[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Are you just here to wind people up. That is not an 8c surface temp chart.

not at all, I love your excitment, but -8 in 850hpa near sea is not -8 on ground....

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It’s the 10th jan and we are talking about dew points for 20th jan....really? 

No snow at pos dewpoints and pos 2m .. there where alot of posts here for possible snow, so I find it legitim to mention, that the parameters don't talk for snow... or am I wrong? It's been a bit too enthusiatic... but thtas just my opinion, I may be wrong... I don't know your microclima in surtain parts of UK, but I see those +°C, those are rookie numbers for snow... In Germany we normaly need min -8°C in 850hpa for snowfall wich will deploy a durable snow cover... If hours lasting snowfall in morning hours is you goal to reach, than don't take me too serious...

best regards

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

And what about dew points? Are they irrelative?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I feel sorry for you guys, but I wouldn't expect any serious, longer lasting snow-events looking on this EC-Chart for lower mainland and coast-side

Too much west'ly stuff, on low grounds this would be around 5-8°C... just wrong pattern...

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

That would go on to produce a massive easterly

Hmm, nah... much more N to NNE, hitting MidEu... UK too close to High on Atlantic....

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Looks like a tropospheric split btw

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Could be MJO affected

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Again, those meteociel-charts 500mb aren't very good...

Could end up in a very southern west (Ws) scenario

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m guessing -6c uppers are good enough for snow at 200masl, so there’s plenty opportunities next week for the lucky ones!! Luckily I’m at 200m in East Cumbria 14-21st so my fingers are crossed.

 

This chart shows the altitude for the 0°C-Line btw, so 200m could be a bit too low. it maybe snows but i wouldn't expect a snow layer lasting for too long

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I am beeing an optimist about it...

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Signals are still good for a colder spell in late January, but we should keep in mind, that the tropospheric forecasts for a period like +10-14 days isn't a very logical thing in a chaotic system...

 

Ever had a closer look at a bubble?

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

This Low-Fastrunner at the french W-Coast

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS Para sets UK to close to the blocking High

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Snow Cover EZ +240h total

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

@Kirkcaldy Weather you are welcome, I also want to suggest http://wxcharts.eu/?panel=default&model=gfs,gfs,gfs,gfs&region=europe&chart=2mtemp_anom,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=384&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

for even more infos...

and https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fpreview&mode=animator

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I think UK has to wait a bit more...

 

Coldest day so far

 

but then... MidEU stays under cold, maybe snowcover producing cold ground air

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I'd rather use https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010912&fh=6

over meteociel... more info + better charts + better menu

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Have you got the one for T264 gfs please ? That will look like ECM I bet . 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Mine is anomaly not mean

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live.

5-6c under average in places, that’s close to Ice days in Jan in cold NW winds

I doubt that you want to see the GFS chart for +240h

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Looks good, though

....

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

And EC is flooding N-America/Canada with cold air and plenty of low GeoPot... will be mostly cold and rainy in MidEU...

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Yeah, nice cold punch spreading twrds to Canada @ ICON

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS Op still has this overforced atlantic bias...

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Hello friends,

been following this Thread for quite a time... thumbs up!

I would like to ask you, if those GFS runs can be taken very serious because of the shutdown problem...specially focused on possible missing "human"-error correction (GFS Strong Atlantic Bias)

And are there any EC-Charts for t850pa/2m Anomaly avaible for 20.1.+ ?

 

EC looks good for ME

 

my regards from Germany