Optimus Prime

Remember what we were saying about March? The month had only one week until ending and the CET was around 2.9c. But some much warmer weather came about from the 24th. Warm spell from the 24th-31st was enough to rise the CET by 2c when we were looking at one of the coldest Marche's ever. All it would take is a cool spell to end June and the CET could quite easily drop by 1.5c-2.0c during the remaining 7 days. Don't be too complaisant yet.

We will adapt to a changing climate, in the future. 30,000 people died in the heat wave of summer 2003, evidence to suggest a hotter summer will be disastrous. Where I work, at Tesco, we've had quite a few people feeling dizzy due to the very warm weather lately and a few that have fainted. Just goes to show, while you may be able to withstand hot weather and warmer climate, many people can't and I doubt you will be able too when it gets here.

Most of us are white and as a result are best adapted to a cool climate. There is no way we would cope with a hotter summer and warmer winter. We would adapt in the long term as peoples skin changes to a darker colour. That's after hundreds of thousands, possibly millions have died due to extreme heat.

Looks like there is more snow cover then what there was in 1979.

Hotter summers would be the final downwall for the economy. It would kill thousands and year, African born diseases would creep into Europe due to warmer summers and much warmer winters. We need frost and snow to kill off trpical diseases. "Further more solar power could well be the main power of the future as sunshine and brightness increase." That's complete ballocks, a warmer climate would not make the sun shine brighter, a warmer climate may increase sunshine ammounts but on the other hand could reduce sunshine ammounts in one way or another. I warmer climate wouldn't be good for the UK, it would be a disaster. Yes there are some good points to a warm climate but also some bad points.

Errr..no. 1c above average is officially in the 'Above average category'. You're not trying to twist these definitions again are you? Metoffice have released their monthly summery. England and Wales temperatures were a little above average but about average across Scotland. While slightly above average across Northern ireland. England and Wales; "A wet month, especially across East Anglia and parts of Wales where over twice the average rainfall was recorded in some places. Notably warm at times during the first half of the month, but much cooler during the closing days with some overnight ground frost. Some significant thunderstorms, especially in the south on the 10th. Windy with coastal gales early in the second half of the month." "England & Wales Mean Temperature Series (series began in 1914). The provisional mean value for the month is 11.7 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the above average category." Scotland; Cool and unsettled apart from warm spell early in month. Scotland Mean Temperature Series (series began in 1914). The provisional value for the month was 8.9 °C, which is 0.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the close to average category. Northern Ireland; A warm second week - otherwise often rather cool and wet - notably so in the third week. Northern Ireland Mean Temperature Series (series began in 1914). The provisional value for the month was 10.4 °C, which is 0.8 °C above the 1961-1990 average, which is in the above average category. http://www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/2006/may.html

Can't remember my predicting for November, it was in the 6's I think. I was nearly spot on Predicting 4.4c for December (actual was 4.3c) way off with Januarys at predicting 2.5c (actual was 4.3c) I came quite close to February by predicting 3.1c (actual is 3.7c) nearly spot on with Marches by predicting 5.1c (actual 4.9c) incredibly close for April when I predicted 8.4c (actual is 8.5c) But I didn't manage 2 in a row I don't think. But 3/5 that came very close isn't too bad IMO.

9.6c for me.

Quite extraodinary sea surface chart;

I'll go for 14.2c, average temperatures but wet.

Only 3 percent of total land area in the world is covered by urbanisation. That occupies around 3 billion people. Although 25% of the world land area has been used by humans for Agriculture, roads, houses, ect. Urbanisation could cover as much as 6-10% of the worlds land surface in 100 years.

We wouldn't loose our atlantic influence, we would just loose an active Atlantic. Hotter summers, probably, colder winters, possibly.

Going by the curent GFS run the CET will end up at 11.9c by the 31st. Or 0.5c above average which will place it in the 'Close to average' category and will make it the warmest May since 2004. Seeing as the first half was to warm, that's pretty remarkable that it may only end up 0.5-1.0c above average.

Looking at the charts now it looks like around 12.0c looks likely. That's only 0.6c above average. In my view would rank it, slightly above average. Considering the remarkable warmth we've had up until the last few days, that's equally as notable as the offset in March.

The bbc know it all don't they?

By the end of the month I think it'll be one of the wettest ever recorded. But a CET looks likely to end up around 12.6c in my opinion, on the official metoffice figure.

I noticed this for March; Local variations. Also, it wasn't just Britain that experienced a colder than average winter, Germany had it's coldest winter ever, Korea and Japan both saw exceptional cold and snowfalls and as did Russia. Russia had one of the most severe cold snaps ever. Even Europe's cold spell came close in severity to that off January 1987. Warm and cold areas are still localised with many areas having a severe winter while others having a warm one. I certainly agree that global warming probably took some of the severiuty out of the cold snap across Europe and added the warmth to the mild weather across America.

Going by the current gfs run, from the 1st May - 30th the CET would end up at 11.6c. 0.3c above average. Due to a cold end with mean temperatures around 10.1c or 1.8c below average for the second half.

Oh, no! Not another load of overhyped media reaction please Looking at this link; http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ice-seaice.shtml Looks as if the ice sheet is shifting in a different direction as down the coast of Greenland (?) the ice extent is much greater then that of September 2002. I think you like making a mountain out of a mole hill, WIB. These changes are nothing new, it's happened before. Just like ice has extended, ice will shrink. Just like we had very cool winters in the 40's and 60's, we will have very mild ones are we all ready are. This is global warming, but not the media hype as we know it, it's naturally contained. Looks very ordinary to me.

Well, things have changed. Just look at the northern hemisphere ice; That's about, 300,000 sq miles below average! And that's in comparison to recent averages. Something must be melting all that ice, and it ain't cold air B) At this time of the year it's usually night time minima that causes extreme rise in the CET. Average maxima is around 17c now. So 27c is only 10c above average. Yet minima should be around 6c right now, if temperatures were not to get below 19c at night (like last year) that would make it 13c above average.

I certainly think a CET over 13.0c at this stage is odds on. Any hot spell for Spain we get now will be hotter than anything we have experienced so far this May. Potentially since August last year. The end of May last year was a very good example. Very hot last few days with temperatures around 30c. 1st week of May this year was 2.2c above average 2nd week? probably 2.4c above average 3rd week? Guess around 1.8c above average 4th week? Guess around 3.0c above average That would mean May this year would end up at 13.8c. Or 2.4c above average (rounded up to the neared ten) That would be the hottest since 1848 and the 5th hottest ever. Probbaly won't go that way but if it does the period from January-May would have a combined CET of 7.0c. Or 0.4c above average. A step closer to another yearly CET above or equal to 10.5?

At this stage it does look like May, may well end up one of the warmest ever. I should think 13.5c+ would be a good estimate. So, perhaps the below average November, December, February and March is all we're going to get?

Well, if; 1st week had an average CET 2.2c above average 2nd week had an average CET 2.4c above average 3rd week had a CET 2.0c above average 4th week had an average CET 1.3c below average That would overall equal a May CET 1.9c above average. That's presuming we have sustained very warm weeks but a colder end. If the last week however had a CET 2.0c below average however, it would be sufficient enough to make the month only 1.1c above average. That cold end scenario is possible and would mean the month would only come out at 12.5c or 1.1c above average, still quite a bit above average but not anything out of the ordinary.

I was joking. Trust me, I am enjoying this warmth! Also enjoying hayfever that comes with it.

True. I found this quite interesting; "Max 21.4°C at Gravesend (Kent), [also at Clerkenwell, London] - first 20+ max of the year, and the latest date to cross this threshold since 1983" So 20c+ has never been unusual for the start of May? Even at the end of April. What a crap heatwave this has turned out to be. Calculating the 4th-10th the average came out at 11.3c according to the GFS latest run. That would make it about 0.6c above normal....not exactly breaking records is it?