Optimus Prime

According to the latest run the first half of April would come out with a CET off only 4.98c! That's 3.12c below average and would be bordering record low levels for the first half of April For Scotland it would be an average off at just 3.1c which is 2.4c below average.

It came out at 3.8c. That's average.

As long as we don't get a hot summer and very warm autumn it's now certain we won't manage the warmest year on record. It seems we've been breaching the warmest year on record title for some time now. Has to be said though, a few hundred years ago 10c was unheard off and would occur every so often (about once every thirty years) and even the high 9's were pretty rare. Generally the average yearly temperature were between the high 8's and low 9's. With even a few 7's in there. We haven't had a yearly CET at 7.0c or below for well over a hundred years. 1740 was the coldest year on record with a CET of 6.84 it contained a very severe winter and the only month above average was September. It was rare in those days so it would be nearly impossible these days to get a sub 7.0c year CET. But this year so far has been interesting, January was just 0.1c above average and February was 0.4c below average. But we still haven't received a well below average month yet (Monthly CET atleast 2.0c below average) and the last time we had one of those was May 1996. Back on topic, if April gets a CET below average that would be noteworthy, even in old standards and it's quite possible looking at the latest charts.

It would be certain that we would eventually come across a couple of cold months. These warm/cool periods come and go. I don't think the climate has warmed up to such a degree that we won't get cold months. We still have the same problem though. The warm spells seem to be a little bit warmer then what they would have been 50-100 years ago. It's obvious that it has something to do with the globe warming up but it's quite worrying. First 3 week of March were exceptionally cold yet 6 days of warm weather has been sufficient enough to rise it by 1.6c. Meteorologically the earth has been warming up since around the start of the 20th century for then to be a slight cool down from the 40's-69. Ever since, while since the start of the 20th century it's been warming up (the 60's was a modern cool era) and then started to slightly cool down during the early 80's for then escalated warmth during the 90's (exceptions being 91,92,93 and 96) Ever since the start of the new millennium the warming trend has been incredible. But this year could be different, it's quite a bit like 1996 just a little bit milder. Unfortuanetly a few cool months proves very little just like it would if they were warm months from a cooling period. We had loads of them during the 90's and a few so far this century. But the overall warming trend continues.

I will be astonished if we get a warmer then average summer. In my opinion it's going to be very cool and wet. Temperatures at least a degree below average. Coolest since 1988 I reckon. It's not often we get cool summers.

Going by todays run, the April CET would come out at 3.15c by the 14th. That would be a whopping 4.95c below average. I don't think any April has ever been that cold for the start of the month during the last 105 years (although 1917 would had been close)

I think my prediction is slightly too high. But the general theme is for these people; Paul Carfoot - 5.5 14.8 Thundersquall - 5.5 14.8 Optimus Prime - 5.1 10.7 Shuggee - 4.9 8.6 Snowmaiden - 4.8 7.6 Summer Blizzard - 4.8 7.6 Helly Hanson - 4.6 5.5 To do remarkably well. Helly Hanson may be slightly too low while Summer Blizzard and Snowmaiden may well take March's CET winner. But everyone listed above did very well. Remember though, Hadley/Metoffice figure nearly always deviates from the third party predictions. It's usually 0.2c higher then Philip Eden. So when Philips may show 4.7c by the end of the month, it's more likely to come out at 4.9c. In which case Shuggee will win.

Or perhaps not... Last night was considerably cooler then of late. Got down to 6.4c here due to clearing skies but with a fairly strong wind. Maximum temperature today 13.4c. Only a couple degrees above average. The CET hasn't risen today. Metcheck still have it at 4.2c. 2.1c below average. The next few nights do look cool in comparison. The CET looks to come out at 4.8c by the end of the month.

I'm not a fan of these SST's. They change so suddenly and without warning and they also hardly ever correlate to what is supposed to happen when they are showing warm/cold. A Northern Jet allowing pressure to build to the south would give us a hot summer?

Yep, you're right. January; 4.3c February; 3.8c March; 4.6c Overall; 4.23 (0.67c below average) So now, by 0.3c it's the coldest first 3 months since 1996. Only if March comes out at 4.6c. 9.5c looks like the average for the remaining days. The CET will end up at 4.7c according to that run...it's going to be extremely close whether we get the first 3 months to be the coldest since 1996.

Well the way it's going we're certain to have the coldest first 3 months of the year since 2001. 2001; January; 3.2c (-1.0c) February; 4.4c (+0.2c) March; 5.2c (-1.1c) Total; 4.26c (-0.64c) 2006; January; 4.6c (+0.4c) February; 3.8c (-0.4c) March; 4.6c? (-1.7c) Total; 4.33c (-0.57c) Different being the winter of 2000/2001 was fairly average in Southern England but cold and snowy in Scotland (it was an extended winter there) For 2006 to have the coldest first 4 months since 1996 it would need April to come out with a CET of 7.0c or less. For it to be the coldest month before 1986 April would need a CET of around 0.5c. It's strange, we get 3 weeks of unusually cold weather for then to have a week of warm (but not exessively so) weather for the CET to then rise to only below average levels.

Cold Aprils have never really occured that often. I think this April will continue the warm trend but I don't think it'll be that warm overall. I'm going to guess 8.4c, 0.3c above average.

There have been hundreds of months in the CET series where it's starting remarkably cold then the warmer end has been sufficient enough to rise it above average. Obviously March 2005 being a good example. But the best example I can remember would be June 1975. It started off incredibly cold where there was widespread outbreaks of light snowfall over high ground in parts of England and sleet at lower levels. There were also widespread maximum temperatures of 2c across lowland Britain and minima down to -6c. It then warmed up from the 7th with some warmer temperatures (although hardly hot) until the 27th when it turned cold again with more frosts and extremely low temperatures which lasted until the end of month. Despite the spells of unusual cold the warmer period was to such an extent the CET ended up as 14.7c (0.6c above average) It's certain the CET will not reach 6.0c, it would need record breaking heat for it to achieve that. It will however reach the high 4.0's for a time but there are indications of it turning much colder again next week with the retirn of light frosts so it could well drop away slightly towards the end of the month.

Today has seen the CET rise fairly rapidly; Climate-uk.com has the CET at 3.3c now. That's a rise of 0.3c in one day! It's still 3.0c below average though Metcheck still have it at 3.0c...3.3c below average net-weather temperature tracker has it at 3.31c which is 2.99c below average Mine is at 4.0c which is 2.3c below average By the looks of it Philips one will easily reach 4.0c by the 28th and probbaly continue to rise. Probably close to 4.5c by the end of the month Metcheck finishing of around 4.3c Net-weather around 4.6c Mine will probably reach 5.4c which is fairly cool for southern england

I'm not a fan of the idea that CO2 increasing warmth in the earth (but it does help) I'm more of a fan of the idea that when you clear rainforests you're releasing ancient Carbon Dioxide that is stored and by building huge cities your releasing warmth and pollution into the atmosphere.

My stats so far this month; 1st-20th MAX; 6.86c (1.14c below average) MIN; 0.33c (3.67c below average) The first 6 days of March had a MIN temperature average of -3.41c!! (7.41c below average) while maxima was just 2.14c below average.

If the current GFS is anything to go by 4.1c would be far too low. My calculation would be nearer to 5.2 and would..ahem...make my 5.1c estimate looks exceedingly good.

Looking at he latest charts, even 4.0c might be too high. I've heard several times on the bbc weather forecast lately where the forecaster has been saying how unusually cold it's been this year for March (Philip Avery said it yesterday) I reckon anything above 3.8c is odds against at the moment. It all depends whether that cold across North Scotland can spill its way southwards, if it stays mild over England and Wales I would say the mid to high 4.0c. It's almost certain to be at least 1c below the 1971-2000 average. If it does end up at 4.0c it would be fairly hard for this years CET to be equal or warmer then the last 8 years. We would already be the coldest first 3 months of the year since 1996. For this to be the coldest start to the year since 1987 March would need to have a CET of 2.6c or less. While unlikely it isn't very unlikely.

I did some calculating with the current charts from MAX/MIN, doesn't seem right to me, I came out with a CET of 3.2c by the end of the month which is 2.5c below the 1961-1990 average and 3.1c below the 1971-2000 average. That seems a little low to me. That would make it the second coldest since 1892.

I think it's likely to get as high as 4.6 simply because there doesn't look to be any very cold nights to knock of the warmer days. Even though daytime temperatures look to stay slightly below average. Be intertesting to see the Scotland temperature by the end of the month. They could get the coldest March up there for a long time. It won't beat 1947 up there though, March 1947 was the coldest March of the 20th Century in Scotland with an average of 0.2c.

If we went by your solutions we would be coughing on soot. I'd prefer to have cleanish air then have a slight possibility of cooling the winters down. Do you know how many people died in smogs of London and other cities around the world because of chimney pollution? And you're point of cooling the earth down by emitting huge ammounts of toxic pollution into the atmosphere is not only foolish but has no baseline for proof. There are millions of reasons why the earths warming up, some we know and some we don't know.

You've obviously calculated that wrong. That would need daytime maxima around 12c and minima around 6c we won't be getting that for a few days yet. Maxima around 8c and minima around 1c, that equals 4.5c. Next week there will be a few days with maxima around 6c and minima around -1c so that would give a 24 hour CET of 2.5c. Due to tnhe cold spell being downgraded somewhat I expect the final CET to come out at 3.9c. There doesn't look to be any real warm spells until the start of April.

There's a few leafs poking through the soil where the sun has been directly hitting the earth but other then that, they haven't had their head poking through. There’re suually out by the start of March.

Well I won't be doing anymore CET calculation until the models have plotted the scenario out. One minute it's 2.6c and the next it's 4.0c. Either way I think a colder or much colder then average month is almost certain. Anything below and not including 3.2c and that would make it the coldest month so far this century which just explians how generalyl mild the months have been. If we get anything below 3c it would be truely remarkable.

Going by the current GFS run (06Z) the CET will come up at 2.65c by the 31st. That would make it the coldest since 1883.