February1978

As you might guess from my ‘name’ it is for me too. I was a 9 year old in Taunton, and it was not well forecast if I remember correctly. It started Saturday lunchtime, continued all day and by the morning there was level snow probably 40-50cm and drifts the same height of the garden fence. Because it was not expected, people were stuck visiting friends, in pubs and so on. There was a story that people stuck in the local pub only dug themselves out when the beer and food ran out a few days later An extraordinary few days, but mild set in pretty quickly and much of the snow had gone by the following weekend.

ECM - could do with the shortwave in the Norwegian sea clearing through quicker

Bitterly cold prospects deep in FI....

Yes, agreed. I know it's FI, but the GFS shows that sort of evolution, it's a really cold run

There look to be more hints of Scandi highs in FI generally now, good for longevity hopefully

This isn't right. The 8.2C figure in the mild and wet start of the month just hasn't been updated. It will be much lower now.

Oh you might be right - apologies

Well, from the Meteograms on ECM, it looks a cold and snowy run for my location (near Basingstoke), and well supported by 80-90% of the ensembles. Edit: looks like 0z data

Looks like it's getting there but that low to the SW is an issue

And a reload coming from NNE?

That's interesting - an initial look says most data is about the same - except the aircraft (upper air) data for 0z (overnight...) and less balloon data (also upper air) is available for 6z and 18z. Is this right? I guess most upper air data come from satellites these days? Excellent GFS to settle some nerves, btw

ECM - looks like the Azores low is encroaching towards us a bit more....

Is GFS going to kick it off with a battleground scenario?

Not when it's powder snow!

4.4c and 71mm please Goes against recent trends to go below CET average, but if that high pressure stays near UK it will be quite cold, possibly colder later too.

From the Meteograms, it looks ECM is a cold outlier....but it is ice cold in Scotland at the end

Tadley, North Hampshire - max -0.4c yesterday (Sat 2nd), currently -1.7c and RAINING! Rain frozen on car roofs & the ground.....

5.2c & 114mm please

The cold never quite goes away on the GFS. After an Atlantic interlude, we're back in cold air later in FI, looks like that cold pool over Scandi is going to be hard to shift.

I have a very similar guess (6.8 & 132), would agree.....but, if verified, GFS 12z would change things....!

6.8c & 132mm please Wet and relatively cool

11.9c & 108mm please Warm start, more changeable later

I wonder if there's been a month where the collective mean forecast is so far above 'average'.....?! Less settled in the second half, 15.7c and 68mm please.

17.1c and 91mm please Hopefully a bit warmer & drier later

17.6C and 63mm please