[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

 

Think we all new that this week was certainly just normal winter weather, rain for practically all unless you live at elevation.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, MP-R said:

Very close to Lulsgate. 02.4C now.

Where is your location? Must be the coldest place in North Somerset at your spot.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yep, had some sleet earlier. 01.8C currently.

Its 3.0C up on Lulsgate, you must be at a even higher location in North Somerset?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

53 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Hope so Jay, I have a feeling though - that I might be on the wrong side of marginal.

 

Yes especially in warm Weston. Travel 5 miles inland and it will be different.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yes  METO still going for it  despite usual posters saying they will change their outlook to less cold, every single day and every single day the met say the same. Stalemate

....and every single day there is nothing in the modelling to suggest this. And every single day the meto outlook, which sounds really good, is being pushed back day by day. Soon it will mention March!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

28 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me

Breakdown? Breakdown of what? Just some normal winter fare from the NW bringing snow to hills in the north, it looks pretty wet and miserable. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

24 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

Looks like hardly anything all in all looking at that chart. Also for the midlands north looks good for high ground.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

No backing down yet...

Give it a day or so..

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So Thursday could be more interesting for our region than first thought. Further corrections south bring more of the region into the game. Still probably best not to get your hopes up too soon though. 

Yeah, but it still doesn't change the fact the ground temps are warm, there is no cold air already in place, temps are forecast 4-5 degrees in the south. You may have conditions 'above' conducive to falling sleet/snow, but these events look just wet and miserable. There will be drizzle mixed in, maybe onto top the Mendips there is a better chance, but really this is just a non event for most.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, TomW said:

When have the BBC ever got it right! What model do they go on as it’s not the metoffice and they have me down for rain!

BBC use another supplier for the data.

As you say, Bristol will just be wet, Tuesdays event and Thursday. I have no idea what the fuss is about. Its just NOT cold. 4-5 degrees...its mental on this forum.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Looks pretty wet in the Bristol area Tues into Wednesday.

Simple really...its just not cold enough.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

Last year end of Feb/March?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

The voice of doom has arrived. Do you ever post anything positive?

Hey...that's what the chart I quoted showed...I didn't post it. 

Just now, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

isn't it a bit too chilly-looking for you to be out?

All depends on the track and whether the cold air can be brought in. Some locations will do ok, but its fine margins.

Its chilly yes, not that cold. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, TomW said:

I was replying to someone else in the SE as it was showing rain but turns to snow as it moves east!

Ok fair point. I live near Bristol, not expecting anything. Waiting February...in line with the meto 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

33 minutes ago, TomW said:

wait for it! 

Boom

Looks pretty wet in Bristol on 'that' chart.

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

14 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Now, I'm not saying I hold absolute faith in the MetO, far from it.....BUT, you're saying you dont have faith because of what the current models show........its that the models that dont go that far out, and aren't even reliable up to day 4???

I wouldn't hold any faith in any outcome past day 4 at the moment, so the best take away from these updates is that they arent showing above average boredom, just be happy about that!

You have missed the point.

 

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2019 to Saturday 23 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, although the incursion of these introduce a significant risk of snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

4 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Upgrade.

Hopefully the worst/best will hold off 'til mid-Feb

I have absolutely no faith in that outlook. The 9th Feb is 15 days away, let alone up until 23 Feb.

There will need to a massive turn around in modelling for the meto's 'cold or very cold'. I will just wait for that line to be gradually removed.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Gadje said:

Good charts you're invisible, a slight backtrack to mild - you're in like a mild warm breeze. Nothing wrong with liking mild mate, just maybe not the thread for you, unless enjoying others disappointment is your thing? if so you have mates here.

Certainly nothing good about 168 for snow prospects. Mild air mixed out. Its what the model shows.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Gadje said:

Or you mean Touche 168 ECM. So glad you are happy.

Happy? How could I from a cold perspective, not sure your point.

At 168 we don't want the LP it that position.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Ouch 168 ECM

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

 

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC day 10 mean is awesome tonight!!

If I had a pound for every time someone posted about how good the mean is.....ha

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, chris55 said:

The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend.

background singnals are good.....

watch this space...

Feb will come in like a lion  

 

 

..Or March? ECM absolutely shocking. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Nothing has changed, its the normal strong Azores high and continuous low pressure south of Greenland. PM air giving some sleet and snow to the hills in the north etc.

Certainly no sign of real cold, just normal winter fare, with temps I guess slightly below average. No ice days, no lying snow, just damp coldish, wet weather with sunny spells in between.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

46 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day

The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.

? Hm. Ensembles, Clusters, Anomalies have been in agreement for cold spells on many occasions, but the operational runs just back off or show some sort of tease. Lots of promise this winter in the background signals, even a SSW but nothing yet to write home about.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Looks like to me the ECM has the pressure sunk over the U.K. Looks like my feeling was right. I have noticed the change since yesterday mornings ECM. Cold uppers pushed away at 144 and gone at 168.