Lloyds32
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Posts posted by Lloyds32
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4 minutes ago, Catacol said:
No problem having a feeling - we are all interpreting the data for ourselves....but actually there is no model evidence for this interpretation at the moment. All ensemble data indicating the main height anomaly to the north and trough to the south. In this scenario, even if the high did drop a bit further south, we would still be very much in the general European freezer. Given the trend for arctic heights and ongoing impacts of downwelling ssw it isn’t also an interpretation that runs alongside strat teleconnections....and if you go and read David’s post from yesterday that very accurately sets out the next Pacific spike in momentum it would also fly against that forcing.
Most bets I think would remain attached to the UK being more under the influence of the trough than the block....though obviously north/south location will be relevant. This isn’t a pattern that suggests a sinking block. (For once....!)
Thank you for your response, much appreciated.
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40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
That's interesting.. other than gut feeling, do you have any charts to back that rather sweeping statement up? nowhere on this mornings output have i seen the ridge sinking over us in the way you are suggesting.
UKMO - nope
ECMWF - nope
GFS - Nope
GEM- Nope
Hi Karlos. You always reply to every post I make. Its a forum, many posters make a predication based on the output. The ECM at 168 and 192 today has a weaker flow from the east. At 192 the pressure the NE seems further south, pushing the stronger flow into France etc. That's how I see it panning out, just an opinion. No need to get so upset.
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Hm. I think today's ECM run isn't as good as yesterdays. Today's looks like the ridge is having more influence on the UK, where it has moved (sunk?) more over the UK stopping the strongest flow from the east. Which in turn pushes the low pressure further south into Europe. I'm looking for a stronger ridge and up further to the NE. I have feeling the ridge is going to sink more on the next ECM run keeping the easterly flow more towards northern France. Therefore the deep cold being pushed further south into Europe. That's just my take on the way I think it will pan out. Europe into the freezer with snow, with the UK missing out with the ridge sinking over us. I think the operational run was cold outliner.
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Nice to see something in the far reaches of the GFS that resembles what the anomaly charts have shown.
The pressure pushing into Greeland/Iceland region and away from the Azores certainly looks refreshing.
Also, even if FI, it shows a proper winter pattern, and what UK really needs to get a good cold spell.......forget the Atlantic slider games.
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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
The chances of a widespread snow event and decent cold spell between now and around the 5th - 10th feb.
Thanks for the reply. The models haven't been zoning in on any widespread snow event or cold 'spell' and now are backtracking..? It was just a potential slider.
Also anything into FI is more of the same, with a strong Azores High dictating the pattern.
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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
We really need at least a steadying hand on the 12z's but preferably an upgrade, or i can see this thing starting to unravel before its even got going.
Can you explain what needs a steadying hand, and what might unravel? The models show a system dropping SE bringing wet and windy conditions with the potential of snow over high ground in the north etc?
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13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Puts all the pathetic arguing in the Model Thread about a slider and 'below average' into perspective.
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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The Azores ridging days 5 to 8 is the problem to be resolved - either it means the pattern is too far east as it gets flattened or it throws up a wedge ahead of the jet streak or it ..... well it could be responsible for pretty well anything by days 9/10 re the trough
the spread on the eps for the Canadian trough dropping in was v wide on the 00z ...
As far I can see, with my little experience, the Azores high is going absolutely nowhere and will influence our weather for a number of weeks yet.
People keep posting anomaly charts showing the high linking up to the Greenland area, but every chart I see shows this scenario as very very weak. With the main strong anomaly being located in the Azores region.
Nearer to time, Atlantic NW/W winds with rain and wintry weather over high ground.
There has been so much scrutiny over a potential sliding low, which in reality would't deliver much during and post if it did.
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59 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Remarkable consistency from the Big 2 T144:
But with ECM we get to see the next four frames!
So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW.
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26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Are we looking at cold zonality ????
I thought that's all the models have ever shown regarding this so called 'cold' spell off the Atlantic.
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23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Pretty much all of those points you’ve just said aren’t happening can be found in the 00z and 06z suites...
scandi Heights for an example : happened
Greenland/Atlantic Height link up; see below post
In the far reaches of FI. Your chart is date 28th January 16 days away. Before that, and more towards the reliable..as per my post. Thats my view. Absolutely nothing to get excited about.
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Hmm. I'm just seeing systems with PM air coming off the Atlantic, some of it cold enough for snow over the hills, and some wintry conditions lower down. Looks very damp, coldish, yuk weather. I'm not seeing any Greenland/Atlantic link up with High pressure and a certainly no Scandi Highs. All looks like normal winter fare for the UK. Don't see any change this month from this pattern. Certainly no response to a SSW we all hoped for at the moment.
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Just now, Summer Sun said:
thanks very much
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1 minute ago, swfc said:
metiociel
great help...
Anyone else, thanks
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2 minutes ago, swfc said:
Slider alert at 150 hrs!!!!
sorry, link to where the icon can be found...thanks
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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Therefore an opportunity for lowland north and east to see snow imo. I have little in this initial game, a northerly, North westerly and even to lesser degree a north easterly rarely delivers for this part but if I was in the north or east I would be encouraged by the t144 output this morning. We, down here, will wait and be patient because we always watch others enjoy before we get our fun.
Indeed, quite possibly. You could be waiting a very long time...:)
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12 minutes ago, That ECM said:
and taking the ukmo and ecm just for balance?
Looks colder but still transient and mobile. Atlantic High Pressure in control.
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Taking the 18z and 0z GFS all looks very Atlantic sourced weather with PM air in the mix. Guess its good for hills and mountains but if your looking ice days and laying snow I personally don't see it. Looks cold (as in below average) and pretty damp and miserable.
Greenland high pressure of any size or position looks completely off the table. Transient cold air events looks the form horse, in between milder air off the Atlantic.
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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:
I disagree with that there will be excitement because the winter has a whole has been very boring so if we get short cold snap I expect folks we be excited it could lead to a more prolonged spell of cold anyway lots of changes to come over next few weeks and I see some posts above saying no real blocking for sustained cold spell. isn't it way to early for models to picking that up has only 10 of January.
I think there is plenty of blocking, just not in the right place for the UK. The rest of Europe having plenty of freezing temperatures and snow.
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23 minutes ago, TEITS said:
I haven't had chance to view the models for a few days but im disappointed with the output.
Turning colder? Yes
Chance of snow? Yes
Possible weak blocking bringing temporary colder N/E,lys? Yes
Chance of robust blocking bringing prolonged cold spell? NO chance!
For the next 2 weeks all I see is brief outbreaks of relatively cool/cold weather with greatest chance of snow for the N and higher ground. Problem is no signicant blocking is likely to develop in the key areas that will bring a prolonged cold spell. The ECM is obviously very different but how many times do we see potential in the latter frames of the ECM?? Answer too many times and I always distrust the ECM especially at +216/+240.
Very good post. Sums up the situation perfectly. We might go 'below average' but that doesn't mean snow to low levels or the conditions hoped for post SSW.
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So the more experienced members seem to think that Greenland High blocking features can be forgotten, and just the odd Atlantic ridging may bring NW blasts of cold air. This has been seen quite clearly in GFS FI. February now we should be looking too for a different pattern? The hunt certainly goes on...
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
You dont need massive blocking over greenland
A steering High pressure will do...
8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:Yes.
Think people are thinking only yellows and greens over Greenland = cold.
You don't need this, as Steve says small pockets of heights to disrupt the jet is enough. March 2013 had some good examples of this from memory.
Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.
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1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:
Does the gfs latest run look underwhelming or is it just me?
Still not seeing anything around Greenland regarding High Pressure to lock in any cold. High pressure tries to build in the Atlantic and push north, but low pressure around the tip of Greenland says no. Toppling high pressure in the Atlantic with fleeting cold bursts in FI seems the theme. Still waiting for the Atlantic High/Greenland High as touted by numerous charts posted.
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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:
The control for De Bilt is insane brhhh
Very cold set in general
That's because the models actually show cold uppers dropping down over that part of Europe. Here we miss out.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.