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XtremeUKWeather

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Posts posted by XtremeUKWeather

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Just a little heads up for those in the south:

    The ensembles have shifted northwards, indeed some are quite alot further north on this 12z suite...

    Only a couple are in the channel...

    Whilst we are getting into the timeframe where the ensembles don't matter as much, its interesting to see there IS still quite a range of posiblities open.

    Also worth noting the AROME ensembles earlier this morning also were north of its own run.

    Wow , are the Arome ensembles public ?

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by XtremeUKWeather

    4 minutes ago, Matty J said:

    IMO the UKV has it too far south currently.
     

    The 6:55pm forcast on the beeb was quite suprising really, snow plastered all over EA and the Southeast. I usually find they are the last to show what we are ramping about in here so they must have a degree of confidence  

    BBC graphics on telly use ECM i think thatsw= why

     

    Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    image.thumb.png.b731a2fb7652d02cf926d413106c931c.pngimage.thumb.png.5645e0f2fae00b3ad390ddb1531f66a3.png

    Lovely GFS mean 

    Eventful weather week coming up:

    - Troughs in the flow providing surprise snow for some

    - Fronts providing longer time of precip

    - And showers of course from northern direction 

    Slack wind as well so evaporative cooling will be aided hugely,     Also need to keep in mind not everyone wlll see something , which is fine as potential is weirdly high this winter as we head into 2021

    Exciting times, I think uppers shouldn't be a big worry now as other factors will be helping bring the snow line down to sea level!!!!!1

    ALSO Fax charts from met office are going to very important in helping identify troughs etc

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, WXHerts said:

    UKMO good at d6 - would’ve been nice to see beyond. Need to see more of that circled amplification round the states which just isn’t there yet on other models..subtle changes such as that make all the difference. 

    9FF556B3-AA3D-4B20-AAEE-731116206250.jpeg

    26649E86-8964-4E45-B774-26634253B67C.png

    I agree here , we need to monitor shorter range charts with UKMO and GFS and spot slight changes like this

    And move forward to the end of november with a continued pattern/ set up like this, and then we can start focusing on getting real cold in

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