MATTWOLVES 3

Strooth judging by some of the posts this evening, I think I need to get me violin out.. The GEM looks pretty good, I've not even viewed the GREAT FAIL SYSTEM aka GFS.. Things not looking to bad moving forward if you ask me. Chins up gang.. Head held high.. Plenty of warmth in the GEM ending..

My point was after just 8 days into a new month your saying the month is highly likely to be poor!! There is nothing constructive about that at all. Personally I would have said if things don't change soon, we could be looking at a poor month! If the GFS 6z would have been a good run, you wouldn't even have made that statement in the first place.

What is it with your infatuation of GFS, every run is showing a completely different forecast and can not be trusted at all. The EC weeklies are much more promising as is the Met update, and tbh the EC46 as been pretty acurate so far this summer.. What I can't understand is you moan about these unsettled conditions, and when a more settled spell is showing, your quickly back on to state how short lived its going to be! Now your making reference to July being as bad as 2012,when infact it's only 8 days into the month. Your basically writing off 3 weeks on the back of the GFS 6z..you must drive yourself mad with all this on a daily basis.

Decent ECM op and I have no complaints from the extended mean.. Its around 1018mb or so through till day 14,from the Midlands South anyway.. It kind of fits in with the EC46 and I reckon pressure may strengthen again come the backend of next week.

The 6Z mean looks dandy for some much better Summer conditions.. Long overdue and the current trends look better. Hi NWS I think Feb is OK, he posted last week on the July temperatures contest thread.. Hurry up back mate, soon be Winter.. Hope your keeping well NWS..

Sorry mate, I think I need to start calling it a NE/SW split in future. Regarding the latter frames of the 46 looks like a fair amount of settled Conditions in the South out to latter stages of July. Towards the end Pressure tends to slip back with conditions perhaps a bit more unsettled by this time. Precipitation totals are becoming quite high in the usual places and this trend continues into August... Suprise.. Suprise.. This is also the case across Iceland and scandy to, with Central Europe aslo looking quite mixed. Conditions in the USA currently and through much of the month are for some serious heat across large parts of the mid West stretching out to the Eastern Seaboard at times.. Some very hot conditions at times through much of July.. Absolutely huge Anticyclone of the Western coast of the states.. Ie the Pacific ridge in full effect.. Anyway this becomes very speculative at this range and is only intended as a current guide for possible trends... Alot can change and very often does.. I must admit though I find it a very entertaining Model... Kudos ECM..

EC46 builds pressure in strongly for this weekend.. Next week we still have the influence of High Pressure, especially away from the far NW where they are a little more at risk from the Low Pressure over Iceland.. If anything pressure seems to be building again towards the following Weekend.. Again especially towards more SW/S areas.. Nothing nasty out towards week 2 being illustrated away from that far NW corner... Temps not to bad on the whole rather warm in the SE.. cooler towards the NW. Edit... To be honest it's looking pretty good out to July 21st, High pressure looks to have a bit more influence at this stage than the previous run last Thursday.. Its not showing to be extensive ridging at this stage but it looks to be influencing areas away from that dreaded NW/N quite well.. The Exeter call of perhaps settled weather more likely to dominate looks pretty plausible at the moment.

That's a pleasing mean, Low pressure towards Iceland may trouble the NW at times towards the end, but it looks good further South... Hopefully Summer is returning... For a while at least.. EC46 beginning to roll will let you know more later.

I really fail to see how you can come to that conclusion on the back of a GFS operational run.. And what certainties can you have for 2 weeks beyond this Weekend.. That's literally 3 weeks away.. Can you not at least wait for the means, the clusters and tonight's EC46 before jumping the gun so excitedly.

I get your point but if you follow the trend back to the early 80s they are pretty slim on the ground. I'm confused as to why so many recent August's have been poor, perhaps we are due a run of good ones. Who knows the seasons at times seem to be completely out of sync.

At the rate of Global Warming its highly unlikely we will have to wait 15 years for another Hot August, but increasingly likely we will be waiting 15 years for another hard cold snap, as much as that pains me to say.

Decent Icon at least for the Weekend and early next week, also warming up slowly but surely.

Am I correct in saying these - AAM sequences lead to amplified ridge and trough patterns around the Globe. I think we had such an event around Summer 2018..and did we not see ridging become more prevalent as the summer progressed.

I always said you was to over keen young man... The 12z doesn't run for another 4 hrs Zak... Patience my man... The 6Z mean is looking pretty decent out to day 9..

Last one frome me, the mean is pretty cosha.. Hopefully the morning runs.. Pardon the pun... Will be sticking with this theme. A very good evening to you all..

ECM op is fine, it looks like at least some decent spells of weather come next weekend. Temperatures probably a little above average at times too.

The GFS ensembles seem to agree with a more settled spell from around the 10th...just look at those rainfall spikes over that 5 or 6 day period.. Its drier than a camels backside on a desert run. Exeter also highlighting more settled towards the West come next weekend then a N/S split with more settled the more favourable outcome but with low confidence. Be interesting to see the EC weeklies on Monday..

The 6Z mean also showing a very decent spell of conditions come next Weekend and beyond, so let's see how this plays out as the noaa charts still not really on board.. That mean does look lush though.

Those charts still showing the ridge to the W/NW John with the upper flow more W/NW! Also heights looking strong in the pole region with very decent conditions across the Eastern Seaboard.. Have I got the right idea there?

Here is a broader view of tonight's ECM op run.. And regarding the mean we end up at around 1020mb by day 10 and out to day 14 we are on average at around 1018mb for the Midlands South. And around 1016mb further North.. Enjoy your evenings.

You OK Mike you've just posted the day 3 ECM chart for day 10... Your not still in the pub are you mate.. Edit... What a legend you are @Mike Poole

Where is everyone.. ECM throwing out a nice run.. 240hrs....what next? Not everyone may think these are anything special charts, but compared to the last few days I feel its a marked improvement.

Ecm at 168hrs much better than the morning run, not bad at all.. I think @Mike Poole as been watching to much Star Trek..

Yes but there's been many a good summer with an average August that followed. Look at 2018... A fab June and July before August became average at best. I still think August will buck the trend this year and be our best summer month by far.. I stand to be shot down in flames by this prediction though... I said after Summer 95 those type of summers will become more frequent.. Ie... Every few years, and only had to wait 23 year for the next one...

I can understand where your coming from mate.. I had high hopes after that gr8 May which was obviously a false sense of security.. That's a concern of mine just lately to keep seeing the best conditions reserved at day 10+,it almost feels like chasing the illusive Winter cold snap right now. I don't think the sun as even made an appearance here for 8 days now.. Its one extreme to the other and it drives me mad at times. The EC 46 and the current NOAA charts don't paint a gr8 picture currently, that could change soon, well Im hoping it does... Forever the optimist can be tiring at times..