[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The fi gefs look more mobile to me than the extended eps 

not ‘feeling the love’ for a sustained height rise to our nw yet ...

I think we will be waiting another week at least.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Going to be a memorable snowy January for many parts of Europe though. Lovely big Arctic High but the PV in the wrong place.

Indeed, just too much going on towards the tip of SE Greenland, HP too far East, the rest of Europe having a wonderful cold time. The usual theme for most winters recently.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Strange, but all I see from the ukmo day 6 is a strong vortex posting a westerly through the UK...ecm has a southwesterly at day 6 and gfs has a monster vortex throughout...Perhaps I'm being negative by only looking at the UK weather.

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.