Aleman

Well, it looks to be snowing all over and to low levels inland. The snow front looks like it is now dropping on NE Manchester and the northern Peak District if radar is correct, which it largely seems to have been. It's even snowing a little in Northern Norfolk now. I wonder how far south it will get before it fizzles out. There's a clear couple of hours behind the front where temperatures look to drop back below freezing and then the showers have started coming ashore behind that. Like further north, these look to be starting to organise into rather rough streamers. So some will get further snow soon and some won't.

Turned to sloppy snow now and settling and freezing immediately on colder surfaces - e.g. paths and cars but not salted roads. I'm only at 25m.

Front edge just passed through York and it's sleet to begin with. The temperature has risen from -0.4C to +1.0C. This suggests rain for Leeds but snow for Bradford, Halifax, Huddersfield and Sheffield where it's a little higher and currently about 2C colder. It could easily turn to snow here if it just drops 0.5C.

The back end of that cluster is the wind veering NE that I was talking about and it looks like streamers might be intitiating over the Borders and Northumberland. They would carry snow a little further from the coast as tey work down so snow for the Dales and West Yorkshire looks possible overnight, besides all the rest of the Northeast. I also note its about 3C colder than this time yesterday evening and we got to -2.5C here, so that's plenty of cold to go at.

Wind is turning. It's already veered NE in Scotland and snow is getting further inland in the Borders to central areas. It looks to be working its way down so it looks like most places in Yorkshire have a chance of snow, given the temperatures. For anyone looking in from elsewhere, it's only 2.2C @ 25m alt. here in the Vale of York after a 2.7C high and I'm staring at a white garage roof still and there's ice in buckets. The breeze is numbing and the central heating is taking forever to get going. And then you go to the model output thread and some folk are still arguing its too warm to snow when radar shows it's been snowing over the North Sea off Hull!

First road closure of the season and a pic of snow at Scarbados. North Yorkshire road closure as drivers warned of snow and ice WWW.BBC.CO.UK Snow fell in parts of North Yorkshire overnight, with several weather warnings now in place.

I'm curious why Baltic Sea ice is not being picked up on some models. It started early and, though not progressing rapidly since, remains higher than average. Similarly, some sea ice did not seem to get picked up from the early start to freezing in Hudson Bay, though that's done nothing for weeks so is now behind normal. (See interactive graphs at bottom.) The cold in the Baltic and Hudson Bay recovering to normal might help figures over the next week. Ice conditions - Finnish Meteorological Institute EN.ILMATIETEENLAITOS.FI Today´s ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea ice chart as pdf and simplified charts. Ice report and an ice extent graph.

Radar continues to show all the very light showers crossing the North York Moors turning to sleet or snow almost immediately they come ashore (though it does not discriminate between snow, hail, graupel, or anything else you can think of).

I've got -3.1C in N. Ireland, which might not be a new low, then new lows at : Wales - Sennybridge -6.0C England - South Bristol -7.9C Scotland - Roberton -8.5C Sennybridge is a Met station and the other two are not. (Met station lows for England and Scotland are Shap's -7.7C and Eskdalemuir's -6.9C.)

We have new lows for 3 home nations : Wales -5.6C Sennybridge England -6.7C South of Bristol Scotland -8.0C Roberton Might yet edge lower but winds are swinging to SW and downward trends have turned erratic. There are odd pockets that are nearly as cold further east that might keep dopping, though.

Already below -2C in several places just south of the M4, plus a few further north in western England. The lowest I can see is -2.8C just south of Bristol. At this rate, the previous -4.1C English low at Shap is going to be comfortably beaten and Altnaharra's UK low of -7.1C from a week ago could be under threat.

Shap had -4.1C on the 17th of October. I think this is still the lowest minimum of the season for England?

Radar showing snow on the moors north of Ripon and north of Pickering. Anyone seen any?

Snow comes in waves and forecasts suggest extent might jump again in the next few days but some might just view that as noise. The general extent trend had been looking pretty average this year , after a few higher years, while mass is tracking a little above average but that is no dramatic change from some recent higher years. One might argue it's slightly up on average or slightly down on recent years or not particularly going anywhere until we get more data. Take your pick. (I recall similar from Rutger's Laboratories that snow extent was rising in Autumn, not doing a lot in Winter, but falling in Spring - over a 40+ year period. Again, you take your pick until we get another decade or two into the data to make one look more probably than the others.)

Altnaharra actually bottomed out at -7.1C sometime after 6 am, so that's the new seasonal low to run with.

Minimum Temperature Last 24h 11/10/2023 at 09:00 UTC No.LocationStation IDAmount 1 Altnaharra (United Kingdom)03044 -6.3°C 2 Tulloch Bridge (United Kingdom)03047 -5.7°C 3 Cairngorm (United Kingdom)03065 -5.1°C 4 Loch Glascarnoch (United Kingdom)03031 -4.7°C 5 Aviemore (United Kingdom)03063 -4.5°C 6 Aonach Mor (United Kingdom)03041 -3.9°C 7 Aboyne (United Kingdom)03080 -3.5°C 8 Strathallan (United Kingdom)03144 -3.3°C 9 Drumalbin (United Kingdom)03155 -2.8°C 10 Aberdeen / Dyce (United Kingdom)03091 -2.7°C 11 Cairnwell (United Kingdom)03072 -2.5°C 12 Lossiemouth (United Kingdom)03068 -2.5°C 13 Kinloss (United Kingdom)03066 -2.4°C 14 Tain Range (United Kingdom)03062 -1.5°C 15 Prestwick Rnas (United Kingdom)03136 -1.4°C Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet Northern England also had it chilly. I've seen a -0.2C in the Yorkshire Wolds and -0.7C in the Yorkshire Dales.

Heavy snow and -15C temperatures saw a slightly early start to ice formation on Hudson Bays west coast but it has since melted back as snow eased and central water temperatures of about 2C are not cold enough yet for significant advance. As the cold front moved eastwards and ongoing snow intensified a bit , freeze up even started in southern Hudson Bay as speculated might occur a couple of days ago. This is a week or two early but I expect this could all melt out again as snow moves away and daytime temperatures rise back above freezing and water temperature in the south remain a balmy 5C away from the coast.

Heavy snow kicks off a good start for Hudson Bay. I think this is a couple of days earlier than typical and recent colder weather looks set to be sustained in Canada if not the USA.

Heavy snow is predicted every day this week down the West Coast of Hudson Bay, with temperatures down to -15C in the northwest. Hudson Bay usually starts to freeze up at the start of November and looks likely to get off to a good start this year. Even Fort Albany in the south is predicted to get a few days of heavy snow and temperatures down to -10C. The Freeze up there is usually nearer mid-month but this might be enough for an early start.

A large increase through Wrangel Island has now been seen in The Alaska Sea Ice Program series, too. (Possibly same data sources.) Interestingly (but of negligible value to overall Artic ice totals) are tiny new formations in Anchorage Bay and the Alaskan Peninsula just as it extends out to the Aleutian Islands. You might have to try a few different maps and zoom in a lot to see anything. NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP) WWW.WEATHER.GOV

I speculated previously with MIA about a rapid refreeze in certain areas: i. where sea temperatures remained oddly low after most models had shown ice had melted and should have mixed in. ii. where DMI was still showing ice while most others were not (particularly in an arm stretched out to and through Wrangel Island). iii. where climatereanalyser was showing strange temporary "shadowy" ice patterns forming away from the main pack, seemingly after heavy snowfalls (suggesting either the sea was already on the verge of refreezing or had never actually fully melted and mixed in, leaving lots of colder slushy freshwater atop the warmer denser brine). The rapid refreeze, particularly along an arm through Wrangel Island, suggests there is something in one or all of these. (And not at all ruling out any of MIA's comments about temperatures drops with central high pressure, etc. - these being in addition.) It raises points to consider (for the layperson?) about the different algorithms used for detecting sea ice. They use different cut-offs of 5-20% and different smoothing of 1-3 days, perhaps more. I've read about such in the past but forgotten most of it, and they might have changed. When one model says there is ice and another does not, it does not mean one is wrong or right, they are just measuring slightly different things, and this needs to be understood. It's probably most highlighted when one occasionally sees a patch of ice disappear and reappear a few days later. The wind or tide dispersed it and congregated it again (or similar). Did the ice disappear? Probably not - but each algorithm interprets that in its own unique way. It's not as black and white as it appears on the pretty coloured maps!

Snow forecasts have not delivered as well as one might hope recently but this run to month-end in North America looks promising.

Similar can be seen here:

Shap did squeeze out a new low of -4.1C somewhere around 4am. Tulloch Bridge was -4.6C. That might be the lowest for Scotland under 1000 feet?