MATTWOLVES 3

I ain't been so excited for ages... Get a life Matt..

Yes Zak it's looking more interesting for sure.. Will be looking forward to the EC46 take on it later...all this talk of plums... I mean plumes is making me hungry... For the love of God... Bring us a plume, we've been waiting over a month..

We would all be reaching for the valium if you did... Seriously though enjoy ya Hols and stay safe...

I view the GFS 12z and I think roll on Winter and perhaps some decent cold and snow action... Looking at runs like this are making me think roll on next Summer for hopefully a much more interesting pattern. Truelly shocking is this run, but it is what it is. Edit.. GEM is not much better at 180hrs. I've just noticed by reading back my post, I'm saying roll on Winter and next Summer all in one sentence.. That's model fatigue for ya..

Shame on me for picking that promising GFS mean.. Tut tut. Yes Rob it has to be said Exter seems to agree with those NOAA charts you have posted. Very mixed into the 1st part of August, perhaps more settled later.. EC46 hinted at this, but it's a long way off.. But this next 2 week period does look far from settled, I hate to say it because it's driving me nuts, but it does look the more sensible call going on the 46 and those NOAA charts.

The mean perhaps picks up on that potentially better spell Karl.. I'm hoping you do a repeat of last year when you picked up on a plume 2 weeks out... Come on mate start reading them teabags again.. Excellent summary Tams...

Just to conclude last night's EC weeklies.. Tentative signs of an improvement by the final 3rd of next month, with more ridging to the SW.. Bit concerned how it's been pushed back from the 1st week out to the final 3rd though! But again absolutely know signs of any significant warmth being flagged up,and this keeps with the pattern it's showed all Summer... So whatever signals have been leading it seem to have been pretty close to the mark. Here's hoping for a better run on Thursday.

Just to add some weight to John's post above regarding tonight's EC 46...its pretty much a non event out to the 12th of August.. I'm still waiting for it to update out to mid month and beyond.... But to sum up we have a situation of Low Pressure to the NW very often and the Azores High is displaced far to much SW to have any telling influence. The flow is mainly Wstly and so the temps are never anything to write home about... 20-22c for the far SE... mid teens to high teens much further North.. This run is miles away from last Thursdays... I'm still hoping for that improvement Exter mentioned by mid month, but still awaiting on this... But as it stands I think Alderc said earlier that another Summer like this could be 7 or 8 years before another... I hope your right mate.. Still know signs of Summer proper out to the 15th..Annoyingly temperatures are struggling also... To say average is an understatement! This is a long way out though and can obviously change.. Anyway I've had enough now, the run is depressing me..

And hopefully the Euro will be giving us something back when the 46 rolls in an hour... Longer term anyway.

Don't agree with that at all.. 2010 big freeze.. 2013 freeze... 2018 Beast from the East.. 2018 one of the warmest driest Summers ever.. 2019 3 or 4 plume events! I think when the weather becomes stuck in a rut for a few weeks some seem to feel the climate is boring and never changes. Icon ends pretty unsettled but with perhaps a ridge building in closely after.. All of a sudden some scandy Heights appear to be emerging.

The op you could call a slight outlier towards day 10..both the mean and the op agree that its at least rather warm going on 850s..well under any wetter moments it wouldn't feel to good.. I say the op is an outlier regarding pressure by day 10,but it may be on to something! The extended mean out to day 14 is poor tbh... Its coming in around 1010-1012mb..Hopefully the weeklies will throw up something better on Monday regarding further ahead.

First thing Scorcher is even with average Temps, that sun is still as strong, absolutely gorgeous here today..and let's not forget some decent conditions through to midweek.. But for me, due to AGW.. we no longer have a normal seasonal pattern.. Look at April and May.. High summer conditions. So for me these type of conditions could be just as likely in September and even October. I think it's irrelevant about a poor July leading into a poor August, take a look at 2018..fantastic summer went in to an average August! I think I'm correct in saying High Pressure in September can lead to fab Summer like conditions due to the Sun being lower in the sky and perhaps meaning less cyclonic conditions due to this.. Correct me if I'm wrong though. I agree a long standing Heatwave will become less likely the further we move on, but for sure, I feel we can still get some cracking conditions through the later period.. We can also get some crap Expect the unexpected and you will never end up disappointed mate. In the shorter term some nice conditions for the next few days.. If it all goes wrong so be it... Soon be next Summer!! There goes me wishing another year of my life away.. Icon becomes like a washing machine come next Weekend.. All over the place in other words. I've got a feeling UKMO is gonna also look a bit slack come next weekend... Some downpours and some drier spells. Yep.. Its still quite slack.. Could we nudge a ridge if the the run went on a few days.. My call would be for some settled conditions the following week, still a risk of some showery activity though, especially further W/NW.

Perhaps we are looking to around Mid August before any signs of a more prolonged spell of settled Conditions.. Exter highlighting this but with low confidence, and they've been talking of such conditions since June tbh, but to little affect. But regardless of what happens there is always the possibility of a decent September.. Such as the uncertain times we live in, just about anything is possible.

If you would have gone on the met office contingency planners forecast then this summer so far is below average.. You say troughs and ridges, but these ridges are very weak affairs... Meaning not the best of conditions when they build.. We have not had a sustained build of pressure since the 4 day Heatwave last month! And its pretty pointless to keep saying we are used to poor Winters... So deal with it! In a warming world the cold pools get less extensive, but the Heat builds significantly! You only have to take a look at the conditions in Eastern Russia to see what's going on currently. The 6Z mean shows the same scenario moving forward... Troughs and weak ridges.. I'm still hopeful of an improvement further into August.. But this would most probably be the last chance saloon! If this fails to materialise Summer 2020 could well be one that is quickly forgotten. Edit... Worth noting if you take a look at the average temperatures in Siberia from January through till June, they are running roughly 5C above average.. That's immense.

That's poor Rob.. Not much joy on the extended ECM mean also.. Around 1011mb pressure for the North, and 1014mb For the far South out to day 14.im still hoping for an improvement come the end of the 1st week though, but be warned I've been hoping since June..

It's not a bad ending from ECM and at least it's warmer, especially the South.. I'm not buying this August is an extension of Autumn.. Yes it's been a long while since we had one, but it's sods law we will get another run of good ones.. Also reading between the lines, the met currently saying there could be a good deal of fine weather next month.. Confidence is low but I'm hoping we get another positive ECMWF long range on Monday.. Keep it positive guys, we are due a lucky break.. Enjoy your evenings

I think mate its the nothingness of it all.. Its neither unsettled or settled,but just constantly cloudy with limited sun and it does grind the gears after a few weeks tbh.. Yes conditions next week see some at times decent weather. It trends a little more unsettled towards next weekend, but it's a rather slack flow.. Which could entail more gloom and nothingness! Just taken a look at the extended ECM mean out to day 14 and the pressure is disappointing to say the least... Its averaging around 1013mb, which is pretty much the starting point of stuck in the middle of nowhere. I'm still hoping for an improvement during the 1st week of August, going on the 46,but Monday will be an interesting run... Namely due to the fact it went for a major turnaround on Thursdays run, compared to the previous one which was poor.. So here's hoping it keeps with that trend change.

Yes Mark.. I pointed out last night from the weeklies about perhaps not a washout.. Tonight's ECM brings a decent week for the whole before trending more unsettled.. But it looks far from a washout.. Quite a slack pattern infact.. So perhaps some areas drier while others could get some big downpours. Bit of a ridge by day 9.

So some signs of perhaps an increase in AAM through August, going on the ECM ectended last night, perhaps Tams could shed some light on this at some point. It was quite a different run from the Monday one though. More prevalent ridging and a decrease in rainfall amounts.. The general situation for anyone wanting to get away for a break abroad is a very positive one.. Central and Southern Spain remaining hot with loads of Summer conditions there. No surprises there really! Italy and Greece much the same, also some very warm conditions for the low countries at times through next month being flagged up. Plenty of warmth in France, and very warm/hot conditions in Southern France.. Over to the USA and there is lots of heat towards the Eastern Seaboard and out to the mid west, this very warm air also effecting the Eastern Seaboard at times.. Some warmth also to be found into Southern Canada also at times. Not sure to many folk would want to travel to the USA currently anyway with the Covid situation. I think Tamara as now posted so I'll see what she as to say.

I posted the EC weeklies last night up til around 11th of August... Just had another gander further a field and it tends to be going for a better August than anything in July... Ridging is more prevalent, especially into England and Wales. This trend is showing right into the backend of the month.. So as it stands... The 46 looks pretty decent for next month... Only time will tell.. But let me just say, this is a much more thorough and efficient model than the CFS.. I hope its onto something.

Its flagging up around the 3rd..and the period from then through till the 11th is certainly better than the Monday run Mark.. Its been pretty consistent this summer with its general trend.. And it's never showed any persistent heat all summer so its been bang on with that.. It wouldnt suprise me to see some decent conditions through next month though.. So in the shorter term we have some Decent weather next week... We then have a breakdown come late next week.. Will be interesting to see what the short range models make of that, because the EC46 is currently going for quite low rainfall amounts for much of Central/Southern parts.. The shading is blue which indicates 10mm or less. Its possible it could be localised downpours meaning some areas stay drier.. We should know more come Monday..

A little bit of good news moving forward.. The 46 throws another ridge in from around the 1st week in August and it looks a little more extensive for a few days.. So perhaps the next upcoming unsettled spell quickly being followed by another better spell.. Early days and tread with caution but looks like a decent spell coming up from mid way through the 1st week of August out towards mid month.. The Azores amazingly seems to be trying to make more of a fist of it. Perhaps it's getting fed up of being bullied around. Long way off but its a possibility and tbh we at least need to cling on to some kind of better conditions devoloping next month..

Some early updates from the EC46.. next week looks pretty usable for many areas.. No heatwave for sure but High Pressure looks in control for many. Towards next weekend we again have the High receding back to the SW.. Low Pressure looks to be pulling down from the NW.. But at this stage I wouldn't be overly concerned, the precipitation amounts remain low away from the far NW. Into the following week we still have some ebb and flow from the Azores High, and it looks like the far SW is of most benefit, so perhaps not a bad location for a little break or Holiday... Subject to social distancing of course.. Pressure close to 1019 in the far SW and more typically 1014 further North.. Very much a NW/SW split.. There you go that's me avoiding that horrid NW/SE split phrase. Temps North to South... Average at best further North, more pleasent further to that High influence.. Overall rainfall amounts are not to high through til the end of the month. But these do trend higher in that NW location.

While I wait for the EC46 to roll out just a quick glance at temperatures for Friday.. Looks like we could eek out a 27-28c in a few favoured spots, especially where sunshine is at a premium. The mean Is much the same, it trends more unsettled by next weekend before hints of a slight improvement come the end... Again i will know more in an hour or 2 if this will be backed up by the weeklies.

That's a brave call... I wouldn't put someone else's money on GFS ever being correct.. And you say GEM... Well this time yesterday it was showing the best output moving forward! 24hrs later and its literally the worst!! Doesn't breed much confidence does it! And on a brighter note for my Scottish friends, the Eastern side of Scotland could reach 25c tomorrow and its looks a nice day. Infact the Weekend should finish on a better note, subject to the movement of that front. Next week looking good according to UKMO.. BIG ECM coming up.. I feel it will side with the met model... GFS as no friends..