MATTWOLVES 3

The more settled conditions seem to have been put back a few days, perhaps towards the backend of next week we see the real improvements.. This backed up by the latest Exeter update also and still a fair amount of fine conditions are being called for July... Always a concern for some when nice conditions get put further back! But I myself are not to concerned about it.. If it was a winter yes.. When cold snaps being put back seem to always mean one thing and one thing only.. Buy at least with Summers we can literally be guaranteed fine and hot conditions at some stages during the Summer, even when seasonal conditions are only remotely average. The 6Z mean does highlight the change to more settled conditions during the 2nd week of the new month.. So i feel its never so much of a... If it can go wrong... It will go wrong.... Not in Summer anyway. We just need to ride the next 10 day's out.. No real dramas. .

No worries folks.. EC46 runs this evening, hopefully I will be bringing positive news, unfortunately I'm still only learning how to read it, so don't shoot the messanger... Amazing Tams.. And just goes to show how your always willing to anwser many posters questions with such high detailed and alot of time consuming posts. Gr8 stuff..

I'm not sure how you can nail such detail for a 2 week period. Intermittent rain and zeroe sunshine over a 2 week period and perhaps a weak ridge at day 15! You must have access to some better models than me. I'm fairness I'm seeing gradual improvement as early as next Monday. Slowly but surely a ridge building into the SW.

The mean is keen to extend an High upon the sky.. Edit... Dam Mike your to quick..

I dont think it's a big player for Summer conditions and from what I've read from the Met it's unlikely to have much factor on the summer... Solar minimums are one of many factors and I wouldn't say they contribute a great deal to a poor summer. In fairness they don't appear to have a great deal of influence on Winter conditions either. The situation we have had over the past 3 months as been Doomsday, the weather not playing ball for a few days is certainly not. Try not to get to stressed over it mate, things always seem worse when you get anxious over all these model runs.. And bare in mind what you see now can be completely gone within 24hrs.. Enjoy the rest of your evening

Here is the GEM runs in its entirety.. I'll have some of that please.

Thankfully the mods removed one bizzare comment on summer could be over post... One bad run doesn't spell the end.. The GEM looks fab but doesn't seem to have been mentioned much, yet the much irregular GFS seems to hog the spotlight... It bemuses me. The general trend i am seeing is for improvement within than 7 or 8 day range, pretty much backed up by Exter and the Beeb.. Hopefully ECM will highlight this in the last few frames. Edit.. My bad the post still remains.

Thanks for that insightful post @Tamara I've got to agree with that also, and what Blue states as well.. The GFS 6z mean tends to ebb and flow with that Azores High Pressure. We see the extension of it building in at times and especially for Central Southern parts, before a little breakdown and trough bring rinse and repeat scenarios moving forwards. This looks like a potential trend for July in general with plenty of usable conditions, and at times probably very warm. The EC46 seems to highlight this type of pattern quite well with the ridge building in at times before receding back SW after a few days. All in all the long term trend is pretty good and more especially away from those NW locations.

Again positive signs this morning, ECM builds those Heights towards the South and ICON also builds them by day 8.The mean also shows this favourable build of pressure too... So the plan is something more Summer like come the 7-8 day period.

These warewolf films really keep me up at night... Icon was a decent run with plenty of Heights in the equation come later in the run.. Good morning to you all..

No need to harp on about the next few days, as everyone knows the score.. Now beyond that does look promising, I think the EC46 picked up on this over a week ago and now the means and some of the clusters are showing it quite strongly.. Towards the backend of next Weekend and more especially the following week look pretty good.. Enjoy your evenings

Mate I've not insulted your intelligence one bit. I'm just pointing out there are signs of an improvement on the mean, the ECMWF shows this as does a fair few clusters, and mush pointed out that the NOAA charts also detail this. Not having a dig at you, your entitled to your opinion, and you probably know more than me anyway.. So it's pretty pointless me trying to bring anyone down. Enjoy your weekend.

I'm sorry mate... November!! 15-21c regarding temps from the Midlands South, yes it's disappointing, but as November really become that warm!! You say no sign of anything settled in a 10 day period so obviously you haven't viewed the means or you refuse to be influenced by them. It looks to be improving by the end of next Weekend or very shortly afterwards.

ECM mean finishes a treat. Long term outlook is now looking pretty good after a few more mixed days..

The GEM ends just smashing.. And just quickly to add from me on those terrible events in Scotland, hope all our regular scottish members are OK, because that's an horrific event that can affect many people, what with Covid, BLM and now this, RIP to those who lost there lives.. Sad events just lately, hopefully the weather will be cheering us up again very shortly..

I wouldn't take to much notice mate.. I posted CFS charts just a few days ago that was pointing to lovely Conditions into next mid month. If your gonna be Influenced by longer range models stick with ECMWF.. yes it can be wrong, but it's certainly more on the ball than CFS and doesn't suffer from these major wild swings in output that CFS tends to suffer. Looking at the EXETER update seems pretty consistent with the main model also, certainly looks to be some decent conditions at times through July.. @JON SNOW yes mate today's forecast as been a little wide of the mark, heavy thundery downpours have not materialised at all, instead clear blue skies and Hot.. Just goes to show how difficult the detail can be in forecasting even at short range.

Its never a good idea to say for sure that things are going to massively improve to far down the line for obvious reasons. But the general consensus is for conditions to improve by next weekend, pretty much a rinse and repeat pattern as Tamara highlights so well above. The Long range 46 last night and this mornings eps and clusters are also showing this rather well too. Not set in stone but promising all the same. Edit... Also pointed out by Singularity above..

To sum up the EC46 out to the final 3rd of July.. We seem to have a pressure build showing towards next weekend, this perhaps holding firm into the following week.. Beyond that I'm calling a NW/SE split, there should be decent amounts of fine spells as the Azores ridges into the South quite often.. At this stage I'm not seeing big heat,but this can change quite readily with the orientation of High and Low Pressure, so I'm not convinced by that. Also worth noting is the far NW of the country as high precipitation amounts towards mid month and beyond, in excess of 50-70mm...Central/Southern and SE parts have much lower amounts.. 20-30mm..hence a NW/SE split... Low pressure still looks to Influence that neck of the woods more frequently..

Hopefully things will turn out OK again Mike.. Just running the EC46 and it does extend High Pressure from the SW towards next weekend and it looks like persisting into the following week at this stage.

It's an improving picture for sure on tonight's mean,much better by day 9 and 10..

Most of the model runs have been mixed for the next 7 days.. As per normal it will be more so unsettled for W/NW areas, those further South and East should at least get some drier sunnier interludes between any systems.. Temps to the North pretty lacklustre... 14-16c...further South perhaps 19-22c at times. Just hints from the GEM that things improve toward day 10 and gradually it becomes warmer.. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see another heat spike come Mid month and last 3rd..almost like last Summer with these hot spells appearing towards the end of each month.. I reckon it will be coming home pretty soon.. Just a little patience required.. Mind you judging by the idiots descending on the South Coast, perhaps a storm or 2 or high tide may wash the mindless Fools away..

Interesting point you make there. There is talk of much warmer and settled conditions by mid July from Exeter currently, and I think the excellent Singularity hit on this point with his update yesterday. I've also noticed several online forecasters highlighting August as potentially a very promising month.. Hopefully Tams and Singularity will home in on this closer to the time. CFS although a very temperamental model does indeed show much better conditions towards mid month. Hopefully the EC46 may shed some more light on this later this evening, which I will update on later tonight. Enjoy the heat folks, personally I feel its to dam hot right now, I woke up this morning feeling like I've slept in Death Valley.

The ECM mean does tend to improve beyond a week, especially towards the SW.. Its a little mixed in the shorter term, but nothing horrendous, I sometimes get the impression World War 3 as broken out on here judging by how quite it goes over a few poor runs.. Plenty of Summer left just yet.. Oh and another positive is Heights over Greenland on the mean are less intense than the op indicated..

Glad you mentioned that, I've noticed Exeter talking along the lines of more widely settled and much warmer period towards next mid month! One to watch for sure. UKMO not that bad tbh, at least a warming possible beyond day 6.

Arpege is hot... 33c possibly 34c possible during the next couple of days.. ECM mean perhaps a traditional N/S split over the coming days... Pressure out to day 14 remains around 1016mb in the South... So not overly unsettled would be my call. Enjoy your days