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The4Seasons

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Everything posted by The4Seasons

  1. The4Seasons
    The position of the slider can change even hours before it arrives. Dec 2017 slider was never 100% accurate until 24 hours before the event.
  2. The4Seasons
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/what-met-office-says-new-15600961.amp A very interesting article - the met office thinks the beast may return
  3. The4Seasons
    The stratosphere looks like it is going to get fried ☺. Signs of change on later model frames starting to show in the GFS 00z. Obviously far out but a step in the right direction for us coldies. Interesting times ahead.
  4. The4Seasons
    Maybe a dusting of snow on the pier only then from that chart lol
  5. The4Seasons
    Hugely disappointing this morning gfs and ecm. I had a feeling downgrades were coming - US east cold is never good if it gets into the Atlantic so it fires up low pressures. The utility industry/ highways weather updates I guess seem more accurate atm. I plan around them and all we had was a low risk of cold in the weekly update yesterday. Hopefully a turnaround will come.
  6. The4Seasons
    Ecm goes on Exeters outlook.
  7. The4Seasons
    The position of that low will change for sure. It's a strong block. It would take a lot of energy to displace it.
  8. The4Seasons
    Winter is coming . Can you spot the shape of the person on tonight's precipitation Gfs pub run.
  9. The4Seasons
    For the mild thread
  10. The4Seasons
    Does anyone have the snow depth charts for these latest runs?
  11. The4Seasons
    Tbh I would take any long range outlook with a pinch of salt at the moment. The met office the other day were saying it would turn colder with frost and fog. That is yet to happen. Then there could be snow showers and colder in the east and North. That has now changed to this. Their updates changes as often as the ECM and GFS models lol. Weather is hard to predict that far ahead:-). A cold spell could come out of the blue anytime. All we can do is watch and wait
  12. The4Seasons
    I get the feeling that the signs on the models are now starting to reflect a hint much colder weather for December - probably starting around the 4-7th region. Much more positive on the long runs. I think we could see some big developments in the next few days. Heights certainly showing signs of building towards Scandinavia and note how quick the lows are collapsing as they head towards the newly developing block area. It is only a matter of time before we feel the winter party
  13. The4Seasons
    That Liberian anticyclone is being the nuisance here stopping the other low pressure systems to move east South of us. Note how it pulls up. That needs to sod off lol.
  14. The4Seasons
    Ok the Gfs 12z might have been a little disappointing at the end there however this will change. It is too far to make a call that this will be the set up in the future. Plenty more exciting runs will appear no doubt soon. The waiting game continues.....
  15. The4Seasons
    The Gfs 12z chart does seem to reflect and be in line with the met office outlook. That temp lull then a return to cold.
  16. The4Seasons
    Looking at the models over the last several weeks you can clearly see the Atlantic is waking up. I think any very warm spells from now on will be fleeting events of between 1 - 3 days or so. Definitely the tell tail signs are there that a change is starting to happen. 1 or 2 more warm spells wouldn't go a miss before the autumn properly sets in.
  17. The4Seasons
    27.1 here
  18. The4Seasons
    My Spanish friend in Cordoba has just said 51c (124F) is the expected extreme high due this weekend near the Spanish border with Portugal. It's already about 40c there in the city today. Last year I was in Spain when it hit 44c and it was incredibly hot. I can't imagine what 50c would be like especially in that sunshine. Ouch.
  19. The4Seasons
    It hasn't been a good storm season here in south Wales so far this summer but something might be brewing in the Celtic Sea. Fingers crossed.
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