Windysun1

I posted the below on the 4th. At the time it was in La La Land and i guess in weather terms the 20th is still considered a fair distance out for accurate fore casting. My point is on this evenings output this sort of evolution is again been picked up by GFS. GFS is known to have a good handle on Highs evolution and positioning (usually). Hopfully it has this one roughly inline with latest outputs. Certainly keeps everyones intersts in the game : )

Are you PV forecast?

A Dickens winter indeed..maybe throw in a frost fair. Silly hour now good night folks.

I dont think anyone would be interested. Bit marginal! ; ) La la land but be nice if it got support. Although would not be far off some back ground signals. See what the morning brings. Just noticed those..those high pressure reading are extroardinary. Interesting.

An SSW directly over the noth pole is now plausible. Would certainly throw the cat amonst the pigeons!

Yep it cant sustain that pressure..it will go bang but where the pieces end up is the key. Surely this time on our doorstep!

Guys, i think we are well overdue a Dickens type Christmas and Winter to come : ) background signals are excellant ( Canadian warming helping to curb a usually vigorous jet stream and possible SSW earlier in the Season akin to 2018 but more in the heart of Winter) giving loads of opportunities for cold to severe cold injections and possibly lengthy spells at that. The only thing is potential doesnt always deliver, but this year positives out weigh the negatives by at least 3 to 1 i would think.

The canadian warming itself does not have great impact on the SPV ie displacment or split. What hopfully it will do is reduce the jet winds (as temperature gradient will not be as great) and rapid development of storms battering into the Uk. This would allow more favourable conditions for high pressure blocking to develope. That is my take on it anyhow. SPV displacement and split is more likely from pressure been put on the SPV in the Urals. Obviously alot more to it than that but thats how i see it. All in all i see a very cold stretch developing either mid December or the week just before Xmas (fingers crossed)

i would'nt give up hope for January;) phases 8-1 in early January too...all speculation but certainly positive.

They would have been my thoughts. The cold pool is still building.

Welcome back Fred. I only enquired about you the other evening...should be alot of opportunities in the weeks ahead.

Might need slightly lower 850s if marginal in some areas considering SSTs but i certainly like how things are developing. Has anyone heard from Blast from the Past (Fred)

Might need slightly lower 850s if marginal in some areas considering SSTs but i certainly like how things are developing.

Thanks John, must have been dreaming.

Hi all, Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting. Is this not the case any longer?

Its just so difficult to get a snow hurricane now a days. I give up

Now i know this sounds strange but it is quiet credible for a Mid to late December cold to very spell. Cold developing in Sandi and a Jet strem like a Sine Wave. Great opportunities. Firstfew bites will be small until then.

Just the 16 days as well! Merry Christmas to all. Going to call it a night.

A little longer than 7 days friend.

What would be the chances of the Alaskan and Greenland high meeting?

I would much prefer this option. I think we will have a better opportunity down the line.. once the forecasted deeped cold in situ.

Personally i would rather that first Low to end up in say...the ivory coast! I believe it would be just a sloppy mess in the South unless you were above 250 metres. It would be more beneficial to get the colder air more established and entrenched before looking for any battle ground situation. This Low could change proceedings further down the line. No expert just my 2 pence. Having said all that models are excellent in the unreliable infact they are some of the best ive ever seen. BOOM

I believe that is the 21st but im picking up what you're putting down ; )

I think thats the Carlsberg one

Crewe, keep up the excellent analysis. You evaluated the chart that you posted and were spot on with your evaluation. Always enjoy reading your posts.