MATTWOLVES 3

Hey gang..plenty of juicy 6z ens from GFS again..the cold Xmas day options are gaining momentum...remember when Borris addressed the nation all those months back...you must stay at home! Wouldn't it be great if he had to repeat that in the next few weeks due to different circumstances..

Was just chilling out to a dracula film,when boom those 18z ens smack me right in the eye...some barn stormers for Xmas day.. Thats me done for tonight im gerrin overly hyped

As Scott says... KEEP THE FAITH!! ECM not to bad, at least looking pretty chilly and seasonal, the real dramatics may occur a few weeks later as the Vortex finally falls over from excessive alcohol over the Xmas Holidays.. That was me putting it into layman's terms. GFS deep FI precipitation graphic says we have the possibility of something wintry in places... Hey if its cold enough, just about anywhere could get a sprinkling. Rudolph is on suspension currently, due to Covid restrictions.. But he's gerrin excited... Bit like me... Know throwing toys out the pram from me this Xmas, I would much rather play with em..

For me those ens are now showing a little more oomph to those cold pools.. I'm not getting that Friday feeling... But most definitely gerrin that Sunday feeling The door is a jar for Xmas and something wintry most definitely in with a shout.. Oh and a quick heads up from X met man Jon Hammond... He is stating that the vortex may be soon becoming critically weak, to the point of collapse, if so our chances of severe cold will be on the increase further into the season.. So our very own strat guys on here are most definitely on to something. Enjoy your Sunday roasts... Quality streets all around

You seem to be making observations based on Historical events! You say most of us were born with computer technology! I think many of us were still in the Telegram era when we were young. There is also a difference of many of us on here searching for a good cold snap and snow, and wishing for a 63 event... Yes that's very unlikely, but a possibility all the same. All extreme events of any nature will cause alot of human suffering at some point, extreme cold, extreme heat, drought.. It is what it is... Some of us ain't seen snow for several years, and would happily take a 2018 repeat for a few days. You make some good points, but I don't see many on here encouraging a 63 re run. I think your basing that anology towards the end of your post on what the chief scientist of the Met said the other day.. Ice and snow days being made redundant by the 2040s in the South. Perhaps a tad early for me, but for sure we are heading in that direction if urgent action is not admitted ASAP.. China, Russia, India, USA take note, follow the UKs lead and make us all breathe better again.. Worrying times though.

And tbh mate there are some positive signs amongst those 0z ens again.. Many options seem to be on the table, and we are most definitely in the game... I ain't been so excited since I stuffed the Turkey last year..

At first glance the 10 day ECM mean is above the op on those 850s,but not to worry folks I've just viewed the extended out to day 14, and the mean is coming down several degrees and more in line with the op, so it's not quite the outlier it looked at first glance... Could be a tad cold for Xmas.. That's the plan and current guidence anyway. @Mike Poole thanks for the heads up on that Winter watch programme, covering the 1963 Severe Winter... Its on the BBC i player folks... Well worth a watch.. Enjoy your evenings.

I think some are misreading that Exeter update.. For me the fact things have gone from mixed signals, to very very low confidence, and any outcome is possible tells me, that perhaps a serious strat development is lurking and could throw all options onto the table... I'm now feeling the next couple or so weeks could become interesting to say the least.. You only have to view those ensembles to gather many options are on the table, and a fair few blinders an all.. And I've only viewed a quarter of em.. Onwards and upwards good folk..

Big shout out to the mods here for letting this forum run quite smoothly, especially considering some seem to have lost the plot.. I get the frustration but really... Its weather, not the start of World War 3...in all honesty I'm just happy that so far me and Family have so managed to remain healthy while so many have passed during these horrid times... Sometimes I feel guilty for posting information regarding Long Range output when it points to a lack of cold! But I never give in, because like others have said, it can be wrong... There are so many factors at play that can quickly change those outcomes... Regarding Big Steve M I think he feels a little deflated, because he most definitely puts his Heart into it. But hey Steve never give in, there's so much time left, I understand Family comes first and it's important they come first... Quite the opposite of me really.. I come on here to get away from mine, and they're bloody glad... Top poster though mate, most definitely in my top 5. And I tell you what I sense a little excitement in a few of tonight's ensembles.. Yeh Yeh it's fi again, but sooner or later one of these will count down, I most definitely like the last one I'm posting. I've got a funny gif for you all also... Cheers me up a treat... Have a great Weekend folks, and when your feeling down just think of me, and that should make you feel worse..

100% agree with this statement... We have some exceptional knowledgeable posters on here and it makes for a great read. But the weather makes mugs of the best pros out there. I was kind of hoping that I would never see the day where we would have to end up praying for major SSW events just to deliver a cold snap.. But alas those days seem to have arrived.. I had a nightmare last night... Its the end of January... Still no cold snap... When all of a sudden we Start to get the first posts of...... Never mind, at least we will have some spring warmth to look forward to soon.. What a nightmare that was.. I'm not gonna derail the thread any longer with off topic posts.. Sorry Mods..

Yeh I get your point blue.. And yes that was exceptional... Those fab days of the early 80s freezes seem like an eternity though.. Every year back then come as know suprise when we had snow or cold snaps.. Back then the forecasters would just say... We have High Pressure building over Scandy....imcoming Estly... Possible undercuts from the Atlantic fronts.... Boom.. Jobs a good un... Now we have so much technical advances online it seems to have to be a work of art just to get a cold snap in. Most likely due to the fact that cold pools are decreasing. I'm not without hope just yet though... I ain't heard know fat lady sing just yet... But I can hear her clearing her throat in the rehearsal rooms..

So now Mike that's EC46 and Glosea not looking favourable. I got the impression from chatting with Tamara that she was thinking that this EC take on things was how she thought it could be panning out. This was prior to her post the other day when she had only had a brief look into things, but I got the impression from her post that things could end up being pretty difficult. If we can't get a favourable outcome with a favourable Hemisphere, what chance have we got! All of this is driving me nuts... A couple of years ago we had very positive background signals which didn't even devolop a cold snap... Last year we had the IOD that seem to be a major spanner in the works... Now so far this year favourable sypnotics seem to be going to waste.. I noticed when I checked the long range EC anomalies the other day, that large parts of Europe as well as the states are being shown to be warmer than avareage also.. So we are not alone. Its already been 10 years since we had significant and persistent cold, surely to god we are due a change of fortunes... But like you say Exeter don't seem to keen on the idea of any major SSW... Hopefully things will change... But my god things rapidly drift away once Xmas is out of the way..

Any fortunes with those 12z ens?? There are some of interest, hopefully more will devolop in the coming days. Winter is only just beginning... Anyone that says it all over at this early stage...... In the words of the late great Babs... God rest her soul... Get owt of ma pub...

Firstly thanks to @hurricane-anna for that level headed post.. In my opinion we need more female input on this thread.. Women are always correct seriously though we do. And secondly we need to see more of the chart I'm posting... Much much more.. Come on gang let's begin the chase after Xmas... At least when we are all sober

Thanks John,and very wise words from an old pro.. Pardon the pun. Now don't shoot me down for this folks, as I've pulled my neck and can't be doing to much ducking at present. That 46 run last night ends up pretty shocking as we move into January.. That persistent high Heights building around iberia and around Central Europe, coupled with Low Heights south of Greenland are gonna be a major Winter killer if things don't get shaken up sharpish! This is all along way off and could be wrong, those long range anomalies are also pretty stubborn in being a Winter killer.. To make a prediction I thinking we are going to need a major split to bring us some favourable sypnotics!! To put it bluntly we could be waiting several weeks... Patience is gonna be the key! I don't think it looks great right now, but I'm hoping that things may change, in the shorter term to mid term I just can't see it. Have a great Weekend.. There is life after the Weather, trust me my wife kept explaining this to me prior to leaving me for the milkman...

Let's clear this up.. Last night I mentioned Heights close to Xmas over the Greenland locale building, I think there was a tweet by Matt Hugo regarding this.. I had only viewed it up till the 26th of December! These Heights are not substantial, and are eroding pretty quickly.. As we move towards the backend of the month and early January Low Pressure is quite a dominant feature around Iceland, and we still have that problem of increasing Heights around Iberia... And thats pretty much what it's been hinting at for a few runs now. And tbh it doesn't seem to far away from what Exeter are going with. Anyone who sees this different, then i must have my blinkers on.. But it's not the best of runs.

Heights were looking better for the 2nd half the month Mike, I didn't view any further and made the assumption they would be falling away as we entered January.. I've only viewed up to the 26th of December.. I'm having trouble multi tasking here, I'm trying to watch Benidorm at the same time.. Gr8 post @DiagonalRedLine you do a grand job, and tbh most of you guys let this run pretty freely... So all good. @Mike PooleI said earlier the 46 looks more positive than the last few runs... Sorry if I got a little mixed up with my last post... Its all good my man... Its Christmassssssssz Oh and awesome summary @Uncertainy

Yes mate I pointed this out earlier, with a favourable strat event possible the long Range models would most likely not be taking this into account just yet, what's possibly going to unfold is well above the atmosphere and far to early for the models to come to grasp with just yet.. I'm also hopeful too of something shaping up next month, regardless of this current 46 run..

To push the boat out at this stage I would say with Low Pressure anchored towards Iceland and the flow not of a favourable position, a trend towards more unsettled and less cold conditions as we approach January... I'm aware Exeter are mentioning this also, and it looks close on the EC tonight.. Perhaps Daniele could shed a little more light on this.

Looking colder to me, and with Low Pressure in the mix some could see a bit of the white stuff. 60-40in favour of it being on the cold side for me.

Personally at this early stage the EC is looking a bit better at this stage.. Xmas week Low pressure is close by and temps are looking below avarage... But what I have noticed is Heights over Eastern Greenland approaching 1030mb..the earlier run pressure was much lower.. Correct me if I'm wrong but that's surely a better sign.

Not the best of extended means out to Xmas.. Pressure on the mean just under a 1000mb but with a large amount of spread on offer, some ensembles well above 1000mb other below... So i would say settled or unsettled is still in the balance and rather uncertain.. The mean 850s are around +5 come Xmas week, so the cold Christmas looking less likely... Roll on the end of this year 2021 is gonna be a barn stormer..

We have to keep our dreams and spirits up though mate... Its bad enough having to endure several days of the in laws this Xmas without having to view this dire output... Personally I think I need a tier 5 slapped on this house... That should keep em away like you say things grim at the MO, and I'm not expecting tonights 46 to offer much joy, at least in the shorter term. But again just check out that Marco tweet regarding the vortex... Its weakening bit by bit and slowing by the day... This could throw us one big life line in the next few weeks... Namely a major split. The fact its being mentioned by the pros shows how possible this is. And let's face it, the NH profile will be all over the place if this occurs, and it takes a while for the models to come to grips with! Let's make this place a very Happy place and enjoy our Xmas as much as we can... The search for cold begins shortly after, I've been saying this since 2010,but I'm bound to get it correct sooner or later.

You could of summed this post up much quicker.... THE CROWD ARE ON THE PITCH, THEY THINK ITS ALL OVER.... IT IS NOW!!! Big 46 coming up tonight, I don't fancy it will be offering much this side of Xmas, but hopefully will give us a little joy for into January... Could be a wait this one... Mid January or so. Plenty of time left though folks... Keep the faith.. I had hair before I joined this forum... The stress is great

Only problem is Alexis when we keep saying... Give it a few days, before we know it, the end of January as come and many on here will vacate the premises, and need 6 months in a rest home just to get over the experience. I hope to bring you all some joy this evening when the 46 rolls out.. I'm losing my patience with that model... Its one stubborn git... Nothing like the GFS that as multiple personalities, but I will try my best...