[Moans, ramps and banter]

Anyone checked the net weather radar? Looks like a whiteout across the whole of western uk. If only
 

 

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

Barely raining in Edinburgh… forecast was showing moderate to persistent rainfall, and what we have is barely an intermittent spray. 
 

So no chance of seeing any flakes later, I was hoping the predicted heavy rain and dropping 850 temps could have helped bring temperatures down low enough for snow. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ice Day Stunning charts from GFS06 for central belt of scotland... although as always i'm sure we'll end up missing out, or Edinburgh will have sleety rain. 

Was hoping for a bit more of an easterly, maybe if the low shifts south we might end up pulling in colder air from the east with north sea snow showers for us in scotland. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Saturday looking like an interesting day up here in Scotland. GFS still showing sub-zero 850temps across most of the country, coupled with persistent rain and temperatures of 6-7C even at low altitude by the end of the day.

ECMWF on the other hand suggesting very heavy rain with possible flooding, but milder temperatures.

Quite phenomenal how different the temperature forecasts are between the different models, and it is only 2 days away. 10 degrees difference between ECMWF and GFS.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Some models (such as GFS06) are predicting onshore breezes that may keep temperatures quite low in the Edinburgh area. Latest GFS is predicting 22C on Sunday, and only 20 on Monday and Tuesday thanks to north-eastern winds. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

5 hours ago, skifreak said:

Having a flick through charts for something more palatable, looks like lows to our north putting a squeeze on things and it could get pretty blowy particularly far North and the hills later in the week towards the weekend, but that could just be the warm up act for really stormy spell early February, and colder too? Very little snow in Jan 2020 on the hills either, then February, particularly in the West brought lots of snow and was persistently stormy into mid March. Would take a repeat of 2020 weather from here given the spring we had! 

February 2020 was quite decent in Edinburgh too, would take a repeat of that anyday. 

Had some proper blizzard conditions over here, despite the winds coming in from the west rather than the east. 

Anyway, it seems like storms could be making a return soon, just hope the high pressure sinks south and expands towards Greece/turkey to flatten things out a bit. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Another dreadful day in the capital. 

Horrid weather. Satellite images show the endless stream of low clouds coming in from the Atlantic

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Agree with everyone, weather has been extremely boring recently. The high pressure is too far south and we are just on the edge, as mild westerly winds bring endless gloom. 

Ironically down south it seems to be colder (and sunnier), which I would definitely prefer to what we are getting now. No end in sight either, and I'm not looking at GFS anymore and it's phantom northerlies and height rises. 

Never thought I'd say this, but wouldn't mind an Atlantic storm to spice things up a little. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

23 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

A glorious day here in East London and anticyclonic rules the roost for the foreseeable - as each cell of HP starts to decline SE a new one comes in from the Atlantic to continue the pattern.

One or two models sniffing for a change of pattern in the furthest reaches of FI - possibly a stronger Atlantic (JMA) or the long-awaited retrogression (GFS Control).

As for GFS I'm still struck by how quiet the Atlantic looks for late January - the anticyclone is quite intense (over 1045 MB) so we might get lucky for some frost and fog (we'll see and don't take too much notice of the 850s)  and the overall NH profile not the worst I've ever seen.

I'm jealous of everyone in England, the HP is not far enough north and here in Scotland it is bringing endless gloom, mild weather and quite gusty winds. No change in sight either... The models are just depressing, I've stopped checking them every day as there isn't much point. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not everywhere though. Scotland looks very mild notably with minima. Inverness unusually the south will be coldest.

Indeed,

Ecmwf is pretty awful for scotland with lots of cloud around next week. 
 

GFS was great last week, lots of sunny, frosty days predicted. Now it has aligned with ECMWF, as I expected would happen. To get sunny, frosty weather, we would need the HP to move further north, instead it is sitting over southern U.K.  

[Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective]

Definitely worth keeping an eye on, although I’m not keeping my hopes up given that ECMWF is showing a completely different evolution. 
 

First we need the high pressure to push further north (as predicted by GFS). That gives us both better chances for cold and snow or sunny and dry weather. 
 

If the high pressure stays to the south, then we can forget about seeing any sun for days. Unseasonably mild, wet and windy being the key words. 

[Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective]

And just like that those signals have disappeared in todays models. 
 

I’ll keep quiet next time not to jinx it 

[Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective]

The models do seem to hint that we may be heading towards a prolonged period of cold zonality. 
 

So we could see some more seasonal temperatures and snow on low ground. Definitely not the worst outlook for Scotland, especially given the AO+ and NAO+ setup. 
 

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Is this a Bartlett finally? Seems to be in the right position and not shifting much from there either. 
 

I wouldn’t even mind cold zonality, at least it is usually quite long lasting and can deliver snow, especially here in Scotland. Early February 2020 was great. 
 

But with high pressure pushing north from Spain, anything other than very mild, wet and windy, is extremely unlikely. 
 

And for those that say these are normal Synoptics for our country, they are not. The temperatures are predicted to be about 5 degrees above average. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just for fun, I am wondering how this run will progress with the Iberian height rises given we still have above average heights over Greenland.

I suspect we may end up with a Bartlett in the long term. Models have been hinting at it all day, with a few exceptions. 

[Christmas Day in Scotland - Weather Competition]

On 15/12/2021 at 22:42, edinburgh_1992 said:

Edinburgh

Misty, low cloud and patches of rain and drizzle on easterly winds

Temperatures somewhere between +3 and +5

I will update this to heavy rain for most of the day, +2 to +4 degrees. Maybe some sleet in higher areas of the city, and possibly snow towards Currie/Balerno. Easterly winds. 

[Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective]

Looking ahead, the long-term outlook is quite bleak. Models are now consistently showing high pressure pushing in from Spain, apart from the odd member here and there. So the potential cold and snow over Christmas could be very short-lived. 

For the Christmas period, there is still a chance for many of us to see snow here in Scotland. As often happens, it is looking quite marginal at the moment: I’m still hopeful that we might see a slight south shift in the next model updates. It really wouldn’t take a lot to get all us all back in the game here in Scotland (eastern coastal areas included). 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

The long term trends on the models today are quite concerning - looks like a strong area of high pressure could build over Spain, turning things very mild (and wet in the north) for us. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Seems like the temperature inversion has reached its limit, the temperature in Edinburgh is steadily climbing and now at 4C. 
 

I thought it would drop well below 0 tonight, last night was definitely colder. 

[Christmas Day in Scotland - Weather Competition]

Might need to soon update my forecast for Edinburgh if the models stay on track… 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

GFS18 is ideal for most parts of the U.K. 

Perfect timing for a cold snap too, around the shortest day of the year. Snow could lie for days without melting given the low temperatures and short daylight hours. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Definitely an interesting period ahead. 
 

My main concern is that the eastern winds will be travelling across a relatively warm North Sea, and that may ruin the chances of seeing snow for eastern areas (Edinburgh included). I think we’d need at least uppers of -8 to guarantee snowfall. 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

GFS12 is still reasonably decent for Scotland, some snow is possible around Christmas even on lower ground. The latest run is showing some snow in Edinburgh on the 24th, followed by a cold and crisp day on the 25th. 

[Christmas Day in Scotland - Weather Competition]

Edinburgh

Misty, low cloud and patches of rain and drizzle on easterly winds

Temperatures somewhere between +3 and +5

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

ECMWF has downgraded the wind for Edinburgh tomorrow, gusts peaking at around 40mph. I trust the European model more than GFS, so probably nothing to worry about tomorrow. 40mph is standard for a storm.