Portsmouth Sun
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Posts posted by Portsmouth Sun
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2 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:
Came in for a quick check in and first post was ecm at day 10.....
Although it's not all bad or good its day 10....AGAIN!
Can I set an alert once we are inside that?
Onwards!
Good luck!!
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46 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:
The issue is, people start taking a computer generated forecast as gospel at +T200. At no point this winter have we got one single cold chart that's likely to produce either snow at the surface or go on to produce a cold spell that's sufficient enough for snow. Again, some pretty charts appeared at the day 10 range and the carrot is nibbled. The reality is, things change too much in our atmosphere for even the most expensive computers to live with, what is at day 10 this evening will end up being nothing like the chart the verifies.
Chilly, but not cold is the most likely outcome for Christmas and into the New Year.
There's no strong enough, long lasting ridge in the Atlantic modelled anywhere near a realistic timeframe to be calling anything other than average weather. It's clear tonight that there's another pattern around the corner for the Christmas-New Year period, cold or mild is up for debate. But you won't nail that down for another 4-5 days yet.
Bang on, thank you for such a truthful honest post
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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Think we should be a bit careful about calling it a cold spell as it stands temperatures look to become more seasonal I suppose it is normal for the cold to be muted given the range we’re taking about, nonetheless a significant cold spell is unlikely this month. The air could be colder than what we had early this month... which would increase snow risk but currently there’s not much to suggest this colder weather has much bite or longevity to it.
Thank you, finally a reality check.
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Just now, dragan said:
I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks....
Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at he latest runs.
Unfortunately lots on here do not like reading the truth and believe a D10 when its showing cold. Reality is a lot different.
The run up to Christmas looks like a standard mild cloudy/rainy spell with winds from a milder direction.
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4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
No real signs of significant cold. Don’t know why some are so disappointed, because apart from useless day 10 charts, there never was!
Unfortunately lots on here treat a D10 as gospel, i've no idea why. For what it's worth the next few days remain cold (cold heavy rain in Portsmouth now) with a slight warming into next week, before it's all up in the air as no model has a proper grip on things and change at the drop of a hat.
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3 hours ago, Dean E said:
34.2°C at 5.10pm was the high today. Second warmest on record for my station and only 0.2°C off that record!
NE winds really do deliver for my location and the last 2 days are no exception. Incredible setup!
Sea breezes are expected here again tomorrow and for the rest of the week, cannot wait!
Every summer it is so frustrating, why don’t TV forecasts predict the highest temperatures along the south coast when a NE or E breeze, both BBC and ITV are useless.
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I wouldn't be confident at all saying next weekend will be fresh and unsettled. The hot air never really looks like shifting and Thursday could be the 8th day in a row of 30c plus. A few more tweeks in the models and Friday could see another 30c.
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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:
Model charts for England (Max. temperature, 3h/6h) | UKMO (6 days)
WEATHER.USUKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 08/11/2020, 01:00pm of parameter "Max. temperature, 3h/6h", model chart for map...
Ukmo showing 35C raw max for Tuesday - it *only* had 34C for Friday.
It's all variations around the same them I guess - localised conditions will make the difference between 34C and 36C as a max each day.
Well, as predicted hottest temperatures were east of the IOW today. The latest upgrade shows highs approaching 36c come Tuesday in some areas.
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Must be all the tarmac and aircraft at Kew Gardens that is responsible
I wonder what temperature it and Heathrow would have recorded this year if it wasn't for Covid and lack of flights.
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6 minutes ago, OddSpot said:
Nice sunset from Southampton just now
Red sky at night.... Looking good for tomorrow on the coast.
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11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
I’m thinking that Monday could possibly be the hottest day in this period. Flow from a continent that will have been roasted for several days. Does, as others have said, depend of cloud / convection.
With a baked continent and a languid flow off the continent, albeit with a NE gentle flow, a cloudless sky in Hampshire, Sussex or Kent could really produce the goods. Homegrown thunderstorms may very well be an issue further inland, but the synoptics looks good for the SE coast.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I think you need to read back through the posts in here...
Not at all. Cloud from the channel was always going to scupper maxes in the Dorset area, obvious from early this morning.
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Well, after only making an OCD-like 29.9°C here and then an 8°C drop in temp after that, I shall be peeved if it happens again!
You just have to accept these things happen in your locale and be pragmatic, this is the UK weather after all.
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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
No way that’s right. 26c over London? BBC and met going 33-36c.
Of course it is not right, all other models that are more highly regarded are no where near this solution.
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With winds swinging N/NE the south coast looks primed for some nice temperatures this weekend, especially if tomorrow is a dry day.
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The next week looks exceptional down south, days upon day of plus 30c. Looking at the models Saturday could be hotter than Friday and Tuesday/Wednesday hotter still.
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Lots of people eating humble pie come the weekend, either the Met Office and ITV weather or the experts on here. For what it's worth i'm going for hot and increasingly humid in the south. The potential for some big storms come early/mid next week. Overall some decent summer weather to be had. The UKMO holding firm and the GFS randomly giving out various signals just to wind some people up on here.
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Lots of petulance and childish mood swings on here now. Hopefully peoples comments will improve in a while. The south, especially with an easterly will be very pleasant regardless.
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
I feel like I’m the only person who loves both freezing cold, snowy winters and boiling hot, thundery summers. Love and really interested in the extremes. Love the stats and figures behind it all.
Certainly not the only one. The weather is all about extremes. Shame the people who wrote off summer so smugly last month haven’t explained what went so wrong for them. The 7 days from Thursday look very interesting, could we see another 37c? I’m not so sure, but it looks very pleasant down south.
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I just don't get why people jump on one set of charts and boast like it's gospel. Even without all the histrionics on here the SE looks like getting a few decent days of heat and sun.
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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk
These are temperatures for the SE not Yorkshire where even yesterday it was not that hot. For what it’s worth looking at the charts a settled very warm few days beckon within the next week. Yesterday temperatures soared, albeit briefly in the SE, but come Friday the models seem to indicate places further west could come up trumps with 35c plus temps.
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The lack of any humidity makes it feel great today, gentle breeze and 30c in north Portsmouth. Yet again the TV weather forecasts predicted much lower temperatures for coastal areas, when will they ever learn?
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After a minor blip this week, summer would appear to return next week, the models are in general agreement. So much for all the doom and gloom merchants writing off summer.
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10 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:
564 dam in the north of Scotland..now there’s something you don’t / won’t see very often!!..what a week we have ahead of us..
A good week for the south, backed up by the Countryfile weekly weather. Nothing but average further north, backed up by the models. I guess usual summer weather resumes for the UK.
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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Unfortunately the hyperbolic nonsense spouted about D10 charts that never verify get in the way of some informative posts. Looking ahead at what is developing is a cooling down from the NW around Christmas Day. What follows could very well be a screaming northerly as shown in unreliable timeframe charts or a return to something milder from the Atlantic. A computer is never going to predict what mother nature has in store.