[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

North? COLD 

East? COLD

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

PV is shredded 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Pub run do your thing and make us all happy

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like London down to -8c min on that 12z control run ... 

Where can we see this

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Not bad day 10

Lots of cold in Europe if the easterly develops

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120

Well, it is different!  

Some variability on the other models at same time:

ECM op closest to GEM and then some.  Scandi high instead maybe?  So much uncertainty. 

From what i can see, regardless which ones right everyhting leads to cold

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ecmwf 06z not backing down judging from the pressure chart at 72 hours!!!

Is it possible for you to share this

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

UK has vanished

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

 

Patiently waiting here in north west London

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Could get interesting later today for SE

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Perputation 11 from GFS 6z esembles. If only! 

 Lot's of eye candy now showing up in the esembles, I think before not too long the ECM and UKMO should produce a belter. I think with the SSW and deep cold atleast going to plunge into scaninavia/russia/eastern europe we have a lot to be optimistic about! 

Lovely positive post and I just wanted to add , if nothing happens in the final third of Jan we always have Feb and March and with more warmings showing on models it’s all to play for

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

honestly im just laughing HAHAHAAHH

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS might tease the fail to deliver but at least gfsp a bit more spicy... 

 

Ive noticed this with GFs past few days , it gets that high going north but its never enough and the arcitc high never is strong enough

Im assuming not enough downwelling

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Fairly good ECM mean , need to monitor this high pressure nudge north on all models in coming days

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 hour ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Yes i know i shouldn't be comparing to 2018 but i noticed these similarities , with some differences in the NH profile , but i wanted to point out the high pushing north from UK on GFS para today

This may be useless, what do you guys think?

I thought something was similar 

ECM has it similar but this time actually shoots the high up 

only searching for patterns right now and keep expectations low

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Yes i know i shouldn't be comparing to 2018 but i noticed these similarities , with some differences in the NH profile , but i wanted to point out the high pushing north from UK on GFS para today

This may be useless, what do you guys think?

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

GFS in deep fl

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

v cold on Friday from UKMOGFS still messy with the cold I think its because GFS has that to our south

+72hours and still not accurate my god

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, follows GFS, hopefully UKMO wrong here as it looks like it shows dry, GFS/EC v UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modehttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0les/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0

All 3 are now different 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

Please could you explain

The highs seems to maybe connect , which could bring iin a long fetch north easterly 

Only if UKMO went out one more day

This high flattening and all sorts everyones saying could end up good in the long run

a SSW happening rn above us and weve just seen GFS change over to UKMO and ECM for +120 hrs, so theres always a chance we still see major swings

One more point, is that like some mentioned earlier that westerly winds needs to be 'flushed' out even tho they are weak, Models could be reacting to that hence this output, 

And those reversal winds come back straight after

All part of the downwelling process i assume

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

GFS backfires

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul T said:

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

here comes GFS , im low key scared 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

ICON 12Z UP first

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

Is this a error ???? 2 days