Earthshine

Pub run never fails to disappoint!

I'd expect most of these coming from satellite radiances/radio occultation sounding, etc? Lower atmosphere particularly difficult since multipath/SNR becomes large in the lowest few kilometres. I'd any model output to be dominated by the background in these regions due to the low density of observations in this region as you said.

Watch this plummet by the weekend. A few model runs have this dropping below 1°C by mid-month .

Great, thanks!

Anyone able to layman term this?

Met Office going for -10°C at Exeter Airport next week...

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1598778487753609221?t=zx1cp1-U5BjFdeEVIQ9DZw&s=19

Milder cluster though. Greenland block getting adjusted westward

This has always been a strong possibility. Tentative signs ECM could be picking up on an emerging signal but of course, as always, more runs needed!

Even more stark is the maximum CET record. We'd need a December with a maximum CET of around 7°C below normal (so essentially the MAX mean temperature for the month is around ~0°C). Even December didn't get that cold, with the maximum CET a comparatively balmy 2.4°C

I sometimes get confused with these. Shouldn't the units for that plot be decametres? I read that and get the impression that the height difference between the 1000 mbar and the 500 mbar pressure levels is only around 500 metres!

Sending hugs and wishes for a speedy recovery!

Anything to back that opinion up? The Tona eruption injected an enormous amount of water vapour into the stratosphere, increasing the total mass of water vapour in the stratosphere by an unprecedented 10%. That's globally too and will surely have impacts here.

GFS ensembles are rather uninspiring. Cold, windy and grey.

Unfortunately, we won't know until we are within the 48-72 hour timeframe (and even then it can be incredibly marginal). Thankfully few are showing deep cold, which would be very concerning in terms of heating costs.

Need a December 2010 (~-5C below average) to avoid record warmest, -45C to beat coldest year on record

Interesting looking back at this thread, well done to those who guessed that August would break the trend of the last many years!

Also a big injection of water vapour into the stratosphere due to the Tonga eruption. Supposedly stratospheric cooling/surface warming.

Afternoon everyone, I must admit despite being a summer lover I think some of the excitement for a pattern change on this thread is starting to rub off on me! A switch to a drier and calmer pattern will be a welcome change here after already having 160mm of rain this month (I'm fed up of being damp and miserable every day!). The signal is certainly there for a drier and higher-pressure regime, perhaps we might even see some homegrown cold if the high settles over the UK?

4.4°C please

I agree, although I think 2022 is very close to 2018 due to the exceptional August heat we had here. 34°C+ is exceptionally rare at home in South Wales and the gin blue skies were incredible. This August was even better due to the lack of good August's in recent years (although the 2020s already have 2/3 decent Augusts).

January CET: 3.6°C. Cool and unsettled month with frequent northerly/northwesterly incursions. Turning milder towards the end. February CET: 6.4°C. Very mild and wet. A real grim month. March CET: 6.8°C. Average temperatures and rainfall. Very warm end with temperatures 20°C+ April CET: 10.5°C. Warm and dry. Cut off low forms to the southwest bringing warm and humid air by end of the month bringing new highest minimum temperature record. May CET: 12.7°C. Warm start with many places seeing 25°C+. Cooler mid month before a significant warm spell in the last week. June CET: 17.2°C. The first 17°C+ CET month since 1976 with an exceptional spell of sunshine and heat in the first half. Later turns unsettled but very hot and humid with 36°C recorded. July CET: 18.4°C. Hot but changeable with frequent thunderstorms. Cooling down later in the month. August CET: 18.3°C. Average but cloudy first half. Heat returns for the second half with a locked in hot spell resulting in a CET for the last 10 days of the month reaching 20°C. September CET: 17.6°C. An extraordinarily warm month and absolutely smashing the previous all time record. October CET: 12.5°C. Very warm start but cooling off dramatically by the end of the month. November CET: 5.4°C. A significantly colder month with snowfall even to the south. Warming up later in the month. December CET: 6.5°C. A mild and stormy month.

If it can hold until we get the energy crisis out of the way that would be fantastic!

I think we'll see a 17°C+ June this decade.

November CET continues the run of obscene maximum CET anomalies this year. The rest of this year needs to be -3.14°C below average to miss the record. With yet more fiendishly warm temperatures into next week that required anomaly will probably creep closer to -4°C (i.e. we would need a seriously memorable December to miss the record).