Optimus Prime

I keep thinking this Global Warming thing is one big hype to tax the crap out of us, I don't know why. These organisations don't release all the truth. It's fact the UK/World has gone through remarkable warming before. And we're hardly going thourgh remarkable warming. Also these scientists say the earth has never been so warm before. How can they say when it's based of hundreds of years? Even thousands of years isn't long enough. These people aren't scientists, their opinionators. This graph posted here not so long ago explains a great deal;

I agree Westerly Gales to a degree but the cold spell forecast for this week and the potential for a real plunge of cold air from the North/North east it would easily send the CET below 3c by the 26th which is when it's expected to get warmer. In fact there is a chance that I could be below 2c by the 27th. At that stage it would take a real heat wave to get it above 4.0c. A rise of 2c in 4 days is literally unheard off. It's felt very warm today despite temperatures around 8c which is still 2c below normal. temperatures tonight will get as low as -2c. 8 plus -2 divided by 2 equals 3.0c. So actually the 24 hour mean is still below the reading by the net-weather tracker of 3.05 so it's likely to drop to 3.02 by tomorrow morning. Minima potentially as low as -4 during the northerly spell and maxima of 5c. That averages just 0.5c! Watch that CET drop like a stone once we get real cold nights. And heat waves rarely occur in March. 25c+ is considered hot and I don't think that's ever been recorded at this time of the year. 20c doesn't happen that often. I expect the Minima to be around 4c below average by the end of the month I expect Maxima to be around 2c below average. So IMO either 2.8c or 3.3c looks favourable as the final CET.

I would presume Hadley. I think Philip would know the answer to that. In my opinion I don't think they were that accurate. They used generally inaccurate thermometers and apparently they may had been recorded inside houses (obviously people never had Central heating then) I can't say I trust any of the figures before the 1920's roughly as I bet they were fiddled about with and rounded up to the neared decimal place or the Thermometer placed to close to snow cover when it snowed and consequently lowed the readings due to the snow emitting a radiation of cold surface air. I would say my readings are an awful lot more accurate then them of the olden days but that's my opinion.

Going by the GFS run the CET will end up at 3.3c by the 31st. That would make it the coldest since 1962 and the second coldest in 105 years. Or the 27th coldest March since 1667.

But you know how strict the BBC/Metoffice are at giving away 'below average' months. According to the BBC/Metoffice the average temperature for England & Wales is 5.7c because they are still using the 61-90 average. It would need to get down to 4.7c to get it in the 'below average category' or 4.4c for it to be in the 'well below average category'. While I can see it being a cold month, to the BBC/Metoffice old average it'll most likely place itself in the 'near average category'. Last time we had a well below average month was October 2003!! Nearly 3 years ago.

Amazing that I was actually going to put down 4.1c but I thought that simply isn't possible in today’s rather warmer climate. If daytime temperatures peak at 5.0c and night time drop to -2c that, although may nore sound particularly low that would still make a 24 hour CET of 1.5c! It really doesn't take a lot to continue to bring the CET downwards. Climate-uk currently has the CET at 2.6c which is 3.7c below average. It's likely to end up at 2.7c by the 15th. If my calculations are correct the CET will end up at 2.1c by the 20th according to the GFS run. 2.1c is 4.2c below average. If we ended up with a CET of 4.1c that would place it in the 12th coldest March in 106 years.

That's very narrow minded. It's all down to the patterns. If we get blocking to our east and very little NAO activity the liklihood of it turning milder are a lot less. Which is why I went for a March CET of 5.1c. 'These days' you mean? Recent years? We've had good blocking in recent years. December 2001. January 1997, February 1996 and December 1995. February 1994, January 1992 and February 1991. All those months were colder-than-average. This month and the winter period has seen phenomonel blocking. But not always in the right place. But it will be next week!

I wouldn't base a winter containing average temperatures (or veyr mild for Scotland) an end to the "even larger teapot". If we were talking about this in 1995/1996 with the record low set in December 1995 and the snow storm in February 1996 I bet we would all be saying goodbye to the mild winters. An interesting winter synoptically. Most surprising are the very low maxima since mid November but on the other side the CET for December was only a little below average, January was slightly mild and February was slightly cold for England and Wales. I wouldn't be surprised if next winter was warm and wet like many of them since 1988. We will always get winters that are close to average or even cold with some good snowfalls like in December, February and March this winter but it doesn't mean it's the end of the "even larger teapot". I wouldn't be surprised if next winter was mild again.

"Coldest first ten days of March (CET anomaly -2.8 degC) since 1987" http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

I think you'll find 9 years of mild Marches doesn't have any preservable influence on the Marches that follow. 9 years is such a short space of time it's not even worth taking into account. yes, if it was 50 or 60 years of continual exceptionally warm Marches it may have a slight influence on the next March and even that's open to criticism. It will take an incredible and sustained warm spell to pop it up to average. If by mid-month the CET is around the 3c mark it would need to double what we've had, cancel out the very cold first half and go against the grain because it gets harder and harder for the CET to rise when it's at a very low level the further we go into the month. A cold spell of some sort looks very likely after the snow potential over the weekend. After a slightly milder interlude the cold weather will return. March 1996 had a CET of 4.5c That's 1.8c below average. I would say it will be touch and go whether we end up lower then that. If we get at least 5 days of cold/very cold 24 hour means it would be near impossible to get an average March. Unless we get a record breaking heatwave. Put into context the first 7 days had a CET according to my data (that generally over does the temperature) the first 7 days had an average of 0.9c. Saying for the next 2 weeks had a CET of 6.0c (average) that would mean the CET would stand at 4.5c by the 21st. IF the last 7 days had a CET average that of July (16.5) it would end up at only at 7.5c.

Despite this warm period the CET remains exceptionally below average; Climate-uk has it at 2.5c which is 3.8c below average Metcheck have the CET at 2.8c which is 3.5c below average Net-weather temperature tracker has it at 3.0c which is 3.3c below average The weather outlook has it at 2.09c which is 4.21c below average OPT has it at 3.5c which is 2.8c below the national average So despite several days now of temperatures well above average it hasn't made a huge mark on the averages. It would take a fair while of very mild temperatures to bring the CET even near average. If anything, by the 15th the CET is likely to drop below what they're at now or at the very least stay the same. So half way through the month and we're still at least 3.0c below average.

Which I decided to work out. Here's the results; December 1900-2000; 4.66c. At the start of the century there were warm Decembers mixed with quite cold one's. Lately Decembers have generally evened out a bit. Warmest December 1934 with a CET of 8.1c and coldest 1981 with a CET of 0.3c. 1981 was the only year that contained a December below 1.0c. January 1900-2000; 3.93c. There were no very cold Januarys (CET below 1.0c) until 1940. Januarys upto 1940 were mixed with quite mild and quite cool. Apart from the record warm 1916, warm 1921 and 1932 there weren't many very mild one's. Lately Januarys have almost been entirely mild but you do however have to go back 96 years until you get a warm January (CET above 7.0c). Warmest January on record being 1916 (CET 7.5c) and coldest 1963 (CET -2.1c) February 1900-2000; 4.69c. Loads of very warm Februarys upto 1940...1903 (CET 7.1c) 1914 (CET 6.8c) 1918 (CET 6.5c) 1920 (CET 6.0c) 1926 (CET 6.8c) and many more mild ones with the CET between 5.0c and 5.9c. It was 17 years at the start of the century until a very cold one was recorded (1917 0.9c) also 1929 (0.4c) 1942 (0.1c) Lately February have been remarkably mild with 2002 (CET 7.0c) 1998 (7.3c) 1990 (7.3c) last time we had a very cold February were 1986 (CET -1.1c) and was also the second coldest February of the 20th Century and coldest month since 1963. So winter compared to the 1900-2000 average was; December; 4.3c (0.36c below average) January; 4.6c (0.67c above average) February; 3.6c (1.09c below average) Average winter for the 1900-2000 average (4.42c) Winter 2005/2006 in comparison (4.16c) So that's 0.26c below average.

It's a hell of a lot colder then even March last year at the current time; http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/200603.htm Metcheck currently have the CET at -0.4c which is 6.7c below average Net-weather temperature tracker is at -0.25 which is 6.55c below average The weather outlook has it at -0.7c which is 7.0c below average So all of the major unofficial CETs are exceptionally below average. I can also see it rising exceptionally fast next week.

I also find that interesting. Except this time around Scotland has had record snowfall at lower levels for March. Aberdeen recorded 26cm of snow, that's a massive 10 inches! Beating all the March snowy spells since 1957 when records began! In Scotland with temperatures dropping to -17c it was colder there then in Moscow and Oslo! It's only a matter of time IMO until we get a severe winter. While the climate is warming up, it isn't warming up that much!

We haven't had any real widespread mildness since early November. Maximum temperatures here from Late November-March have been around 11c. I don't ever remember a period that long without achieving at least 14c. Any mildness we have had has been shortlived which is reflected by the southwest CET in being consistently below average since November while England has been consistently slightly below/slightly above. We won't see double figures for South east England until at least the 8th. How long the milder spell lasts for is anyone's guess but I can't see it hanging around for too long. This could be a start of a cooling trend. Or this could be mild 1996 style blip.

I think March s 2005 started around 4c below average. But quickly started to rise after the first 3 or 4 days. We're around 6.6c below the 1971-2000 average and 6.0c below the 1961-1990 average. The CET is likely to start rising by around the 6th. It won't take a lot of above average day and nights to rise to near average levels. I would say around 4 days of daytime temperatures around 13c and night time temperatures around 6c so we need colder conditions to return quickly if we are to keep the CET below average. Tonight looks to be the coldest night so far this cold spell. Or at least for Southern England with temperatures dropping to around -6c.

That'll make it the warmest ever, and by some way! Only March 1938 and 1957 have ever had a CET at 9.0c or higher. Both after quite a cool period of Marches.

Well so far my CET predictions have been alright but not that impressive; December; 4.2c Actual; 4.4c January; 2.6c Actual; 4.3c February; 3.1c Actual;???? (probably 3.9c) As for March, well past Marches have seen runaway warming beyond unprecedented levels. Here are the stats from 1990; 1990; 8.3c (2.0c above the recent average) 1991; 7.9c (1.6c above the recent average) 1992; 7.5c (1.2c above the recent average) 1993; 6.7c (0.4c above the recent average) 1994; 7.7c (1.4c above the recent average) 1995; 5.6c (0.7c below recent average) 1996; 4.5c (1.8c below recent average) 1997; 8.4c (2.1c above recent average) 1998; 7.9c (1.6c above recent average) 1999; 7.4c (1.1c above recent average) 2000; 7.6 (1.3c above recent average) 2001; 5.2c (1.1c below recent average) 2002; 7.6c (1.3c above recent average) 2003; 7.5c (1.2c aboverecent average) 2004; 6.6c (0.3c above recent average) 2005; 7.0c (0.7c above recent average) The 1971-2000 average is 6.3c. But look how warm the 1990-2005 average is ...7.56c. That's 1.26c above the 1971-2000 average. March 2004 was considered cold by many, and you can see why! In my view March this year will be remembered for frequent cold outbreaks with some snow mixed with warmer weather (although nothing too warm that I can see) My CET predictions is for 5.1c. 1.2c below average. Coldest since 1996.

Fairly heavy snow. Cold, 1.6c and 0.3c ground temperature.

White stuff is falling here. Not sticking because it's too wet. Reminds me of thelight snowfall of January 1997. Temperatures at 1.0c. Fell to 0.8c when the snow started falling quite some time ago.

Overnight in March 2004, it snowed fairly heavy most of the evening and night but produced only 3cm. I think some areas in March 2005 had some remarkable falls of snow.

The fact we haven't seen any sustained very cold days since November combined with some rather mild nights has meant, overall therefore temperatures have been about the longterm average rather then distinctly below average. To me, it's been a very average winter. Very little very mild but at the same time very little very mildness. Somewhere in-between.

Cold. Maximam temperature yesterday was 1.9c. Today it's just 0.7c. 0.5c at the moment. Very cloudy and damp. Average CET here for the last 24 hours is -0.25c

Cloudy. -1.3c. Dropped from +0.4c a few hours ago. No frost though

Have a look at this table for some very lot maxis indeed (at 3:00 today) http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk...est_obs.html#ec Even parts of the south west are struggling at 0c. While one place is recording 8c! Adiham is the coldest place in England with a maximum of -1c. And Redhill at 0c. Heathrow at just 1c. Much colder in the Midlands. With only a few areas at or 1c above freezing. Shawbury is at just -2c! Currently dropped to +1.2c here.