MATTWOLVES 3

In all honesty mate you have a good point.. I said yesterday it's completely wrong to keep singling out how bad all these models are, especially GFS.. I've made a little humour of it myself, but not to the agree some have. FRUSTRATION is the clear word here, if these models were showing what we experienced in Spring, folk would be dancing on the ceilings, because they are not.... Folks are climbing the walls! I'm very surprised by some of the attitudes considering our record breaking Spring.. The awesome 2018 summer, and even the 3 or 4 plume events last year. I really can't see all the drama at so early in the season.. Unsettled spells happen.. But they don't last forever. If certain posters are going to say they detest this climate, then they are not ever going to be happy with the output they see. It is what it is.. We get all weather types, and we always will, move us 1,000 further South to the equator then I'm sure you will get the conditions you crave. Still waiting for rain here.. Not a drop yesterday, even though the forecast stated a fair bit. Looking at the models this morning, nothing looks eye popping, but neither does it look terrible. It could be the final 3rd before things improve, it could be early July, but I'm sure it will arrive. Its probably best we don't wish our lives away waiting for anything.. Life's to short.

100% agree with you there Mike.. I've been following the ECM mean out to day 14 for the past few days, and it's being consistent with a gradual rise in pressure. NW/SE split looks a distinct possibility as far as I'm concerned Mike.. But looks very pleasent further South..

Not a bad mean, more especially across Central Southern and SE areas.. High pressure looks to be ridging nicely later next week. Looks a little more unsettled towards the NW and generally cooler. The ens point this out well..

ECM most definitely better than UKMO at day 5.. Could be a decent run this.

Yeh tbh it does have its moments.. If I recall last year @JON SNOW was posting some of the ens from GFS a couple of weeks before our first Heatwave at the end of June.. It kept with the theme and proven bang on correct.. All of these models have there moments and there failures... And in all honesty its probably due to the chaotic nature of our climate, rather than the major failure of any of these models.

I think perhaps we should start a little competition for when the makers of GFS decide its that out of sorts, they decide to rename the model again and throw more money at it.. Again the op is completely cut adrift from the pack..

More worrying is the fact the beeb was only just the other day talking about a warm and settled June.. Perhaps these monthly updates should be binned, bacause all they tend to do is lead to more frustration and despair.. I'm gonna stay focused on the 10 day output in future, and even that leaves alot to be desired.

Still nothing to nasty lurking in the extended ECM mean out to June 25th..pressure nudging 1020mb and the mean temperature around 8.5c. So it could be a lot worse.

It looks fine to me.. Pretty decent outlook especially away from the far NW. The heat will come, its very early days just yet.. But again some are getting hung up over the op runs.

I never complain with an Estly.. Always a dry direction and becomes increasingly warm as time goes by... Anyway what's the drama... 30c in the arctic today... All we need now is a direct Ntly and we will be in Heatwave territory.. @Allseasons-si Tonight's mean is an improvement on last night's with pressure a little higher.. The 14 day mean keeps it a little higher... Say around 1020mb til the final 3rd..Then we see a slight decline down to 1016mb...thats a long way off though.

Hell yehhhhh.

TBH mate it didn't look right last night also. Its an operational run so probably best to reserve any real judgement till the mean.. But it's a decent run and more so especially for areas away from the NW... its not very often the entire UK will experience the same conditions.. I'm content with tonight's output.. Far better than yesterday's... But I'm pretty sure some will be throwing there toys from the pram if we have just one more average op run...

@Allseasons-si cheers mate.. I'm having a blonde day even though I'm bald.. Here is the mean from the 12z...and yes it looks rather splendid.

I'm pretty impressed with the 12Z mean again, at least it's being consistent.. I'm also quite impressed with what its showing further down the line.. Some serious Heat building through Central Europe, meaning everytime we can pull in an Estly, we are gonna be seriously warming up.. Rain tomorrow and pretty cool, beyond that a warm up with plenty of sunny spells... And some hum dingers hopefully thrown in for good measure.. We are now at least looking at some proper Summer conditions.. Something for everyone... Enjoy it folks.... LIVE THE DREAM..

I think we have all said it recently... GFS needs to be reset back to the older version.. Yes that was erratic, but this model is spasmodic.. Again the op is a huge outlier regarding pressure.. The mean infact remains quite decent throughout.. Worth noting the spikes are decreasing later in the run, so perhaps the mean is on to something with better conditions.

Just a quick one from me regarding the mean.. The extended out to day 14 looks pretty good... Its staying around 1020mb..so certainly not unsettled.. Anyhow I have a migraine so that's me done.. Tek care all..

I'm pretty pleased with the mean.. And temperatures look to stay warm throughout.

I would put the current charts for the next few days in the bin, but certainly not those charts. Conditions could get close to 30c with decent sunny spells in more S/SE locations, and that's a hell of a better situation than this trough situation we have to contend with this week.. That's assuming all this comes off of course. Edit.. @Mike Poole non of the runs are making much sense at the moment mate.. Anything is possible.. Let's see what the mean as to say about that one..

Ecm smelling the coffee perhaps.. Or something stronger like a latte... Come to papa... Looks to be staying warm and perhaps a reversal to current set up, with the S/SE becoming more settled and much warmer.

It looks like the op as gone above the mean this time. The ens are all over the place.. So much scatter, but overall its a worse mean than the 6z..i haven't a clue what direction we are heading in.

Fantastic Model in fi is GFS... take a look at the 6z and then the 12z beyond day 10, yes it's a long way out but proves these charts at this timescale are pointless... Especially from this utterly clueless model.

Nice uppers in the NW of the UK, looks splendid in Western Scotland... You must be wondering what all the fuss is about. Its most definitely warming up though, my only concern would be Eastern coastal areas that could be troubled with low cloud and suppressed temps.. Sorry if I've upset any of you locals with that. Edit.. UKMO showing where the core of heat looks likely by day 6.

Mate you confuse me at times, you keep on talking about a write of Month which is fraught with error anyway.. Then when Tamara posts to give a greater insight regarding where we are heading with those background signals, you thank her for easing your mind, before a couple of days later your back on to say the same thing again! Are you basing you theory on the ops or all of the model output including the means and the ens!? The GFS mean looks pretty good.. And if you check the ECM mean out to day 14 you will see that even at that stage pressure is close to 1020mb...thats not a complete write off set of data. Its probably best you take each day one step at a time, talk about not seeing the wood for the trees.. You must be seeing the Amazon rain forest.. Mind you it is becoming scarce these days..

I've always looked at the op but I take more notice of the mean. My post was more a reference to some who get seriously stressed over each and every op run, but only meant in light hearted Manor. Sometimes it's good to ease the stress levels. You had me worried with the 15,000 posts mind... I've only posted just over 3,000.

I'm seriously considering giving the GFS operational runs a wide birth in future, just a few days ago we had settled all the way from the op now we have unsettled all the way, especially from day 7 onwards.... With Low Pressure slap bang over us for days!! The mean is not really supporting of this and continues to show a decent prognosis further down the line.. Perhaps we could save on the Valium by reserving our efforts for the mean folks. Because I tell you what I'm pretty sure my BP as elevated these past few days..