edinburgh_1992
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Posts posted by edinburgh_1992
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1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:
Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good
I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland.
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Not so exciting anymore (except Highlands)...
Ensembles looking milder compared to yesterday too
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4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:
Let's hope the GFS is just having a wee moment, although the 18z had a similar low off the top of Scotland so maybe it's onto something?
This could also be interesting. US style blizzard?
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2 hours ago, bigsnow said:
And just like that 0z GFS sobers up the party started by the pub run..
The 0z isn't the worse, at least it's looking flatter out until 300h. Many periods in there with isotherms around -5 or even lower, which is enough for many of us to see rain turning into snow.
The ensembles are looking close to average too.
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Very nice GFS 18, but I'm not keeping my hopes up just yet.
The PV will have to weaken at some point, but can't see that happening before the 10-15th of February. We're in a weather pattern that is very difficult to unblock.
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Some places could see snow from Sunday onwards, temperatures not looking cold, but may just be low enough at times for snow to push down to 200-300m above sea level.
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Honestly I just want that high pressure to flatten out and become truly zonal. HP keeps pushing too far north over the UK
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Starting to think we might have a completely snowless winter here in Edinburgh...
Only hope is that the polar vortex does eventually weaken before the sun becomes too strong into march. No indications of that happening yet :(
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Absolutely hammering down with rain in Edinburgh. Looking forward to the dry weekend!
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11 minutes ago, 101_North said:
Whatever the weather. No matter how bad. It's better than spending twice as long on the bus!
I was out on my bike this morning and the black ice was lethal. It was +4 so no idea where that came from. Wind wasn’t too bad, even around lunchtime. I’ve experienced much worse on my bike
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I’m surprised the temperatures aren’t much higher considering the strong southerly winds. 850temps staying below zero too.
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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
We need a beast from the east redux to fully test the snow forecasting capabilities of the short range models
Like this?
About possible snow Monday or Tuesday, I don't think the uppers are cold enough for it.
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At least the temperatures should return closer to normal from tomorrow. Snow in the Highlands, rain showers elsewhere, but also plenty of sunshine in eastern Scotland. Staying windy
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2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:
This is Scotland chaps. If you want snow and ice, head north and east - Scandinavia still gets proper winters, although no doubt the old fogeys there grumble like us.
'When I were a lad, we used to get hunted by packs of wolves on the way to school and had to dig shelters in snow drifts to escape. When the polar bears appeared, we knew we were up lemon creek. Paddles were no use as the ice was too thick to break.'
I know this is Scotland, but the current temperatures and outlook are anything but normal - 13-15C in parts of the country.
If the high pressure settles over us, we could get some temperature inversions with seasonal temperatures at ground level. I think we will end up sandwiched between high pressure to our south and Atlantic systems tracking to the north (mild, windy and occasionally wet).
Also heading east and north wouldn't help either. Most of the European half of Russia has no snow at the moment, Moscow has been experiencing near record breaking temperatures. It was +9 last week there
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22 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
And so the mild dross continues:
Temperatures for parts of NE Scotland wont fall below 9C over the next 48 hours.
Bizarre!
9C in north-eastern Scotland, meanwhile snow is expected at 300m above sea level in southern Italy... What a strange winter
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Outlook couldn't get any worse. Massively above average temperatures for much of the period. This weekend temperatures are expected to reach 13C in Edinburgh, the average is around 7
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+5 in Edinburgh, patchy drizzle and miserable. Got up to 9 degrees yesterday
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9 degrees tomorrow, into double figures by next weekend. And no real change on the horizon as we head into January. High jet stream, strong polar vortex and nao+. Looking colder in southern Greece than in Scotland
Seasonal forecasts are always spot on when they predict mild weather, yet always wrong when cold conditions are expected
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Mostly sunny in Edinburgh this morning, around 4C. Rained earlier on this morning with 2C, no matter how low the temperatures it just doesn't want to snow here.
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9 hours ago, edo said:
I've never seen you and crewecold in the same room..... Just saying
Seriously though yup it is not great but I don't subscribe to its complete doom for weeks guaranteed.
I've tried to contribute in there before, but my messages always disappear even if they're relevant to model output. Weird.
So I bring the cold hunt moans to the Scotland chat.
We still have January and February, and I'd be very surprised if we don't see snow falling at some point before winter is over.
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2 hours ago, Sceptical said:
The MAD thread appears to have entered a period of state mourning.
For good reason. The model outputs are dire.
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40 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:
Still not pushing north unless north means right on this map and still no "very mild" temperatures.
And GFS not showing HP pushing north or "very mild" either at the same time frame so not "too":
As it was the last time I checked the GFS has only a couple of frames with temps of 10C or above anywhere in the whole run.
Ok maybe not very mild, but still above average temperatures and southern winds.
I was hoping that the jet stream would stay low as we head into the Christmas period. Instead these charts would produce south/south-western winds (high pressure over Spain to blame), rain and 8-9C.
Still a long way away, so I'm hoping the charts change as we get nearer and the pattern flattens out to give us a lower jet stream.
GFS ensembles are showing a gradual return to colder conditions after the milder blip.
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On 12/12/2019 at 16:11, CatchMyDrift said:
HP over Spain pushing north?
Ecmwf showing it too now
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6 hours ago, 101_North said:
Brightening up now after a fairly damp, dark, drizzly morning. Blue sky poking through. Sleet at best here tomorrow is my best guess.
I will be very surprised if I even see sleet in Edinburgh. Haven't seen a single snowflake so far, not even sleet.
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Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020
in Regional
Posted
And back to above average temperatures after the short lived cooler spell monday-wednesday. We can't even hold on to average temperatures for more than a few days. This weather pattern is anything but zonal, the jet stream is further north than it should be this winter and it wants to stay that way