrast could not be greater @ this is more like lake effect snow in the states and certainly the intensity is there. Quite a high risk of thundersnow with these showers and inches of snow look likely rather than; cms think of it like a box of fireworks because these contrasts dont mix well and i would not be surprised to see these big showers lasting until tomorrow ,weather warnings will no doubt be issued as the beeb plays catch up ,though to be fair they did suggest increased showewr activity have fun!!!!!! :lol:

There has been very little snow here in north yorks cleveland with the showers miss and hit ,but i do fancy things will change as some of that colder air crosses the north sea tonight and enhances convection plus as you say convergence will play its part as it always does . The showers did pep up on teeside this morning as colder air pushed in from the north sea and there was several flashes of lightening from cbs so this is likel;y to be repeated tonight i fancy as colder air crosses the north sea again with the contrast between temps at ats maximum as we go into tonight keep your fingers crossed for this one some impressive totals are possible anywhere if the precipitation peps up one to watch !!!!!!

your wish is granted say 5 cms for your area and plenty more after in snow showers

As an example a front that hit teeside north yorks last week was mentioned on the BEEB as to bring a l;iittle drizzle we actually got an inch of snow and there was very little to show on the radar. Its the angle of attack with these fronts with places that jut out into the north sea most favoured eg teeside cleveland north yorks it seems 5 to 10 cm quite possible locally especially cleveland hill yorkshire moors have fun!!!!!!

as some rightly point out there not much point talkin about it when your to busy looking at it !!! As for charts i feel the old fashoned methods are useful here what the synoptics infer are not necessarily what the weather is at ground level , we are in one of those situations, now cold air is entrenched and mild air rides over the top as opposed to pushing the cold air away , in fact it takes several attempts to push heavy and dense cold air at the surface out of the way. I must say im not too surprised at the charts backing away from mild as any mild air that did make its way in ,would have its effects diluted by surface cold. Inference for a few days ahead is difficult best just stick to 2 days , but that said a definite theme is emerging and that is one of outbreaks of snow just about anywhere ,but more especially northern england scotland .but that does not rule out surprise snowfalls in the south with temps marginal and sometimes on the right side of !!! looking further ahead its quite possible the very cold air that stays in situe over scandinavia will make a comeback after xmas. so to sum up a very exciting prospect ahead watch carefully each forecast on the BEEB for snow in your area ,weater radar and temp, i feel theres going to be some fun and games with these synoptics some places could get anther pasting ; enjoy

Re TWS I think the snow coming down the east coast of northeast england on saturday is being underplayed somewhat ,i reckon its quite likely it will start as snow and only fall as rain on the west coast of britain. As for amounts i dont see any reason why 6cms cant fall widely on low ground and even more on hills and its timing as it approaches north yorkshire will be for the evening rush hour and its quite strange how there has been very little mention of it on the BEEB or other sites although i reckon the BEEB will firm up on that this evening. This coming event will probably the best snow event ive seen in 15 years not only that but it will stick and stay over the weekend as for the coming week snow and somewhat less cold air will make a return ,but another cold outbreak from scandinavia seems likely after xmas so hold onto your hats !!!!! theres plenty more fun and games as these lows are now going retrograde on us and backing off to the northwest

On the face of it this less cold air on the charts will play into our hands could well produce an awful lot of snow

Today, less than half the ensembles are breaking the cold spell down completely this side of Christmas. In the meantime a trend towards the December 1981-style low index pattern over the UK with cold air resident at the surface and lows tracking to the south is developing on the models (and this can be remarkably hard to shift). Some of the ensembles even keep the cold airmass hanging around northern districts until the end of the month! ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Very much what i was thinking with any milder synoptics being put back in much the same way in the past that progged cold air or synoptics were put further and further back. As for the synoptics there is a lot of scope for change even just 2 days ahead especially on a local scale and this will prove a nightmare for forecasting snow and amounts and where for that matter , certainly south east england first, with the low diving sou sou west and some places will get a pasting from this 10 to 15 cms easily kent in particular. Second change in synoptics and the north,s turn for snow through friday night,saturday and sunday and the progged wind direction is crucial here, at the moment we have a north ,northwesterly progged which although would bring frontal snow down eastern scotland north east england it would not give showers inbetween, this could make a difference of 10 cms in amounts either way. Any thoughts on this TWS ?????????

One things for sure enjoy every minute of this projected cold spell because the last time we had anything seriously cold was 95 -96. Anyway its fascinating and a sheer treat to watch the charts evolve whats more its free and i feel south east is favoured come the weekend as the cold air from europe will begin to push in, by then say places like Kent as other places may have the precipitation but perhaps not cold enough or marginal; Interesting UK meto have downgraded to sleet with snow on hills in eastern areas but this is conjecture as we will never know really until 24 hours before ,perhaps something of a downgrade in terms of temps but maybe another bite at the cherry by next sunday with another cold shot from the continent

I still think it's too early to claim victory for one model or another- the pattern could still change, given how uncertain the models have been until recently, and bearing in mind how poorly the models traditionally handle easterly incursions. My hunch is that they might actually be toned up slightly, rather than down, as we get nearer the time- my mind goes back to late December 2005 for example when the models were too keen to send high pressure south too quickly. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Its strange to say it ,but as last year the models are more likely to upgrade rather than down these are genune cold synoptics in prevous years you could always rely on a downgrade but further back in the 80s upgrades were common place. As for now its one cold outbreak followed by a second colder outbreak next weekend which should deliver the goods for many eastern counties , with penetrating hard frosts to follow on the back of a northerly. After this it gets very interesting because it does not seem to me that any milder incursions will occur perhaps more less cold at best and by this time europe and russia will be in a deep freeze and that type of cold will prove stubborn to even budge Moscow latest forecast temp for next week is -19 dayime max thats 14degrees below average thats record breaking cold almost and some of the models project a large circulation of lows around the south and east of Europe which would bring this frigid air directly to us 1947 synoptics ??????

ECMF or UKMO for easterlies but too be quite honest you can chuck the models out the window for the time being with councils up and down the country will now be in a state of panic as they will be wanting to know when and where the the snow will occur and as John Holmes has said this will now become a 12 hour 24 hour radar and synoptic watch , snow can and will crop up just about anywhere in theses scenarios which i will find amusing with the councils blaming forecasters and forecasters blaming councils for not interpreting their forecasts correctly . This is quite a serious forecast if the weather is anywhere near as bad as forecast the country will grinding to a halt these synoptics are 80s at best, at worst you could have something that is 1947 style, certainly in terms of snow and lets face it weve been getting away with these mild winters for so long weve become complacent.

Whatever the outcome i think there will many satisfied customers !!!! worst case scenario well i dont think there is one

Indeed the high is nicely sandwiched in and it looks like the energy going underneath the block could make the low to the south a much more vigorous feature in future charts ,so we certainly cant predict the precise nature of the synoptics to come but perhaps more of an easterly at this juncture

i have never known the UKMO be late in all the 4 years ive been on here and yet what a time to be late very fishy indeed come on holmes spill the beans old chap!!!!!!!!!

One does wonder with regards to all the controversy the outputs are causing whether someone is taking the micheal out of all of us ,this situation could be entirely engineered and just like magic you have a very active site with people arguing the pros and cons ,anyway enough of my paranoia . The rational would be to go for a watered down version of the GFS or UKMO ,but as with last winter you can every now and again hit the jackpot when the climate ic in a cooler mode so lets be patient theres no reason why any output cant verify although TWO has gone against METO and suggested it unlikely that the very cold will reach the UK

Well the basics are are set in stone now ,its now more a question of severity of cold ,duration and the amount of snowfall this does have an 80s classic look to it, all the hallmarks are there and no this could not have happened a few years ago but on this occasion the bias is towards it being likely as opposed to unlikely. If this comes off, its going to cause a hell of a lot of disruption even one to tell the grandkids WHY ? You probably would be hard pressed to find a bigger temperature contrast than is forecast in the these synoptics ,this is a rare beast very cold arctic continental air crossing what is still a relatively warm north sea ,very high convection from this and widespread thundersnow giving impressive accumulations. If these charts can continue to be verified then the above remains a possibility if not then a watered down version perhaps , very exciting nonetheless i think the odds have increased now to at least a 60% chance of something fairly severe occuring ,just a case of how the models handel these shortwaves nuff said. just one thing is Steve Murr related to Frank .... call my blufff :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yept still along way to go before we should start getting exited ,as weve all been bitten before and i admit it does take an awful lotof willpower to stop yourself getting carried away ,dont forget theses are crystal balls were looking at not so long ago these types of data did not exist although the BEEB was sometimes able to pick a cold spell from 7 days out. The facts are we can now at the very least expect a cold spell if not prolonged period of cold weather and yes some places will undoubtebly get some of the whiter stuff, the problem with all this comes is when we all expect a day after tomorrow scenario, patience is a virtue as they say and maybe some of us on the eastern side could get a decent accumulation of snow???????? by this weekend we will know for sure !!!!!

As thet say the truth hurts and the very cold scenario has always been the outsider thats not to say it wont happpen ,but if your looking for this ,we need the output verified within the reliable timeframe. just an update on things and the meto outlook was this morning forecasting easterlies followed by a possible breakdown from the south west ,this has been altered to north easterlies with showers turning increasingly wintery in the north and east and this pattern continuing for the forseeable furture. As the above reads thats a classic example of how quickly they change there tune thats not to say it wont change yet again tomorrow,but what can be read from this is the percentage chance of this very cold scenario materialising ,so now for the great Steve Murr and his 30% we could now perhaps increase this chance to 40% and that would be realistic and continue to increase this possibility if the models continue to verify the SAUSAGE CASSEROLE SCENARIO !!!!!!!

still a lot of inconsistency in the models though UKMO and GFS agree i would advise to hang fire on any winterwoderland dreams just yet ,although there is potential from what are quite rare charts these days ,but a lot of firming up is required on any exact outputs. What we really need is some plain good luck to allow a promising situation to actually bare fruit ,tonights charts should help things a little ,what we need is the cold air to become established ,which looks likely to occur and then some milder air to try and push back in and create a battleground with stalling weather fronts ,this is a possibility although we havent seen these situations for many years and perhaps maybe more than a week away from seeing this . Anyway keep a close eye on this and see how it develops

Although the models are stuck in a rut at the mo ,this is not our typical souwesterly pattern as we still have blocking to our east and northeast which is stopping the progress of our low pressure systems and there does seem a lot of uncertainty in the models past the 140 hour mark with regards to how this pressure is displaced or not as the case may be. As always you never really see a proper cold outbreak coming ,but perhaps there may be a bite at the cherry from this current set up as i dont think the models are handling this hgh pressure very well or the atlantic for that matter ,one to keep an eye on this although it may take 2 weeks to resolve or just a break in the atlanitc to allow other factors to play in ,possible cold spell for christmas !!!!!!!!!

It does all seem a bit silly this thread ,dream synoptics which probably average out once a decade or less for that matter and this winter being a dissapointment , we dont live in Canada ours is a maritime climate. This winter has been fascinating and would be described as snowy by any meteorologist and its not all about low cet s, its about it being cold enough for snow ,weve been very fortunate to witness such a winter as this much snow in Britain is rare , when next year produces 95 /96 synoptics ,will people in the south east complain about the constant bitter south easterly wind and complete lack of snow !!!!!

Not to worry most of our snow in the north east is usually from convective showers and today is shower day !!!!! As we go through the morning into the afternoon and evening the showers will intensify and become widespread with whiteout conditions moving in across Teeside and NorthYorks ,there will be accumulations even on low ground with as much as 5 cms possible. Tonight snow showers should become confined to the coast itself but there could still be further accumulations before they retreat towards the coast

I think its safe to say its eastern englands turn for the snow now ,the models are picking up on this slack northerly flow continuing into next week ,so there is plenty of scope for deep snow in some eastern coastal counties by say wednesday !!! get your sledges out and laugh at the souths melting snow :o :o :o