D KARLSON

hopefully as we close in on these forecast cold or very cold synoptics ,we can start to discuss snowfall amounts. As it stands at the moment and this is conjecture, but eastern northern and southern areas could well catch the brunt of disruptive snowfall and it may well be that february saves the best till last. Just glancing at the METO update which will of course change; the idea of a north or northeasterly airflow with fronts attempting to move into southern counties is the idea put forward, obviously reality will be different but this could well turn out to be near the mark. These synoptics if they verify would produce heavy snowfall quite widely certainly eastern areas would suffer from heavy and prolonged snow showers ,but southern counties could see their worst snow in many a year if these projected fronts attempt to move up from the south, as some of our worst and snowiest winters were produced from these types of synoptics ,even something like a taste of a 46 47 style cold spell is not out of the question by any means. I certainly think there will a few happy faces on here in the coming week or so and also the reverse as the country really does grind to a halt as i think we still have not seen the worst that a british winter can throw at us

In deed there still will be hiccups along the wat as this very cold pool of air wobbles its way back across the north sea and as it does so the intense cold returns to eastern germany and eventually western europe. At this moment i would say 70% chance of the cold reurning and this looks likely to rise tonight with the new models as they latch on to the new pattern change and if some of this air is sourced from scandinavia as progged, its likely to be colder than usual; why? well if you take a look at the baltic sea ice service site , you will see that both the gulf of finland and gulf of bothnia are now entirely frozen over and the eastern balic has started to freeze over too .last time this happened was 1987 so were talking serious cold here. This will have to be factored in to any cold air thats arrives at our shores after modification certainly some very snowy weather is a possibility and low minima on the western side of britain of if the models verify

Difficult to say this one but a few cms here and there east of the pennines,the snow is forecst to be light but what may give heavier falls is the persistence and this can be the case with warm fronts

It certainly looks that way ,the idea of the trough of low pressure systems pushing their way across the bristish isles with cold air to the north milder to the south,and of course details and exact modelling of this situation over the coming week is going to be impossible ,so only read modelling for 2 days ahead as things could change drasticly from run to run and exactly where the cold mild boundary will be. I think as we run through next week the first milder weather of the winter will start to push into eastern europe western russia ,but scandinavia will hold onto the cold air and i think as all this happens, it will be the cue for another cold out break for britain ,but i think this time the emphasis will be on snow rather than cold although cold enough anyway certainlt thr possibility of a very snowy end to february ;filldyke;

very poor performance in the models of late and thats to be expected and this continues until a new pattern emerges. Less cold weather overall to come for most, but even then dont be surprised to see northern areas hanging on to some sleet and snow especiaslly Scotland as the residual cold air hangs on here. I dont think the cold air will ever be too far from Scotland and this will contue for the next week ,with cold air perhaps trying to push south again as we approach mid month ,there is still an awful lot on uncertainty in these nodels at the moment so dont rule out some surprise snowfalls here and there

I think if the UKMO went out to 168 it would be similar to the ECMF at 168 but obviously UKMO arent as daft as to predict that far out. If we start with the big picture the deep cold pool over Europe starts pushing east and this meets and this is the important bit ,the very cold pool of air over Russia amd that starts moving west once again ,this will be the trigger or mechanism which will spill the cold air once again to our shores, As is typical in this kind of cold winter cold air is never far away and only ever recedes to come back at a later date. Keep man eye on UKMO tonight it should continue with the theme of cold air returning and if it does were quids in for another cold outbreak ,i would say it looks as good as 60% to 70% at the moment and as i said earlier this is a common theme during cold winters so bias is always toward cold . Another thing to add is; how cold will this possible cold spell be,well theres a fair a chance of it being severe and february does have a habit of this and would not be surprised at all if the cold continued well into March

once again there is low confidence in these model outputs ,hence the dissagreement ,bu that is to be expected in a blocking situation as in the past when these situation occured the bbc would simply say it like it is and not forecast any further ahead than they were certain of , but with the advent of these models the companies are obliged to give a forecast even if they know its likely to be wrong,the truths in there somewhere. at the moment i would not bet against the UKMO at 144 ,but even then they have made mistakes in the past but i think the other models will have to come on board with UKMO or the UKMO does a quick turn around with either solution still possible and still the cold air could come back later in fi. Going on past experiences if ever you see huge forecasting errors it is usually in these blocked situations ,so i would say hang fire and see if the UKMO sticks to its GUNS tonight , and another thing of note is the BBC have never made any mention of easterlies returning at least not yet but thet ar3e obviously keeping a close eye on things without commiting themselves

As there is no undercutting to initiate this now long overdue cold spell, maybe like tha last cold spell we need a small high pressure cell to drift up from the souwest join the main high and help it ridge westwards , this does seem like the most likely scenario at present

Talk about greed ,were like kids in a candy shop weve got synoptics now providing for some areas and were still looking ahead for bigger and better,that said that low that comes from the northwest on tuesday could well provide some heavy falls of snow as it hit s the cold air on the eastern side. as for tonights models ,i think perhaps the models might converge a little and come to a more of a conclusion as regards any cold outbreak from the east ,i think the UKMO will backtrack and come in line more with the GEM but thats just a good guess ,but ceretainly expect changes in tonights models as is the case in these situations there can be quite sudden turn arounds as the cold and mild does battle

I suppose its not a question of if ,but when and how the next cold outbreak returns what one must not forget is not to take the models as gospel they are inference and only suggest possible outcomes; and not that any particular model or outcome will be the victor. Its a case of looking at them and reading between the lines or isobars ;dont forget people were worried about us getting dry south easterlies ,now the models are suggesting other outcomes non of the outcomes are actual they are only real when you get to the day forecasted itself and then you will find the charts forecasted are rarely the same as what actually occurs. so lets have a look ,after looking at the charts over the last couple of days ,there has always been the suggestion of the British isles being on the edge of the cold pool ,with no proper push from the east ,well at least not in the short term,so the charts today merely reflect this again with UKMO 144 and this low coming in on tuesday could possibly play a part at least a small part in how the cold spell prgresses ,because there does seem to be some scope for errors here eg ;how deep and how it interacts as it moves through the north sea. Strange thing is i prefer it this way ,with the models in flux its just more fun !!!!!!!!

I think its nailed on that next week, this pool of intense cold air will spill westwards ,but i suppose the big questions are orientation of the high and whether there is any undercutting of the jet to the south. At this point its impossible to say, but you can have an educated guess and to my eyes this looks to be perhaps a unique set up with p[ressure up to 1060 mbs thats rare in itself and the intensity of the cold advected would be something weve not seen since the 80s so surprises are in store and the cold could well set up some small troughs or lows as cold hits the north sea or channel for that matter .

[quote There is the possibility of some heavy snowfall for some areas this com,ing weekend and into nextweek ,the problem is where ,although it does seem like western and eastern areas will receive snowfall at times as the wind veers between points n,westerly and n,easterly so each day starting friday will be different as the wind alternates . As we go into next week, shallow lows drift down towards eastern england keeping the northerly flow going but also bringing the chance of the heaviest snowfall to the south and east with showers becoming heavy and prolonged ,but the proximity of the lows will determine whether this occurs but there remains some serious potential for disruption should these charts verify. Beyond this it seems to me ,that there wont be any overiding force eg we will be left in some kind of slack northerly or northeasterly flow until other factors take control ,but there seems to be a possibility of some very snowy weather as opposed to the intense cold from the east as the two meet in the middle

I would say there is more uncertainty here than from our usual northerlies ,as we have areas of low pressure moving south down the north sea much as we did last year. Anywhere could get surprise snowfalls from this and the northerly could end up being a nne easterly or nn westerly ,there is too much scope for change as these areas of low pressure dumbell around each other. Certainly exciting as once again we are being spoilt rotten here and i must admit i was sick of seeing snow here in yorks ,but very quickly ive got my cravings back and its all conjecture at the mo perhaps wednesday will give a better insight as for after that further cold spells are always likely as the siberian high throws further ridges out.

Just picked up the BEEBs forecast and they are now going for the easterly with snow showers and temps of zero and below by next wednesday daytime that is ,all fun anyway im sure youd agree

True!!!! Antway METO have now jumped on the band wagon and has gone for another cold outbreak after next wednesday certainly alot more in store this winter. Have not bothered posting for almost a year now ,but now seems like a good time as there does seem to be some potential in the synoptics for shall we say some locally heavy falls of snow , especially for southeastern england and even some southern coastal counties could get in on the action. OVERVIEW ; As we go into sunday night the wind swings to the east and we start to pick up wintry showers particularly eastern scotland north east england ,at this time any settling snow should be confined to hills ,but this should descend to low ground by morning. MONDAY ;By this time all eastern areas will be affected by these showers and they should move a good way in land ,how heavy and how wintry seems to be the big question mark and hence this post, there does seem to be potential for development of some heavier snow moving in as this very cold air is tapped into across eastern germany ;-13 Berlin; this cold air is sucked in and crosses the north sea and could well develop some mesoscale features with the contrast in sea air temps very high. There certainly seems some potential in my view although the beeb wont bother to mention any potentially heavier snow showers till closer to the time ,but this is one to keep an eye on and the kink in the isobars that cosses the south east on monday could be the catalyst for some heavy snow !!!!!

Very much my thinking at the current time and dont be looking to the models too much as they are trying to bring in a new pattern which should occur at months end , but its how the process occurs and low confidence in the models will continue until the new pattern starts to realise,l I must admit its absolutely fascinating, watching how our models handle this old fashioned winter and for anyone new on here you can learn an awful lot from watching the models predictions and what actuallly unfolds. at the moment it certainly looks like the cold will return in the short term then a possible mild blip as the pattern tesets and then a cold outbreak from the north this time but this is conjecture although a good punt nonthe less ,obviously the devils in the detail and surprises a plenty

you cant rule out anything at the mo ,with very low confidence in the models past 120 hours and that can even reduce as the atlantic attempts to push in against what is near record breaking cold over east Europe and the baltic states; and the Baltic sea is responding as it starts to freeze over for the first time since 95 96 if im right. the thing is whatever synoptics are brougth in they are simply overlayed over what is now a frigid continent /cue wife joke/ So if you can imagine the cold air cannot be simply pushed out of the way and even if it does it reaserts itself as the cold groud interacts with the atmosphere and encourages high pressure to reform ,what you have now is climate as opposed to weather. I th8ink as regardes further ahead towards the end of the month the ECM does a plausable guess with some resetting of patterns and a northerly over Europe and the idea of the high evenually migrating north or north west certainly interesting times and we really are being spoilt so make the most of it !!!!!!! As far as i can see cold air will return to these shores at some point whether directly from the continent or through a resetting of the pattern as trhe ECM points out

Your right about that and certainly a few surprises in store as the models try to factor a normal blocking sc enario against this once in 30 year block and it is that rare; temps over russia scandinavia and most of europe have not budged for weeks locked in a deep freeze and that cold air simply cant be dislodged by the atlantic. some fun a games to come with this and its more fun when the so called proffessionals cant nail it

There is low confidence in the model outputs at the moment and i cant see that changing in the near future as long as that stubborn high stays to the northeast and if you add these high pressure cells moving up from the souwest to join the main high the situation is likely to remain protracted with neither the cold or the mild winning out, with the chance of some very cold air returnig from the continent before the months out

Thats a fair assesment but even then we still cant be certain of the actual outcome , i think i pointed out the other day of this idea of the trough running north south and high pressure remaining to the east ,this does seem plausable as it does not appear that the high to our east will give ground anytime soon. Also worth noting is the high cells forming and merging with the main high over russia this is one veriable that will be very hard to predict and could throw a spanner in the works ,above all it does seem like we will be stuck in nomans land with cold incursions clipping the east and returning polar maritime air getting into the northwest at times. As for further snowfall thats certainly on the cards and a few surprise snowfalls as the BEEB like to call it and quite a lot of chopping and changing from the models as they will really struggle with the details

Im with you on that one ,there are many details to be resolved as the atlantic tries to push in and of course still the outside chance that the cold high could push back in albeit temporarily. What perhaps looks like the more probable long term outcome ,would be the lows shunting up against the high to our east and forming a north south trough over britain which would preclude any really mild spell and then perhaps bringing a cool northwesterly although this is pure conjecture at this time. I think the problems with the synoptics currently forecast is how the atmosphere is going to interact with the very cold surface temps over europe , this will be very difficult to factor into the models as high prssure will always want to reform over this very cold landmass ,certainly wil l be amusing to see what happens !!!!!

[ In fact even well before then, in spite of AO and NAO showing strong signs of both going +ve it’s a far from clear picture. The remainder of the official winter period, from this week on, to me, seems pretty finely balanced, some pointers to less cold taking over but some pointing to much greater uncertainty with the possibility of deeper cold returning before this month is out. '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' The details of any change at the mo will be hard to pin down and a few surprises along the line are likely in my opinion ,but the main key to any changes is how the energy trying to push in from the west interacts with this very cold and long established cold pool over europe. Indications on the cold returning from the east at some point will always be on the cards as the cold air is only likely to be pushed around rather than cleared out the way almost like a boxing match ,how this will pan out is purely conjecture. Going by previous cold winters will perhaps help understand how this one will go but dteails will always be different but if you were a BETTING man you would at best get even odds on cold returning !!!!!!

Heavy snow now moving in here in stocton on tees after the wind picked up five minutes ago as you would imagine the wind has sruggled to bring these showers onshore but now we do have a breeze and presto the showers arriv further heavy falls cannot be ruled out certainly for north yorkshire in my neck of the woods will keep you updated on wether this snow persists here !!!!!!!